So, the other day I made a big announcement. Well, a big announcement for me. Probably doesn’t affect you all that much. But I posted a video on all my social channels announcing that my company, Fantasy Life, had finalized a deal to acquire Guillotine Leagues, a league manager platform that offers a very specific style of fantasy football. More on that later, but the reason I bring it up is because the reaction to the tweet was generally very kind.
People were excited for my friend Paul Charchian, the founder of Guillotine Leagues, to have sold his company. Fans of the format were excited by the new resources and upgrades Fantasy Life was making to the platform, including making it 100% free to play. And then there was Justin, aka @jjcav95, whose reaction to the video was “holy s*** matthew berry got old and I don’t know when it happened.”
Well, Justin, the answer is … always? Ha! I feel like I’ve looked old my entire life. Certainly ever since I’ve been on TV, which is closing in on 20 years. Genetics can be a bit**. But let’s be honest. I am kinda old.
Which may not make Justin happy, but is a benefit to you, gentle reader. Because you see, when you are old, it means you’re experienced. You’ve been there, done that. You have, as they say, seen some s***.
And that includes drafts. My first draft was actually an auction and it was a deep NL only 10 team fantasy baseball league. I was 14 years old.
Since that time, between mocks and real drafts, tens of thousands of drafts. Seriously, I’m sitting here calculating it and I’ve now done almost four decades of drafts. (Damn, Justin might really have a point.)
Every possible kind of format, sport, league type, on and on, seriously … if it exists, I’ve seen it, done it, bought the commemorative t-shirt.
And as a result, I’ve seen a LOT of what to do and even more of what NOT to do. And what I have realized is that, while there is no “one right way to do it,” there are a number of specific principles successful players all follow. As luck would have it, as it is every year, that’s what this article is about.
So brothers and sisters, friends of the revolution, I’d like to officially welcome you to the 26th edition of the often imitated, never duplicated, heart-stopping, knowledge-dropping, ADP-rocking, booty-shaking, strategy-making, earth-quaking, sleeper-taking, Springsteen-stealing, logic-justifying, death-defying, legendary DRAFT DAY MANIFESTO!
When you write a theory column for over a quarter century there is always going to be some familiarity. So, what follows are some thoughts that longtime readers will find familiar but there is also a lot that is new this year, including being updated based on 2023 results, the 2024 player pool and — as I was just reminding all the happy customers that bought the Fantasy Life Draft Champion tool, which allows you to customize your draft software to match whatever league size, format and strategy (zero RB? Punt TE?) that you need — there will also be some over-the-top, self-serving promotion and at least one new joke. (That wasn’t it).
Editor’s Note: The Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide is now available exclusively through a new partnership with Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life. Buy a FantasyLife+ subscription and get the Rotoworld Draft Guides, along with award-winning Fantasy, Betting & DFS tools. Use ROTO20 at checkout to save 20%!
As always, thanks to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. So let’s get to it.
After almost 40 years of drafting, I can tell you, with the utmost of certainty…
These are The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Drafters:
Habit 1: They spend a ton of time of preparing
Just because it seems obvious doesn’t mean it’s not true. Draft day mirrors many aspects of life, but perhaps none more than this: What you put into it, is what you get out of it. So you need to prep, but before you prep, you need to know exactly what you are prepping for.
And that starts with studying the rules and, more importantly, figuring out the best ways to exploit said rules. What’s the scoring? Because that obviously will impact the type of players you target. Is it half-PPR or full-PPR? Because over the past two seasons, 88% of the RBs who have finished top-12 in PPG in PPR scoring had a target share of at least 10%. The only ones who didn’t were Nick Chubb in 2022 and Raheem Mostert and Jonathan Taylor last season. Is there premium scoring for tight ends? Points for first downs? For long punts? Don’t laugh. I played in a punter league once. And crushed it like a grape, thank you very much.
Is this a dynasty league, where youth and talent should be more of a priority than current team role? Is it a Superflex or 2 QB league where elite QBs are much more of a priority than a 1 QB league? Is it a Guillotine League where the key is much more about week-to-week consistency and floor rather than upside? (In a Guillotine League, the lowest scoring team each week gets dropped from the league and all their players go into the free agent pool.)
What’s your typical starting lineup? Having to start 2 WRs vs 3 (or more) affects how you approach the RB position, especially early. (For example, 7 of my top-10 players this year and 5 of my top-6 are WR, but in a league where I only have to start two WRs I’d move Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson up in my rankings.)
What’s your roster size? How do you acquire free-agent players in your league? If it’s a free-agent budget, you can be a bit riskier on draft day because you will have a shot at every player if you need to replace someone. But if it’s a waiver system, it will be tougher to get the hot free agents, especially if the rules allow someone to sit on the top pick for multiple weeks. So, you’ll need to focus a little more on depth during the draft. Does your league have an IR spot? If so, how many? Being able to use IR spots allows you to take more chances on talented but injury-prone players, or players that are already hurt. For example, some leagues allow players who have an “OUT” designation to be placed in the IR spot, which means that if you draft DeAndre Hopkins or Josh Downs and they’re not ready to go by Week 1, you can place them into your IR slot and pick up an additional player. How about a spot for suspended players? If you play in a league with an NA spot, drafting players like Rashee Rice or Jordan Addison becomes much easier. In last year’s version of the manifesto, I used Alvin Kamara as the example here. Just think about how big of an advantage it was if you were able to stash Kamara (who finished as the RB3 in PPG in 2023) for those first three weeks without having to use a bench spot.
All of these questions lead to roster construction, which will be a key part of your draft-day success. Understanding roster size, how players are acquired during the season, and any roster restrictions you may have (a limit on the number of RBs, for example) will help you as you start to evaluate players. Can you fairly easily find solid production at various positions during the year via the waiver wire? If so, you can roster more “fliers.” Conversely, in deeper leagues where the free-agent pool is scarce, you’ll need some solid middle-of-the-road types to plug in during bye weeks and when injuries hit.
When do your playoffs start? How many teams make it? How are Week 14 byes going to affect your fantasy playoffs? With the NFL having moved to an 18-week season, some of these questions are more important than ever before.
Effective drafters also account for what platform they are playing on, because wherever you play, the draft is highly influenced by the default rankings in the draft room. People panic during a draft and often take the highest-ranked player available. Having a set of rankings you trust and believe in and comparing them to the default ranks of whatever site you play on will help you identify which players are going too early, which players are going too late, what market inefficiencies there are and how you can exploit them. For example, look at these current ADP differences between Yahoo and ESPN leagues (note: this ADP may already look different by the time you’re reading this, but this is how it was at the time of my writing).
Yahoo ADP vs. ESPN ADP Differences
Kyler Murray: 58.0 vs. 90.4
Jared Goff: 103.4 vs. 149.6
Josh Jacobs: 26.9 vs. 41.3
James Conner: 60.3 vs. 85.6
Raheem Mostert: 65.6 vs. 105.6
Brandon Aiyuk: 27.3 vs. 44.5
Deebo Samuel: 28.6 vs. 48.1
Amari Cooper: 50.3 vs. 83.4
Calvin Ridley: 95.8 vs. 74.6
Jake Ferguson: 79.5 vs. 100.4
Now, yes part of this is influenced by the fact that Yahoo default scoring is half-PPR whereas ESPN is full-PPR, but even that doesn’t explain some of these massive ADP gaps. Just think about how differently you would build your team if you could draft Kyler Murray in the 8th round instead of the 5th round. Or Deebo Samuel in the late 4th instead of the early 3rd. Use this information to your advantage and ensure you’re not reaching for players you don’t need to be. And one more related tip. If it’s a league where you know the other managers, you can add in notations about the tendencies of other drafters. (This one always reaches for young, buzzy players, this other one stockpiles quarterbacks, etc.).
Editor’s Note: Create or join a private Yahoo Fantasy league and enter the $1 Million in the NBC Sweepstakes. Download the redesigned Yahoo Fantasy app or click here for more details.
Finally, mock draft as much as possible, especially once you know what spot you are picking from. What happens if you go with Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce in the second round? What about a “Zero RB” or “Hero RB” approach? What if you go RB heavy and start your draft with 2-3 straight running backs? What if you take Josh Allen early? The more options you play with to see how your team turns out, the more prepared you will be when the real draft happens, and you’ll be much more comfortable adjusting on the fly.
To that end, I’m gonna once again plug the Fantasy Life Draft Champion tool. Yes, it’s self serving but it’s legit advice from me to you. Practice makes perfect. You can mock draft all of these scenarios. Want to import the ADP from Yahoo? Sleeper? ESPN? FFPC? Underdog? etc., etc. You can import ADP from eight different sources, choose your draft spot, choose your league settings, choose your league type (Best ball, dynasty, keeper, etc.) and choose how you draft (like, do you have a 3rd round reversal? Because Fantasy Life Draft Champion will let you mock with that).
You can choose both YOUR strategy (Hero RB, Zero RB, Punt TE, Early WR, Late Round QB, etc.) AND you can also choose what strategy you want for ALL OF THE OTHER DRAFTERS. If you know the guy in front of you is a Late Round QB guy and the person behind you will go more balanced, you can program that. You can also get draft grades and analysis of what you did right and where you can improve from both myself and many of our Fantasy Life experts. Seriously. We spent a year building it. It’s ridiculous. Oh, and it’s free.
Habit 2: They identify the relative depth at every position
Okay, you’ve identified ADP discrepancies on whatever site you’re drafting on, you know the rules and you have a strategy that is tailor made to your league’s scoring. You’ve read a ton and while you don’t have every stat memorized, you have a general opinion on every single player that is likely to get drafted in your league. Even if it’s just a “yay” or “nay.” But, I gotta tell you … it isn’t enough to just have an opinion on every potential player. You also need to understand every player’s value relative to every other player and the depth of that position as it relates to your roster needs. QB is deep, you say? Not if you play in a 14-team Superflex league. Then they start going quickly.
When you draft, you have to understand that you’re not just collecting as many good players as possible. You’re constructing a roster with specific and finite resources. You only have so many roster spots, so you need to maximize each one and part of doing that is understanding how easy or hard it will be to replace players during the season.
RELATED: Matthew Berry’s Latest Positional Rankings for 2024
Here’s a quick overview of how I see the positions this year:
Quarterback
It should be obvious by now, but the biggest factor in QB scoring is rushing production. It’s the number one reason why Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson routinely finish at the top of the position each season. It’s also why fantasy managers are so excited about the upside of players like Anthony Richardson and Jayden Daniels. Now, that’s not to say it’s impossible for a pocket-passer to deliver a top-5 QB season, it’s just far less likely. For example, for a player like Joe Burrow or Dak Prescott to reach that ceiling they essentially need to have a career year, whereas Allen or Hurts can do so even while having a subpar season by their standards.
Consider this. Last season in Week 2, Anthony Richardson scored 17.7 fantasy points. He did so while playing a total of 17 plays in that game (he was knocked out with a concussion early in the second quarter). Can you imagine how hard it would be for a non-rushing QB to score almost 18 points in essentially one quarter? Now, the good news is there are more mobile QBs in the NFL than ever before. Even players who you may not think of as big runners such as Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence all make strong contributions with their legs.
So when it comes to my QB strategy for 2024, it’s really quite simple. I want a QB who runs. I have no issue paying up for Allen or Hurts because aside from their elite ceilings, those two players also offer an unmatched level of consistency. Patrick Mahomes (quietly 389 rushing yards last year, behind only Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen among starting or potentially starting QBs this year) and the aforementioned Lamar are also strong options early on. But if you miss out, don’t worry, there’s still Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels as fallback options.
On the other hand, I probably won’t have a ton of C.J. Stroud this season. Not because I don’t think he’s going to have a great year, but because you can likely get 80% of that production from a Dak Prescott or Brock Purdy at a much lower cost. That said, if you’re going to choose a pocket passer, you likely don’t want to wait too long. Given the current landscape of the position, it’s going to be an uphill battle to build a dominant team with a pocket passer like Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins or an Aaron Rodgers as your starting QB.
Running back
The RB landscape is particularly difficult to evaluate because it differs so much from league to league. If you’ve been doing Bestball drafts all summer, you’re probably convinced RB production is cheaper than it’s ever been before. But a quick look at the early ADPs on Yahoo and ESPN shows that more casual drafters are still often hammering the position in the early rounds. So, especially in leagues where you are only required to start two wide receivers, I’ve often found myself leaning towards a “Hero” or “Anchor” RB strategy in order to maximize value. This partly depends on draft slot, but one way to do this is by starting your team with one of Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson and then ignoring the position for the next few rounds. This could also be done with Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor or Derrick Henry, especially if you pick towards the end of Round 1 and went WR at the end of the first, but you’re giving up a lot of receiving production if you choose that route.
Probably my most common roster build to this point is a modified version of this strategy where I have ended up with a lot of Isiah Pacheco and sometimes Joe Mixon as my RB1, especially in situations where I felt the ADP value was too good to pass up. (Pacheco specifically is gonna have a monster year).
Part of the reason you can get away zero RBs or just one RB early is because, once again, there is a lot of what I like to call “cheap volume” from RBs in the 4th through 7th rounds. It varies by site, but among the RBs going in the 4th round or later on Yahoo as of this writing include guys like David Montgomery, Alvin Kamara and James Conner.
I’ll also say that, continuing a trend from the past few seasons, I once again find the RB 25-35 range very appealing. Based on current Yahoo ADP, Jaylen Warren, Brian Robinson, and Tony Pollard are all going past pick 90 and I’m more than happy to land any of those players as my RB2 in builds where I already have 3-4 very strong WRs as well as a high-end QB and TE. Or as an upside RB3 if you get an anchor RB, a cheap RB volume guy in the 4th to 6th round range, have a strong WR core and have decided to wait on one of TE or QB.
If you find yourself feeling thin at RB in the later rounds, you can always find super cheap volume in the form of guys like Devin Singletary or Ezekiel Elliott, but my preferred strategy in that area of the draft is to focus on the younger, more exciting upside options such as Chase Brown, Tyjae Spears, Zach Charbonnet, Jonathan Brooks and Blake Corum. Yes, the range of outcomes on those players is much wider, but so is their contingent upside. (We’ll get to that more in a bit).
And finally, as an overall approach to the position, you want to target volume and high-value touches (receptions and red zone opportunities). Remember, the talent of the player matters, but it’s far less correlated to fantasy production at RB than at any of the other positions. (In other words, bad RBs can easily get to fantasy production as long as they have volume and high-value touches).
RELATED: Denny Carter explains why he’s drafting “boring” RBs this year
Wide receiver
The top of this position is once again absolutely loaded with high-end talent. I could honestly see any of my top-10 ranked WRs finishing as the WR1 this season without even having to squint much. And the depth at the position is equally impressive. Tee Higgins was being picked on the 2/3 turn last season and now he’s going as the WR25 on Yahoo. Keenan Allen finished as the WR3 in PPG last season and currently has an ADP of 86 on ESPN, which again primarily uses PPR scoring. Yes, both players have notable injury concerns, but the point remains that you’re able to get massive upside at a very discounted price. Because of this, I really want to attack the position with volume in the early to middle rounds and try to essentially be done drafting receivers before we get outside the top-50 or so at the position. A scenario where I can grab Diontae Johnson as my WR4 and add one of Christian Watson, Jordan Addison, Xavier Worthy or Ladd McConkey as a WR5 almost feels too good to be true, but it’s going to be totally realistic in a lot of leagues. Drafting a couple more rookies in the later rounds is never a bad idea, but unless you’re in a very deep league, I’d much rather use my later picks on insurance backs than low-upside depth WRs such as Tyler Lockett or Jakobi Meyers.
Tight end
In the past, I’ve often said that I either want to be the first person in my league to draft a TE or the last, but this season I find myself doing the exact opposite. The top-10 at the position is suddenly filled with exciting options whereas the late-round fliers just don’t seem as appealing as in years past. Now, part of that certainly has do to with the elite tier where Travis Kelce’s dominance of the position finally seems to be slowing down. Remember, in 2022, Kelce scored 100 more points than the TE2. Meanwhile in 2023, four other TEs finished within roughly one point per game of Kelce. I still have Kelce ranked as my TE2, but if you look at my overall rankings I only have him a few spots ahead of Trey McBride and Mark Andrews.
So, I find it very hard to draft Sam LaPorta or Kelce at the 2/3 turn, which is where they’re currently going on Yahoo, when I can instead wait and get either McBride or Andrews at the 4/5 turn. In addition, I think Dalton Kincaid, Evan Engram and Kyle Pitts are all fairly priced while Jake Ferguson has been one of my most drafted players thus far. And let’s not forget David Njoku was the TE2 in PPG over his final 11 games last season. If you do happen to play in a deeper league or one that uses TE premium scoring, Pat Freiermuth and Noah Fant are two of the late-round options I’ve been targeting the most. And based on early reports from Saints camp, Taysom Hill is going to be a cheat code on platforms where he has TE eligibility.
Habit 3: They abide by the one big secret of fantasy football
At a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis. That’s it. It’s that simple. From the time you read this article until the end of your season, every single thing you do leads back to that very simple, but rarely followed approach.
Every draft pick, waiver move, potential trade, start/sit decision and so on. Everything. I can’t predict the future. Neither can you. Neither can anyone else. So all you can do is minimize risk, give yourself the best odds to succeed every week, make the best call you can in the moment and let the chips fall where they may.
Minimizing risk means you understand what the most likely outcomes are in each situation. And by doing that it allows you to maximize the upside shots you take.
I believe way too many players (and fantasy analysts, to be honest) complicate things more than they need to. None of us can fully predict the future, so we are just playing the odds. It’s not guaranteed, but what’s most likely to happen?
For example, Josh Allen has finished as a top-2 fantasy QB in four straight seasons. He’s averaged at least 23 PPG in each of those seasons. What’s most likely to happen?
Chris Godwin scored two touchdowns on 130 targets last season. He converted only one of his 10 end zone targets. He was the only WR with over 1,000 receiving yards and fewer than three touchdowns. What’s most likely to happen this year?
RELATED: Berry’s 100 Facts You Need To Know Before You Draft in 2024
Arizona selected Marvin Harrison Jr. with the No. 4 overall pick in the NFL draft. Since 2010, five of the six WRs drafted inside the top-5 saw at least 115 targets in their rookie seasons. The Cardinals do not currently have a WR on the roster with a career target share above 15%. What’s most likely to happen with MHJ?
Derrick Henry has led the NFL in rush attempts in four of the past five seasons. He has six straight seasons with at least 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Since Lamar Jackson became the starting QB in 2019, Baltimore RBs are averaging a league-high 4.8 YPC. What’s most likely to happen?
Greg Roman offenses have ranked 27th or lower in passing offense in eight of his 10 seasons as an offensive coordinator. They’ve ranked top-three in rush attempts in seven of those seasons. During Jim Harbaugh’s tenure as head coach, the 49ers ranked 2nd in rush rate and 31st in pass attempts. What’s most likely to happen with the Chargers’ offense this year?
And on and on and on. You get it.
Now, most likely to happen doesn’t mean it WILL happen. It just means it’s much more likely to happen than not. And that’s all we can ask for. It’s like Blackjack. Staying when your cards are 17 or above doesn’t mean you’ll win every hand. It just means your odds of winning those hands over time is much more likely. Same in fantasy football.
If you consistently play the odds, you’ll win a lot more than you won’t. And when you are evaluating players before and during the draft, as well as when you are building your team, that’s what you need to do. Just remember once again: At a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis. So always ask yourself ... what’s most likely to happen?
Habit 4: They use rankings flexibly and in context
Whether they are your own, someone else’s, a consensus of multiple people or even just the default ones in the draft room, when you draft you are going to have a set of rankings. They are certainly helpful, but they should be used only as a guideline, and more so in the early parts of the draft. Once you get your first five players, it really becomes about roster construction based on what positions you need to fill, how much risk you’ve already taken and how the draft is playing out, taking into account all the factors we’ve already discussed.
I say this speaking as someone who spends an inordinate amount of time on his rankings, but no list is going to nail end-of-season value, especially if you consider weekly variance.
RELATED: Matthew Berry’s Top 200 Overall Rankings for 2024
Let’s use Christian Kirk and George Pickens as the example here. I currently have Kirk ranked as my WR28 and Pickens as my WR29.
Over at FantasyLife.com, my friend Dwain McFarland has Kirk and Pickens back-to-back in his 2024 projections. He has Kirk projected for 223 points and Pickens for 222.8. I mean could it get any closer?
And last season, Kirk finished as the WR33 in PPG (12.5), barely ahead of Pickens who was the WR36 at 12.3 PPG.
But let’s take a closer look at how their 2023 seasons played out.
Kirk played 11 full games, scoring at least 12.9 PPR points in eight of them. But he only had one game where he scored more than 19 points. Still, he gave us solid production in 73% of his healthy games.
Pickens, meanwhile, exceeded 12.9 PPR points in only five of his 17 games. In fact, he scored single-digit fantasy points in 59% of his games last season. But he did have four games with over 20 points, including a 26-point game in Week 5 and a 35-point game in Week 16.
So, which WR would you rather have? Well, I guess it depends, right? There were a few weeks last season where Pickens might’ve single handedly won you your matchup. But there were many more where you likely lost because he only scored six or seven points. Whereas Kirk was far less volatile. He may not have had any monster games, but there’s a ton of value in knowing you’re locking in 12 to 15 points every single week.
The Kirk/Pickens example is a good exercise for how to use rankings within the context of the team you’re building. Their ADPs on Yahoo right now are unsurprisingly very similar, but unless you have a hard stance on which player you think will be better, it comes down to roster fit. If you’ve already drafted several volatile players and need to add some consistency, Kirk’s high floor should be very appealing. Conversely, if you already have another high-floor, low-ceiling WR such as Michael Pittman Jr., then pairing him with a player like Pickens is a good way to add some more upside to your roster.
Habit 5: They focus on winning weeks
It’s very simple, but so many people forget that fantasy football is a weekly game. Let’s go back to the George Pickens example one more time. You could say his 35-point game in Week 16 single-handedly won you a playoff matchup.
That’s IF you started him. Big if. Consider that over the eight weeks prior to that 35-point game vs. Cincinnati in Week 16, Pickens was WR59. He was averaging just 7.8 PPG and had scored single-digit fantasy points in seven of his prior eight games. Not only did many people have him benched, but most teams that had Pickens either didn’t make the playoffs to begin with or did so despite him.
And that’s the crucial part. It’s not enough to have players who score a lot. It’s important to know WHEN to start them.
Starting elite players like CeeDee Lamb (or Eights as I call him) is easy. In theory, your first five picks should all be CeeDee Lambs -- the players you will start every week, barring injury or a bye.
But what about the rest of your lineup? Once I get to the middle of my drafts, I no longer seek players who are consistent high-floor performers. Because they’re all gone. Now, I want players who could wind up as an elite option at a position in any given week, and that I feel I’ll have a chance to see it coming.
I used to call this the “Never James White Rule”.
James White was a solid fantasy football player during his peak. From 2016-2019, White was the RB25 in PPG. But for those playing in standard-sized leagues, James White never had as much fantasy value as that ranking would lead you to believe. The reason being, he very rarely had 20-point games that could win you a week. It was just a consistent stream of 10-12-point games that added up over time.
Now, compare that to a player like Khalil Herbert. Despite being a very efficient rusher, Herbert has had minimal standalone value throughout his three NFL seasons. But in each of those seasons, he’s had multiple big games. From 2021-2022, while David Montgomery was still in Chicago, Montgomery missed four games and left two others very early due to injury. In those six games, Khalil Herbert averaged 21.5 touches and 16.0 fantasy points. And last season when the Bears decided to make D’Onta Foreman a healthy scratch for the final three games of the season (Weeks 16-18), Herbert once again stepped in and averaged 18.3 touches and 15.4 PPG. Now, Herbert’s case may not be quite as black and white as the Alexander Mattison example I’ve used in the past, but there’s no denying most of his best games came in situations where we should have expected him to see increased usage.
This is why I say rankings are just a loose guideline and in many ways their accuracy in the context of a full season doesn’t matter on a week-to-week basis.
Some players to draft in later rounds this year using the “Never James White Rule,” include Ty Chandler, Zach Charbonnet and Blake Corum. Aaron Jones turns 30 in December and is coming off a season in which he missed six games with hamstring and knee injuries. Chandler, meanwhile, averaged over 15 touches in his four starts at the end of last season and showed impressive upside with a 24-point game against the Bengals in Week 15. If Jones were to get injured again, Chandler instantly becomes a viable FLEX play. As for Charbonnet, in the three games that Kenneth Walker III missed last season, he averaged 19.7 touches along with a 77% snap rate. Given his three-down skill set, you can feel very confident in Charbonnet carrying the load in games where Walker doesn’t play. And finally, there’s Blake Corum. Everything from Rams camp thus far says they love the guy, and while I do believe Kyren Williams is still the clear lead back, he’s also missed at least five games in both of his NFL seasons. If Williams were to suffer another injury, Corum would immediately step into one of the most RB-friendly offenses in all of fantasy.
As you are filling out your bench, you need to view it in the context of the quality of players available on the waiver wire. Now, don’t go wild. Drafting a high number of boom-or-bust players makes sense only if you know you can easily find viable production on the waiver wire during bye weeks or in case of injury. But the positive is that it won’t cost much draft-day capital for these upside types. They generally will be ranked much lower in pre-draft, season-long rankings than they will be ranked during the weeks when you know you’ll need to use them. That’s why I don’t want to reach for players like Chuba Hubbard – who is on a low-scoring offense and will likely lose his job to Jonathan Brooks before midseason -- when Tyler Allgeier comes cheaper despite being a Bijan Robinson injury away from becoming a must-start option.
RELATED: RotoPat’s Boom/Bust Players in 2024
Habit 6: They are adaptable and trust themselves above all others
Obviously, you should be watching, reading, and listening to as much as possible before you draft, and that means all August. Start with Fantasy Football Happy Hour on YouTube, Peacock and wherever you get podcasts! This will help you have an opinion on every player. You don’t need to memorize every stat or break down every play, but just have a general sense of whether you are “pro” or “con” the player and what general value you give him. Because, as Mike Tyson likes to say, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
The point is, you never know what to expect during a draft. There can be extreme runs and there can be drafters who have wildly different values than you, so players you didn’t expect to be available are there for the taking. And there may be someone drafting in front of you using your exact rankings they printed from NBCSports.com and laughing as they draft the player you wanted while commenting, “Hahaha do you LOVE this pick, Berry?!”
That last one may be only specific to me.
But highly effective drafters are the ones who don’t enter with a specific hard-and-fast strategy. By doing the work and being prepared, by mock drafting like it’s your job, by being flexible, you’ll be able to adapt on the fly and you won’t let your draft be dictated by anyone or anything, but you.
Habit 7: They approach the draft as just the first step toward success
Just because draft day is the most important day, that doesn’t mean it’s the only important day. You don’t have to win the league during your draft. In fact, it’s unlikely that you will. If your fantasy football season is a building under construction, then the draft is the foundation. If there’s a run on quarterbacks, instead of forcing it and reaching early for a guy in the tier below, grab another wide receiver. Give yourself some surplus so you have something to trade. Trust me, another lower-tier quarterback will still be there next round.
And this goes with what I was talking about in terms of not sweating rankings or ADP too much and going for upside, because you’re likely dropping some of these guys on the way to glory anyway. Last year, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Jordan Love and Rashee Rice were all waiver wire pickups. Trey McBride, another in-season add, was the TE3 since taking over as the starter in Week 8. Happens every year.
And remember, sometimes a winning waiver pickup is someone you only need for a couple weeks. Zack Moss had only two games with double-digit fantasy points from Week 7 on, but the 20.7 PPG he averaged in Weeks 2-6 while filling in for Jonathan Taylor was likely enough to bank your fantasy team a couple extra wins early on.
Your fantasy season will be a constant work in progress, so understand that as you construct your team on draft day it’s not just about acquiring players in the draft, and later via free agency and trade, but ultimately how you use them. In-season roster decision making will be crucial for you to get that championship. But that’s a story for “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective In-Season Managers.”
