Tune in to the Rotoworld Football Draft Marathon this Thursday!
We’re entering one of the biggest weekends for fantasy football drafts, so I know you’re clamoring for your defense/special teams (DST) content. So far this offseason I’ve put out my rankings and walked you through my general strategy for drafting defenses. Today, we’re going to look at my favorite defenses to draft in deeper formats.
For our purposes, deep formats will be any leagues with more than 12 teams, so these will be my favorite DSTs currently going outside the top 12 in ADP. As of now, the top 12 DSTs by ADP, using Yahoo average ADP, which can be found on Fantasy Life, are the 49ers, Ravens, Jets, Cowboys, Browns, Chiefs, Steelers, Dolphins, Bills, Giants, Patriots, and Raiders.
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that if I’m positioned to wait and get any of the Steelers, 49ers, or Cowboys then I’ll jump because I’m not scared off by any of their matchups. I also like taking the first defense I’ll discuss below or the Giants because they open the season with the Vikings and Commanders. If all 12 of the above defenses are gone (some of which I’m not even remotely looking to select in drafts), then who would I be going after?
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Houston Texans (Yahoo ADP: 15th DST)
Houston is my seventh-ranked defense in my season-long rankings thanks to finishing 2023 third in quarterback hit rate (14th in sacks) and sixth in passes defended per game. They were also middle of the pack (16th) in explosive play rate allowed and opponent’s scoring rate, and I think they’ll only get better in their second season under DeMeco Ryans, who is a tremendous defensive coach.
In the offseason, they lost leading tackler Blake Cashman as well as DTs Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins, who were third and fourth on the team in sacks. Yet, they brought in DE Danielle Hunter after his 16-sack season with the Vikings, and DE Denico Autry, who had 11.5 sacks for the Titans, so their pass rush should be even more explosive. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. is now in his third season, but only played in 11 games last year and the Texans should get more out of third-year safety Jalen Pitre. Plus, they also added CB Kamari Lassiter in the second round, safety Calen Bullock in the third, and signed LB Azeez AL-Shaair, who thrived under Ryans in San Francisco, so this defense is deeper and has more playmakers than last year.
All of this means that the Texans have the makings of a sleeper defense for 2024, and they get the Colts, Bears, Vikings, and Jags to start the season. While only the Vikings may be slam dunk matchups, none of them are bad matchups either, and I like this Texans defense, so they’re a pick I love in drafts.
Chicago Bears (Yahoo ADP: 16th DST)
The Bears were my 13th-ranked defense in my preseason rankings article after finishing strong in the second half of the 2023 season, ranking fifth in fantasy points per game from Week 11 on. They got solid production after trading for DE Montez Sweat and were first in interceptions over the timeframe while allowing just 17.7 points and 324 yards per game. While I don’t fully believe in their performance over that stretch and wish they had added some depth to the interior of their defensive line, I do love the move to sign two-time All-Pro safety Kevin Byard. Young defensive tackles Gervon Dexter Sr. and Zacch Pickens flashed last year, so perhaps they can take a step forward in bigger roles, and the Bears brought Jaylon Johnson back to play alongside second-year cornerback Tyrique Stevenson, who should continue to improve, so this defense could take another step forward and be a fringe top-12 defense on the season.
Pair that with the fact that the offense should be much better and put this defense in fewer bad spots, and this Bears defense becomes a lot more interesting. I also love that four of their first five games are against the Titans, Colts, Rams, and Panthers. If I miss out on the Texans, I’m happy to wait and take the Bears.
Green Bay Packers (Yahoo ADP: 18th DST)
Unless, of course, I take the Packers, who I like as a fringe top-10 unit this year. Yes, the Packers’ defense was not great last year, ranking 27th in DVOA while finishing 23rd in turnover rate, and 25th in opponent’s scoring rate, but they also finished seventh in pressure rate and 10th in passes defended per game, so this is a defense that was around the ball a lot. The pass rush is good, and I think the turnover issues will be helped by healthy seasons from CBs Jaire Alexander, who played in seven games last year, and Eric Stokes, who played in just three. The Packers also signed safety Xavier McKinney and used second-round picks on LB Edgerrin Cooper and safety Javon Bullard to add even more talent to the back seven of the defense. It’s a series of moves that could make them a top-12 defense in 2024.
While they get a tough Eagles matchup in Week 1, they follow that up with games against the Colts, Titans, Vikings, Rams, and Cardinals. I think I can withstand the Eagles to get those other matchups. At worst, I’m making the Packers a priority on waivers after Week 1.
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Denver Broncos (Yahoo ADP: 23rd DST)
As I mentioned in my draft strategy article, I like looking beyond just Week 1 when drafting a defense because I don’t want to have to spend any waiver money or worry about waiver priority streaming a defense in Week 2 when I can be using those precious resources to scoop up a WR or RB who showed out in Week 1 and seems locked into a meaningful role. That means I like drafting defenses that have a few good matchups in a row.
Well, the Broncos start the season with these eight games: Seahawks, Steelers, Bucs, Jets, Raiders, Chargers, Saints, Panthers. We assume the Seahawks will be a solid offense, but Geno Smith is not a quarterback we actively need to avoid, and Tyler Lockett has been banged-up which could impact this offense off the bat. We also have this assumption that the Jets offense will be good, but that’s not a given. We know Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are studs, but where are the other playmakers on offense? How good or how mobile is Aaron Rodgers? Is he just a statue who will take a lot of sacks? Is this going to be a low-scoring ball-control offense that relies on its defense? I don’t know that the Jets will be so tough on offense that I’ll want to dump Denver and risk missing games against the Raiders, Chargers, and Panthers.
The Broncos defense also got better as the year went on and finished 12th in turnover rate, which is something we like in any defense we target for fantasy. On the downside, they were also 22nd in sacks, 27th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 30th in DVOA and lost safety Justin Simmons and LB Josey Jewell, who were two of their defensive leaders in 2023. The Broncos responded by signing safety Brandon Jones, LB Cody Barton, and CB Levi Wallace, then trading for DE John Franklin-Myers, and using a third-round pick on EDGE Jonah Elliss, all of whom figure to start or play big snap shares right away. I’m not sure if they’re a great unit, but I think they could be good enough to take advantage of that early schedule.
Los Angeles Chargers (Yahoo ADP: 28th DST)
The Chargers defense has star power with Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James, and Asante Samuel Jr. but they were 26th in DVOA last year and finished 18th in opponents’ scoring rate and 22nd in turnover rate. They also lost Eric Kendricks, Austin Johnson, and Kenneth Murray. If you want a case for optimism, they finished ninth in sacks and will now have Jesse Minter as their defensive coordinator. They drafted LB Junior Colson in the third round and signed LB Denzel Perryman, CB Kristian Fulton, and DT Poona Ford in free agency and should get improved play from second-year LB Daiyan Henley. One of these years this defense is going to live up to its potential, and perhaps a new coach in Jim Harbaugh who has a history of leading strong defensive teams could be the key to unlocking that.
The Chargers start the year with a trio of games against the Raiders, Panthers, and Steelers. Given the talent the Chargers have on that defense, they should absolutely be able to capitalize on those matchups.
Seattle Seahawks (Yahoo ADP: 29th)
Lastly, if you’re just playing for matchups to start the year, the Seahawks get the Broncos and Patriots, who could both feature rookie quarterbacks. Even if New England does start Jacoby Brissett, both of these teams seem like offenses we’re going to want to target with opposing defenses, especially early in the season as their young quarterbacks adjust to the speed and skill of NFL football.
The Seahawks were 28th in DVOA last year, finishing 11th in sacks, 21st in turnover rate, and 28th in opponents’ scoring rate, but I think they have a decent amount of talent with cornerbacks Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon, DT Leonard Williams, first-round pick DT Byron Murphy, plus safety Julian Love, LB Jerome Baker and NT Jarran Reed. I’m not sure how consistent this unit will be throughout the entire season, but I think we can trust them in those first two matchups.