Never has an opening round in the Cup playoffs featured as much uncertainty as this season.
“The first round definitely needs to be respected because it’s not a cakewalk by any means,” former Cup champion Chase Elliott said.
The playoffs begin Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway (3 p.m. ET on USA Network).
“I’ll be honest, the first round is the scariest it’s been in a long time with Atlanta, a superspeedway starting us off,” Christopher Bell said.
“We all know how that can go. And then we go to Watkins Glen, which should be a normal racetrack, but with the expected tire degradation with the tire change that we’ve had, it could be a Bristol-style race where people are wearing tires out really early and struggling to make laps and having to pit all of the time. So, that could be another wildcard race.
“And, then Bristol, I think everybody is expecting it to be more of the same as what we had in the spring. So, the first round could be very different than what we’ve seen in the past.”
In a season that saw four drivers — a quarter of the playoff field — outside the top 16 in points reach the playoffs with a win, chaos almost seems normal.
When the Cup Series last raced at Atlanta in February, all but five drivers were involved in an accident that day. If anything close to that happens again, it could alter the playoff standings.
New to the playoffs is Watkins Glen. But also new is a tire that is expected to wear — some have estimated lap times will slow by three to four seconds during a run. If that happens, pit strategy will become more critical because tires will be more important.
“I don’t feel like everyone – at least myself, I’m not 100 percent sure what the level of falloff is that we’re going to experience,” said Austin Cindric, who tested tires at Watkins Glen with fellow playoff drivers Daniel Suarez and Tyler Reddick in late June. “It’s not a high fall-off racetrack, so is this fall off that’s just a tire disintegrating from being used, or is this driver influenced? Is it wear influenced? Is it heat influenced?
“All of those things are things that in an extra practice session I’m gonna be able to use and I’m trying to understand more, but you don’t ever really figure it out until the race.”
The final race of the opening round ends at Bristol, a track that saw significant tire wear in the spring race. Goodyear is bringing back the same tire.
Six drivers tested tires at Bristol in July. Southern 500 winner Chase Briscoe took part in the test.
“NASCAR invited us thinking we weren’t gonna be in the playoffs and we obviously are in now, so we were the only (playoff) car,” Briscoe said.
Asked what he learned about the tires, Briscoe said: “I honestly have no idea. I seem to think it won’t be like that (in the spring race), but my crew chief and engineers do, so I don’t know. I definitely think that I could see it going either way.
“Everybody says (the tire wear in the spring race was) temperature related. Who knows? I think if guys start running up top, the top will probably come in and rubber up, but I don’t know why it wouldn’t go back to the way it was before, but I also don’t know why it did what it did the first time.
“I don’t know what to expect. This first round is kind of full of question marks and Bristol is certainly one of them.”
All these changes in the opening round will put more pressure on drivers and teams.
“You have to be kind of ready for the unknown more than ever this year going into the playoffs,” two-time Cup champion Joey Logano said. “It’s just a lot of things that can happen that we can’t call yet.
“I feel like in the past, the playoffs were a little bit more predictable. But this first round is very unpredictable. I don’t know how it’s gonna work out.
“So you just gotta be quick and ready to adapt. Because we don’t really know exactly how the first three (races) are really going to play out. Especially outside of Atlanta, those other two, you really have no idea how they’re going to play out. You just got to be ready.”
2. Chase Elliott ready for a “fun” time
Chase Elliott, who seeks his second Cup championship, looks forward to the 10-week playoffs after not contending for the driver’s title last year (his car was in the owner’s playoff).
“I have certainly had a lot of fun in the last 10 weeks (of the season) just because there is something on the line,” said Elliott, who has won seven playoff races in 70 starts. “I do enjoy that aspect of being a competitor and showing up each week because it could be a make-or-break weekend for you. I think that is fun, you know?”
Elliott further explained.
“Well, just because you either do or you don’t,” he said. “That is fun to me. You go to a race and your back is against the wall and you have to perform. You either show up and get it done or if you didn’t, you get your report card that day and you didn’t do a good enough job. And I like that.
“I like that aspect of that there are intense moments over the course of that stuff. Am I a fan of all the aspects of it, maybe not necessarily, but I do enjoy the fun meter of being a competitor in the last 10 weeks that it brings me.”
3. Deal getting closer?
Denny Hamlin, co-owner of 23XI Racing, was asked this week if he felt the charter agreement between teams and NASCAR could get done in the near future.
“Yeah, absolutely, it could,” he said. “But, again, someone will have to wake up and have a completely different mindset and I just don’t know if that is going to be possible.”
Hamlin was referring to NASCAR.
“I’m not really sure where leverage lies,” Hamlin said of the negotiations between teams and NASCAR. “I would argue both sides feel like they have some, but I think it’s more just a frustration of a lack of acknowledgement that the teams have built this sport.
“(Rick) Hendrick and (Joe) Gibbs putting superstars on the race track – that is what has built the sport. Fans do not come to see cars going around in circles. If they would, then we would sell out ARCA races, but they don’t. They come to sell out on Sunday to watch Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch.
“So, who provides them the cars? And that’s the teams. Who spends the money? That’s the teams. Whose sponsors go buy a suite? That’s the teams. Whose sponsors activate in their midways? That’s the teams. That’s the tough part that, they just don’t value us.”
Asked if he thought these negotiations would have continued into the playoffs, Hamlin said: “Oh, yeah, I had a feeling this was going to go all the way to the 11th hour for sure. And there’s just been a lot of stall tactics that have been in play and here we are.”
Hamlin explained his frustration.
“I’m just trying to make (the sport) better than what it was and still try to grow it and it’s unfortunate,” he said. “I wish I had a bigger role in it. Certainly, there’s been some changes that have happened around some conversations that you have, and I think NASCAR for a while has been very receptive to listening to advice and some things.
“But certainly, when it comes to dollars and cents, that’s where we’re in two different ballparks. As a driver, I’ve put in 20 years doing this and I feel like I’ve tried to do my best to grow social following, giving more content. Things like that. Trying to update the times, right?
“I tried to start a race team to build my legacy well beyond being a race car driver itself. Being part of the sport, investing in Jim France, investing in NASCAR. You know, I’m doing my part, but certainly I think probably from their standpoint they just see me as a thorn in their side and more than likely would be better off without me.”
4. The Double in 2025
Kyle Larson said this week that work is “progressing” for an attempt to run the Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600 on the same day next year.
Larson planned to run both races this year but rain delayed the start of the Indianapolis 500. He stayed in Indianapolis and completed that race before heading to Charlotte. Rain ended the Coca-Cola 600 as Larson stood in his team’s pit stall ready to climb into his No. 5 Cup car.
“I would love to (do both) because I didn’t get to do the double this year,” Larson said. “So that’s really why I wanted to do it. I obviously wanted to compete in the Indianapolis 500, but more than anything, I wanted to do the double and have a chance at winning one of the two, or both, and I felt like I just didn’t get that opportunity.”
Larson’s focus now is on the playoffs. He enters as the No. 1 seed after collecting 40 playoff points.
“I don’t know what our odds would be, but I feel strongly that we can have a great playoffs,” said Larson, who won the 2021 Cup title.
“I would hope that we’d make the Championship Four. It just gets tougher and tougher each round. But there’s good tracks for us in the first round, too. There’s obviously tracks in each round that are a little bit more worrisome than others, but I think we’re strong at every track. As long as we can execute at a high level, I think we’ll be OK.”
5. Numbers to know
3 — Wins by William Byron at drafting tracks in the Next Gen car, the most in the series.
4 — Different winners this season at drafting tracks. They are: William Byron (Daytona 500), Daniel Suarez (Atlanta), Tyler Reddick (Talladega) and Harrison Burton (Daytona II).
7 — Drivers who are in the Cup playoffs who finished 25th or worse at Atlanta in February’s race. They were: Alex Bowman (27th), Joey Logano (28th), Tyler Reddick (30th), Chase Briscoe (31st), Kyle Larson (32nd), Brad Keselowski (33rd) and Christopher Bell (34th)
16 — Cars collected in a Lap 2 accident at Atlanta in February.
32 — Cars involved in an at least one accident at Atlanta in February.