We’re now into the final month of the fantasy baseball season and that means we need to be shifting the way we manage our starting pitchers. In truth, we really should have been doing that for a few weeks now, but with most starters only set to make four or five more starts in the 2024 season, we need to be managing on more of a week-to-week mindset rather than a Rest of Season mindset.
To help you do that, I’m going to rank and break down my favorite streaming matchups each week from here until the end of the year. Below you’ll find multiple tables that rank streaming starting pitchers based on those I have a strong preference for, those I’m fairly confident in, those I have some hesitation about, and those I’d only stream if I’m desperate. Within the tiers, you can make some changes based on your own needs. If you need strikeouts more than ratios, you can bump up the two-start pitchers over the pitchers with one good matchup, etc.
Some of the rankings will also be influenced by future matchups. For example, if I have two starters really close for this upcoming week, but one of them gets an elite matchup the following week and the other is in a matchup I want to avoid, then I’d prefer to add the pitcher I’ll use for two straight weeks because that makes my team better in the long run. This is the time of year when we need to be ruthless. If you’re not going to start a pitcher for two weeks, move on. If a pitcher has been great for you but now has bad matchups (hello Bowden Francis), move on.
Your decisions will change based on your league type and settings, but I’ll do my best here to give you the information that will help in your formats. As is usual with my articles, a streaming starter pitcher is rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo formats, so just keep that in mind as we’re going through.
Offenses to Attack
Before we get into our rankings, just a quick note about the offenses we want to attack. I used Fangraphs team stats over the last month, searching for metrics like wRC+, strikeout rate, OPS, etc., and narrowed down the list of offenses to the ones that have struggled in those areas.
To stream starting pitching, we want to target pitchers going against the White Sox, Angels, Marlins, Pirates, Mariners, Rays, and Rockies on the road only. Think of these as HIGHWAY OFFENSES - not stopping at all.
I also am more than comfortable using pitchers against the Tigers, Giants, Cardinals, Nationals, and Reds when they’re on the road only. Think of these as GREEN LIGHT OFFENSES - you can’t open it up like you can on a highway, but you’re good to go.
Lastly, some offenses that have been solid over the last month but won’t scare me off of a good streamer are the Cubs, Athletics, Blue Jays, and Mets. Think of these are YELLOW LIGHT OFFENSES - some hesitation but still good to go.
Now for the rankings...
I know people are not convinced in Brayan Bello and I understand that, but the 25-year-old has been starting to turn a corner. Before his tough start against a surging Diamondbacks offense, he was tremendous in starts against the Rangers and Orioles and it seemed like he had re-found the command of his changeup. That would be huge since his slider is coming on, and he’s pitched to a 4.12 ERA (4.41 SIERA), 1.35 WHIP, and 11.2% K-BB% since July 15th. With two strong matchups on tap and a chance for two wins, I like Bello as a streamer next week. (This was written before his tremendous performance on Wednesday night, so the stats above don’t take that into account, and he’s almost assuredly been added in more leagues now, but if he’s available in yours, I’d get him.)
Cody Bradford and Andrew Heaney both get the benefit of a strong matchup against the Angels. With reports that Max Scherzer’s season might be over, it feels like a good bet that both Bradford and Heaney will remain in the rotation, so there is less risk to these streams than there was a week or so ago. Between the two, Bradford has looked much better of late, posting a 3.25 ERA (3.90 SIERA), 1.01 WHIP, and 18% K-BB% since his return to the rotation. I’d strongly prefer him over Heaney but I would have no problem starting either.
Injuries to Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez have kept Albert Suarez in the rotation, and the 34-year-old has ridden his four-seam fastball to much success, including in two starts against the Astros and Red Sox. I have some mild concerns about his start this weekend against the Rockies in Coors, but I’m not letting that dissuade me from starting him against the White Sox. He tore up two much better offenses, and I have faith he can do it again, even if I will drop him for his following start in Fenway Park.
Yes, I know Simeon Woods Richardson wasn’t great on Tuesday against the Braves, but he really had one poor inning where his command faltered, and then Jorge Alcala came in to relieve him and let in two runs. The 23-year-old has taken his game to another level this season with more velocity and command of his four-seam fastball. Since July 15th, Woods Richardson has posted a 4.63 ERA (4.61 SIERA) and 11.6% K-BB% but gets two strong matchups and a chance to snag two wins, which is why I feel good about using him this week.
I’m not sure what Zebby Matthews needs to do to be rostered in more leagues. When he was promoted we mentioned that he had a deep arsenal of five pitches and he can lean on three of them as plus offerings with elite command. So far, that has translated to a 3.00 ERA (3.90 SIERA), 1.00 WHIP, and 17.7% K-BB%. I know we are conditioned to think of the Rays as a strong offense, but they’re simply not anymore, so I’m not worried about this start for Zebby at all.
Same goes for Martin Perez, who has long been somebody who consistently has extended stretches of good performances. Since July 15th, he has a 3.47 ERA (4.57 SIERA), 1.29 WHIP, and 10.2% K-BB%. While the underlying metrics suggest he’s been getting a bit fortunate, and I certainly don’t think he’s an elite option against most opponents, he gets the benefit of facing a soft Tigers lineup, so I have no problem going to him here.
I do have some concerns about Ryne Nelson because that Houston matchup is a bit concerning. I know San Francisco profiles as an average offense, and this Houston lineup potentially still won’t have Kyle Tucker, but each offense can wake up and have a good performance. The saving grace has been just how good Nelson has been with the 15th-best SIERA in baseball since July 15th, posting a 2.91 ERA (3.19 SIERA), 0.99 WHIP, and 23.1% K-BB%. Since we know this has come with a tangible change in pitch mix by leaning on his four-seam fastball more, we can buy into this hot stretch and take the risk if you’d like the strikeouts and chance at wins.
Really the only knock against David Festa is that the Twins have yet to allow him to throw more than five innings in any start. That has severely impacted his ability to get credited with wins, but he has a good chance to get a least one here against the Rays and Royals. What’s more, Festa has the 19th-best SIERA amongst all starting pitchers since July 15th. Over that span, Festa has a 3.27 ERA (3.25 SIERA), 1.14 WHIP, and 23.1% K-BB%. I know his last start against the Cardinals wasn’t great, but this is a top prospect who has been strong for over a month now and I think he’s worthy of our trust. (Hey, look, right after I wrote this, Festa threw six innings and looked good against the Braves. It almost makes me want to put him in the tier above given his matchups).
You look at Bobby Miller and you see his matchup and you think “How are you not super confident in him?” and I respond “Have you seen him pitch this season?” Even in his last start against Tampa Bay where he struck out nine and didn’t walk a batter, Miller still didn’t have the slider that was so crucial to his success last year. Yes, he has five pitches, but he needs that slider to take pressure off of his four-seam fastball. Will it matter against the Angels? Not likely, but there’s a chance he leaves some pitches over the middle of the plate and gives up a few bombs as we’ve seen him do a few times this season.
DJ Herz was great against the Braves last week, inducing 18 whiffs on 45 swings for a 40 percent whiff rate and 34 percent CSW. The three walks in five innings are not ideal, and the 60% zone rate on his four-seam fastball could afford to get better, but he got plenty of chases outside of the zone on his changeup and slider. Since July 15th, Herz has a 2.62 ERA (3.71 SIERA), 1.17 WHIP, and 18.8% K-BB% which is hard to find fault in. There is a chance his command could fail him in any start and that has led to home run issues, which could be a concern against some of the hitters in this Cubs lineup, but I’m happy to take the gamble.
Both JP Sears and Osvaldo Bido have been really solid for the Athletics over the last few weeks, and Sears in particular has gotten strong results after a pitch mix change that saw him move away from his sweeper and lean more into his changeup and four-seam fastball. Both guys have missed a surprising amount of bats since July 15th with K-BB% over 17%, but SIERA is a little bit less convinced about their performance, and I tend to agree as I don’t see pitch mixes that can overwhelm hitters. However, they get two strong matchups this week, so there’s a chance that each pitcher is able to produce solid ratios and good strikeout totals while also having the chance for wins. There aren’t many other pitchers on this list you can say that about.
You’d think Jeffrey Springs should be in the tier above, and the truth is that he was when I first drafted this. Springs has been solid since returning to the rotation, posting a 3.67 ERA (3.53 SIERA), 1.44 WHIP, and 20.3% K-BB% overall, which includes a poor last start against the A’s last week. Springs handled the Diamondbacks and Orioles in back-to-back starts prior to that Oakland game and was great against the Mariners yesterday so there’s no way you can keep him out of your lineup. However, he also is facing two tough offenses and has not pitched more than five innings in any of his outings, including Tuesday when he was cruising. I do have some confidence that Springs isn’t going to be hit hard in these games, but I don’t think he’s likely to get any wins and that’s an issue.
I’m generally not a huge Frankie Montas fan, but he has been really good since coming to the Brewers, posting a 3.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 28:10 K:BB ratio in 27 innings. His fastball velocity is up to 97 mph, and he’s using his cutter well low in the zone. However, his splitter is not as elite as we’ve seen it before, and the command is wonky at times. Still, he gets a great matchup here with Colorado outside of Coors Field and then he gets a solid matchup against the Giants next, so he could be a hold for two starts.
We have to talk about Patrick Corbin. On one hand, those two matchups are about as juicy as they come. On the other hand, well, he’s Patrick Corbin. Since July 15th, Patrick Corbin is rocking a 6.19 ERA and 1.54 WHIP, and a mediocre 14.9% K-BB%. None of that is what you really want to see, even though the K-BB% is basically what Jose Berrios and Tyler Anderson have been giving you and better than what you’re getting from Taj Bradley and Michael Wacha. So, OK, the strikeouts have been solid and Corbin also has a 3.87 SIERA and 3.66 xFIP over that same span. So the underlying metrics suggest that Corbin should be getting better results than he has been and he also gets Miami again the week after this so, yeah, I can see using him.
Cade Povich has made two starts since being recalled and has demonstrated a new pitch mix in that time, scrapping his cutter and leaning more into his changeup and curve. I’m still not entirely sure how I feel about it since the cutter wasn’t a bad pitch for him and the curveball has not really been a good offering in terms of swing and miss or hard contact allowed. However, it’s the White Sox here, so we don’t need to overthink it too much.
Remember when MacKenzie Gore was breaking out? Yeah, I barely do too. Since July 15th, Gore has a 6.00 ERA (5.28 SIERA), 1.97 WHIP, and 4.4% K-BB%. I mean, those are atrocious numbers and there’s no way to sugarcoat it. Then again, last week Gore showed an improved fastball and handled a strong Braves offense. But I’m just not convinced he’s the guy we saw earlier in the season so he remains down in this tier despite the great matchup.
The rest are all guys who have been serviceable streamers for us at times during the season but are not currently delivering their best work. We can just hope that the good matchups elevate their performance to those prior levels.
There’s no need to really go into detail here. All of these offenses are either Highway Offenses or Green Light offenses, so you’d think we want to stream against them but I just don’t trust these pitchers at all. Jordan Wicks is clearly the best of the bunch, but this will be his first start off the IL, so that makes me nervous. In deeper formats, you can go for it, but I’d rather avoid these starters.