We’re almost two weeks into NFL preseason and the final weeks of fantasy football draft season are before us, so we have no time to waste. Today we’ll continue our discussion of D/ST strategy by focusing specifically on your approach to drafting a D/ST in all your fantasy football leagues. (If you missed last week’s article with my full DST Rankings, make sure to check that out here.)
While many people will say, “Who cares? I just stream” or “Just take whoever’s left in the last round,” I do believe we can maximize the effectiveness of our drafts with just a touch of strategy. Drafting a D/ST doesn’t have the same make-or-break consequence as drafting your first-round wide receiver or your sleeper RB in the middle rounds, but it is still a decision with ripple effects that can cost you one week or potentially more during your season.
In short, every position on your team is worthy of some modicum of thought.
With that said, in this article, I’ll lay out my general strategy for drafting defense in five easy bullet points with the last one being some of the teams that I’m targeting in drafts based on my guidelines. Some of this will carry over from last year as there are certain principles I feel strongly about, but I’ve dug into the numbers a little bit more this offseason to try and offer new insights.
Let’s dive in.
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#1: Never be the First Person to Draft a D/ST
OK, obviously if you have the first pick in the last or second-to-last round and no defenses have been taken, you can be the first, but that also rarely happens. Another way to put it is this: D/ST and kicker should be your last two picks.
I know some people will tell you that it’s OK to pick a defense early if you want to get a particular unit, but the data suggests that has not been a solid draft strategy that often.
In 2017, ESPN analyzed 15 years of ADP data and found that ONLY TWO TIMES over 15 seasons did a D/ST that was drafted first, second, third, or fourth, according to ADP, actually finish as the top-ranked fantasy defense. That means only two times had the top 60 D/STs selected wound up as the best D/ST. Let that sink in for a second. Those are atrocious odds of landing the best D/ST just by picking the first one. Generally, we want to avoid doing something that has a 3.3% success rate.
You could say, “Well, at least I know I’ll be getting a good defense if I draft the first one,” and that seems logical on the surface, but, according to the ESPN data, “the actual average end-of-season placement in those 15 seasons for the top four D/STs drafted was 10th.”
It hasn’t gotten much better recently.
According to FantasyPros, the 49ers were the first defense drafted in 2023, with an ADP of pick 102 overall. They finished as the 10th-ranked defense last year, averaging 8.3 points per game. The top unit last year was Dallas, who was the fourth defense drafted with an ADP of 127. They finished with 10.5 points per game. The Ravens finished second with 10.2 points per game but were the seventh defense drafted with an ADP of 156, and the Browns were also in the top five, finishing with an average of 9.0 points per game despite being the 16th-ranked defense drafted with an ADP of 238.
In fact, six of the top 10 defenses at the end of last season were drafted outside of the top five defenses and two of them were drafted outside of the top 10 overall defenses. That means the first 10 defenses drafted were mostly pretty good in 2023, but it didn’t really matter if you took one of the top five defenses in the draft or the next five.
In 2022 the Bills were the first D/ST off the board by ADP in 2022 going 118th overall. The Bills finished as the fourth-ranked defense that year, scoring 8.9 points per game, which isn’t bad. Meanwhile, the Patriots had an ADP of 12th amongst D/STs and finished that season as the top-scoring unit in most league formats.
In 2021, the Rams were the first D/ST drafted, being selected 103rd overall on average. They finished as the 12th-ranked defense, averaging 7.1 points per game. The top D/ST that year was Dallas with 10.9 points per game with New England behind them at 9.3 points per game. Dallas was the 24th-ranked D/ST by ADP, while the Patriots were ninth.
So, again, do not feel the need to jump your league-mates and draft “the best” defense a few rounds early.
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#2: Never Draft More Than One DST
I know the above stats may have you thinking, “Maybe I should draft two defenses to improve my chances of landing the top defense.” My answer to that would be a pretty simple, “No.”
While I am in favor of holding two defenses later on in the season so that you can play your matchups without having to cut bait on a good DST, there is simply no argument in favor of holding a D/ST on your roster during the preseason over a lottery ticket running back or wide receiver.
In fact, if your league doesn’t force you to draft a D/ST, I might not even draft one, and I’m the guy who writes about defenses every week.
I’d much rather be drafting a position player who could win a job in the preseason and emerge as a difference-maker for me. If you’re in a format like ESPN, you can complete your draft and then cut the kicker or defense they make you draft in order to scoop up another position player if you see somebody you like. Then you just drop your two worst players for a K and D/ST right before Week 1.
#3: When in Doubt, Hunt for Turnovers
If you follow my defense rankings each week then you know that I created the Best Overall Defense (BOD) formula that uses a few underlying metrics I really like to try and rank defenses based on which unit I think is doing the most helpful things on the field to consistently provide fantasy success. That means I don’t just look at points allowed or total sacks, but I look at pressure rate, passes defended, turnover rate, and the rate at which opponent’s drives end in points. The goal is to find defenses that aren’t getting lucky or aren’t just benefiting from good matchups but are consistently strong units.
In the offseason, I went back over all the data, marking down where each team ranked 1-32 in every stat that I used. I then looked at the top 10 overall defenses and saw how many of them also finished in the top 10 in a given metric.
Five of the top 10 defenses finished in the top 10 in explosive plays allowed per game, and five of the top 10 overall defenses also finished top 10 in quarterback hit rate and passes defended per dropback, which is nice to see. However, seven of the top 10 overall defenses also finished top 10 in turnover rate. That may not surprise you, but it’s better than the sack leaders and equal to the scoring rate leaders.
This means that if you’re deciding between two defenses, the team that will force the most turnovers is likely more important than who will get the most sacks and equally as important to who will prevent the most points.
In 2022, all of the Patriots, Cowboys, and 49ers, who were the elite defenses that year, finished in the top six in turnover rate. The Cowboys and Patriots were also top four in sacks, but the 49ers were 11th. The Cowboys and Patriots were also each in the top seven in pressure rate, but the 49ers were 11th.
In 2021, the Patriots and Cowboys were both top three in turnovers, while the Dolphins were 10th; yet, the Dolphins were the only D/ST of the three to finish in the top 13 in sacks with the Cowboys finishing 14th and the Patriots 19th. But they were all top 10 in pressure rate.
I know this is an inexact science, but it’s just one way of saying that, in the draft or early in the season while we are still figuring out these defenses, a defense with a strong turnover rate has a better chance of finishing as a top tier defense than one that has a high sack total or allows the fewest yards per play.
Shoot, the Chiefs finished second in points per game allowed last year but finished as the 12th-ranked defense and the 49ers finished third in points per game allowed but were the 10th-ranked defense. Points allowed can get you to a solid unit but not necessarily the best fantasy defense.
Obviously, before Week 1, it’s hard to figure out which D/ST will be more turnover-happy, but we can target specific offenses that we believe will be prone to turnovers (see more below) or bet on the strength of a team’s secondary since that’s where the majority of turnovers come from. In that regard, PFF ranked the best cornerback units and safety units in the NFL. With the top three units being the Jets, 49ers, and Bills. That could mean that in a tiebreaker type of scenario early in the season, siding with one of those six teams would be beneficial. (However, we should also note that the Bills had safeties Mike Edwards and Cole Bishop suffer injuries since that article was published and that might change their ranking).
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#4: Plan Just Two or Three Weeks at a Time
Even with everything I said above, we’re not looking to find the top D/ST when we leave the draft room. Every week in my comment section I hear about “set it and forget it” defenses, but I bristle at that term. It is incredibly rare to find a defense like that and even more rare to find that in the draft or the early weeks of the season.
Sure, it would be great to land the 2023 Raiders D/ST in drafts considering they were drafted 17th amongst D/STs last season and finished seventh at the end of the year. However, before Week 8, the Raiders DST averaged just 4.4 points per game and scored a TOTAL of six points in the first four weeks. You would have almost assuredly dropped them and had to pick them back up on the waivers when they got hot.
The same goes for the 2021 Dolphins defense that was drafted 14th but finished third at the end of the year. They scored more than six points just once before Week 9, including four weeks from Week 4-7 where they had 10 TOTAL POINTS. You can find examples like that in every single season. More often than not, the best defenses will emerge as the year goes on, which means we want to be taking things two to three weeks at a time so we can get ahead of the next hot streak before it happens.
This means that, in my opinion, we’re not technically streaming defenses every single week as much as we’re managing risk to ensure we get the most production out of our defense without having to spend too much waiver money. If you just go one week at a time, you’ll often have to pay more than you’d like to land your top D/ST of the week, and oftentimes a good defense in a bad matchup will score a similar number of points to a mediocre defense in a good matchup. You’d rather have saved the waiver dollars or priority than gotten the two extra points from your new defense if you just have to drop them next week because they have a bad matchup.
#5: Draft With Week 1 in Mind but Don’t Overrate it
This is my way of saying that you want to play matchups and look for a good Week 1 matchup in the draft, but you don’t want that to overshadow a strong early-season schedule overall. For example, the Saints play the Panthers in Week 1, and I like that matchup, but then they get the Cowboys and Eagles the two weeks afterward, which would likely mean you’re already going to be on the wire looking for a new defense in Week 2.
Instead of drafting solely for Week 1, I’d look at a defense like the Seahawks, who play the Broncos and Patriots in the first two weeks and might not require waiver moves until week three. Or even a D/ST like the Eagles, who play the Packers, Falcons, Saints, and Bucs in the first four weeks.
I’m not saying to take a team like that over the top D/STs if they fall into your lap, but I am saying that looking beyond just one week at a time can help you maximize the talent on your roster and also keep you positioned to make moves of consequence later in the season.
#6: Target (and Avoid) These Defenses
So, with all of that said, what defenses am I going into the draft looking to take?
If I’m positioned to wait and get any of the Steelers, 49ers, or Cowboys then I’ll jump because I’m not scared off by any of their matchups. I’d still probably also take the Jets or Browns if they fell to me because their defenses are really strong, but the Jets get the 49ers in Week 1 and the Browns get the Cowboys, so I don’t love those matchups.
If I don’t get the opportunity to grab one of those teams, then I like Houston, who is ranked seventh for me in my season-long rankings, and get the Colts, Bears, Vikings, and Jags to start the season. None of those may be slam dunk matchups, but none of them are bad matchups either, and I like this Texans defense. I also like the Packers’ defense as a fringe top-10 unit this year and while they get a tough Eagles matchup in Week 1, they follow that up with games against the Colts, Titans, Vikings, Rams, and Cardinals. I think I can withstand the Eagles to get those other matchups.
In deeper formats, I’m also targeting the Eagles considering they have four games I like to start the season against the Packers, Falcons, Saints, and Bucs. I know the Eagles’ defense wasn’t great last season, and the Packers’ offense could be solid, but enduring that first matchup to get the next three is intriguing to me in deeper formats. We’re all bullish on the Falcons offense this season, but we haven’t seen it click yet and it may take a few weeks to truly get going, and I’m not a big believer in the Saints and Bucs offenses.
I also like Denver, who start the season with eight matchups that don’t scare me (Seahawks, Steelers, Bucs, Jets, Raiders, Chargers, Saints, Panthers), and I also like Cincinnati, who gets the Patriots, then the Chiefs potentially without Hollywood Brown, Commanders, and Panthers. You could also turn to Seattle, who gets the Broncos and Patriots to start the year, and, in deeper formats, you could target the Chargers, who get the Raiders, Panthers, and Steelers to start the year.
Under no circumstances could I see myself drafting the Chiefs and Jaguars because I don’t see a way I’d want to start them in Week 1 and, as rule three said, I don’t want two defenses on my team outside of really deep formats. As I mentioned above, I also won’t reach for the Jets or Browns, even though I like them as defenses because I’d rather not play the Jets against the 49ers or the Browns against the Cowboys. I’ll take them if they fall to me, but I don’t want to draft a defense that scares me in Week 1.
Hopefully some of that was helpful. I’ll be back next week with more analysis on my favorite deep league D/STs to target in drafts and you can follow me here and on Twitter (@SamskiNYC) for my weekly rankings/discussion all season long.
Happy drafting.