Caitlin Clark for ROY? Yes. Better question: Caitlin Clark for First Team All-WNBA?

Caitlin Clark entered the WNBA facing unreasonable hype and expectations.

She’s surpassed all of it.

Clark is averaging 18.7 points and a league-leading 8.4 assists a game, shooting 34.1% from 3, and those numbers have only been more impressive since the return from the Olympic break as she found her comfort zone (24 points, 8.5 assists a game in August). Behind Clark, the Fever have become one of the hottest teams in the league, winning 8-of-10, and she and Kelsey Mitchell are already pushing the Aces championship duo of Kelsey Plum and Chelsea Grey (and Jackie Young, if you want) for the best backcourt in the WNBA.

So that makes Clark the runaway WNBA Rookie of the Year, right?

No.

Not runaway because Angel Reese is also doing things we have never seen a WNBA rookie do, racking up double-doubles (24 and counting, including a record 15 in a row) and leading the WNBA in rebounding. Reese also has some impressive backers.

Both should take a bow — but Clark is the clear Rookie of the Year.

This is no hate toward Reese — who leads the WNBA in rebounding as a rookie at 13.1 a game and is scoring 13.3 points a game — she has unquestionably exceeded expectations and been a spectacular rookie for Chicago. Reese is one of the faces of the WNBA, an All-Star as a rookie, and already a foundational cornerstone of the Sky’s future — and done all that while facing unfair (and at times racist and misogynistic) backlash from a narrow-minded subset of Clark fans. Reese would have won ROY just about any other year.

However, it’s the “Rookie Of the Year” award, not the “exceeded expectations” award — and there can be only one. The award is not shared. Sorry, Lisa Leslie. Reese is shooting 38.5% this season and has just not impacted winning in the same way.

Clark is leading her Fever back to the playoffs and is at the heart of Indiana’s turnaround after going 2-9 — they are 15-7 since (Reese’s Sky could make the playoffs as the No. 8 seed, but the team is 11-21). Clark’s playmaking, as evidenced by her scoring and assist numbers, sparked that turnaround. The knocks on her (the Fever have been outscored with her on the court this season, because of those first 11 games) will flip by season’s end when media voters cast their ballots. Right now, the Fever are still +5.3 points per 100 possessions better with her on the court.

Clark for All-WNBA First Team?

The better question with Clark is not whether she is the Rookie of the Year, but whether she has earned All-WNBA First-Team honors?

She should be in the mix. I think the brilliant Nekias Duncan summed it up well:

Of that group, in my mind, A’Ja Wilson (about to win a third MVP), Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart are First-Team locks. That leaves five players competing for two spots.

What hurts Clark’s chances is other players on that list are more impactful two-way players, although Clark will finish with the Fever being around +8 better with her on the court compared to when she sits (using Duncan’s numbers). The challenge facing voters is there isn’t a bad choice among that group. The three that don’t make the First Team should be locks for the Second Team.

Which is likely where Clark lands.

A season where she takes home the ROY trophy, is an All-Star, makes second-team All-WNBA, and leads the Fever back to the playoffs lives up to the hype — and that’s not even getting into the increased ratings and everything that has come with Clark as she has turned pro.

Clark has been one of the greatest rookies the WNBA has ever seen, whatever hardware she takes home after the season. She has exceeded the hype, and with her the future of the WNBA is as bright as ever.