Let’s start, as we often do, with a simple question.
Which quarterback do you want?
It’s draft season, of course, and quarterback is a key position. So let’s do some research.
I’m going to tell you about two different ones.
There’s no polite way to put it. “Quarterback A” is on a downward trend. For three straight seasons now, he’s had fewer completions than the year before, and you have to think the coaching staff has noticed, and are pulling the reins back on him. He’s also had decreasing pass attempts for three straight years. His interception rate was the highest it’s been since he became a starter, he had more sacks on a per game basis than ever before and he’s become a dink and dunker. He’s not even a middle of the pack QB as this guy was below league average last year in yards per pass attempt, yards gained per pass attempt and yards gained per pass completion. In fantasy last year, on a points per game basis, he was well outside the top 12 at the position — in fact, some of the players who scored better than him last season are backups this year. And maybe our guy should be as well. Coming off a career low in passer rating, yards per game, TD rate and TD/INT ratio, you have to wonder if the end is near. Given the lack of upside with his legs — he had zero rushing touchdowns last year — he needs to produce fantasy points only with his arm and it’s hard to see that suddenly happening this season. It’s been almost a decade since his best season and when your touchdown percentage is worse than Derek Carr’s and your percentage of bad throws per pass attempt (per Pro Football Reference) is higher than the likes of Russell Wilson and Jake Browning, it’s probably time to see if you can get a coaching gig or a job on air. Either way, you’re unlikely to be desperate enough to draft “Quarterback A” this season.
Meanwhile, after carrying so many managers to fantasy titles last year, “Quarterback B” was rewarded with a shiny new contract this offseason and is ready to rock. A top six QB in fantasy last year, “Quarterback B” is on a great upward trend. For three straight years now, he’s increased his attempts, completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns every single season, while decreasing his sack percentage year after year. And you have to love his aggressiveness down field. “Quarterback B” was top six in the NFL last year in average depth of target and touchdowns per pass attempt, as well as being top 10 in the NFL last year among starters in fantasy points per drop back, which is a great stat when you realize our guy led the NFL in drop backs per game last year. He had only one game last year where he threw for less than 300 yards. He had only two games last year where he threw for less than three touchdowns. But it’s not just upside as he’s also incredibly consistent, having never scored less than 16 fantasy points in a game last year. He’s an aggressive passer on a team with one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and a highly-touted rookie. Sky’s the limit for “Quarterback B” this year.
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Ok, so which quarterback do you want this season?
Realize that every single thing I just wrote about each player above is 100% true, heavily researched, verified, and completely accurate.
You’re in the draft room, clock is ticking down and you gotta make a pick in the next 10 seconds.
You’ve listened to podcasts, watched videos and read a ton, including around 500 stat-filled words from me on two different quarterbacks. You’ve been prepped for this day all summer. Choice should be easy, right? You know which QB you want, right? I’ve made it fairly obvious. Grab the clearly better QB and let’s start figuring out which one of our league mates we are gonna screw over by grabbing their starting RB’s backup, right?
Well, hang on for one more second. Before you click “draft” there’s one other fact you should know.
“Quarterback B” is Joe Flacco.
Oh, and “Quarterback A”?
That’s Patrick Mahomes.
Yeah.
You see, I can make stats say anything I want. Literally anything I want. What’s the phrase? There are three kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics. I can talk up or down any player I want. I just have to choose the right stats for the job. Or use the free research tools on FantasyLife.com or ask my producer Damian Dabrowski to find me the right stat, which I did at various points in this column.
Everything in this column is an accurate statistical statement that has been heavily researched and double checked. They are heavily-vetted, purposefully-thought-out, 100% true, can’t-be-argued-with, black and white facts.
That only tells PART of the story.
The part of the story I want you to see. But ONLY that part. The part that supports whatever opinion I have of a player. Whatever opinion I want to try and convince you of.
For my example this year, I wanted to try and talk down Patrick Mahomes (“Quarterback A”), my personal QB3 this season. So yes, I leaned into the fact that he did, in fact, have a down year (for him) last season. While it’s true his pass attempts have gone down for three straight seasons, I didn’t mention it’s gone from 658 to 648 to 597 (and he only played 16 games last year, compared with 17 the previous two seasons). I brought up the shorter passing, but failed to mention that was likely because all of his deep threats were, well, terrible. KC led the NFL in drops and had the second-worst catch rate on throws 20+ yards downfield. That sound you just heard was MVS dropping another ball.
However, I didn’t mention that this year the Chiefs addressed that by signing Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy, while expecting big things in year two from rookie standout Rashee Rice. I used Mahomes’ per game fantasy points average (via Fantasy Life), which put him behind guys that didn’t play very much last year like Joe Flacco, Anthony Richardson and Justin Fields so that I didn’t have to mention on a total points basis Mahomes was QB8 last year. Yes, he didn’t have a rushing TD last year for the first time in his career, but I also omitted the fact that his 389 rushing yards were a career high. The truth is, per Pro Football Reference, Mahomes actually had the fifth-lowest bad throw percentage, but weirdly, Russell Wilson and Jake Browning were better, so I mentioned them without telling you where he was on the overall list or using the other two guys that were better than Patrick — Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott. Finally, it is true Mahomes’ best year was six years ago, but when you throw 50 TDs in 2018 you can be forgiven if you don’t quite get back up to that level.
Meanwhile, Joe Flacco had a crazy, magical five-game run last year in fantasy. And did, in fact, lead a lot of fantasy managers to a title. But it was only five games, so because of the small sample size it was easy to manipulate all of his averages. Considering how little he played the previous two years with the Jets and their bad offensive line it wasn’t hard to see an upward trend in whatever stat I wanted. The Browns did chuck it deep and often last year in that five-game sample, so that helped and, yeah, on a per game basis, Flacco was actually QB4 last year. I actually made that stat vaguer to try and throw you off. But I didn’t mention all the interceptions, his age (39), the fact he was on his couch for much of the season, the fact Cleveland didn’t even want to re-sign him, his meltdown in the playoff game or that his shiny new contract was to be a backup with Indy. An Indy team that does have a very good WR in Michael Pittman and a touted rookie in Adonai Mitchell, but none of that matters to Flacco, who will be holding a clipboard. When you are at the bottom, sky is the limit because there is nowhere to go but up.
And I can do what I did with Mahomes and Flacco for any player in the NFL. Because, you see, there is actually very little in this world I am good at. But one thing I am a world class master at? Writing and manipulating stats to tell whatever story I want.
And I want to let you in on one more secret: I am not the only one.
Everyone does it. EVERYONE. Some are better at it than others, but everyone does it. They do it in fantasy football analysis, they do it in office presentations, they do it in pop culture and while arguing at the bar. And just wait till this year’s election to see it 24/7 from both sides.
Everyone tells you the stats or side of the story that supports what THEY think. But they don’t tell you the whole story.
And this is probably the best advice I can give you about fantasy football research all season. It’s why this is always the first column I write every year, making the same points, reminding you of the same message and making the same confession.
Because it’s crucial. There’s not a more crucial piece of information.
Because as you start your research you have to understand that NOTHING you read/watch/listen to from me this year (or anyone else) is black and white. It’s ALL shades of gray.
Opinions, really. Opinions presented as facts. As you go through this preseason (and frankly, life) you’ll have a zillion folks tell you why this player is awesome and this other one is a bum and why you can’t leave your draft without this guy, but you have to let others draft this other guy and it’s all just opinions on players. They’ll throw facts, stats and snippets of game film to support their side. They’ll share a cherry-picked coach’s quote or the three best plays from training camp that supports their opinion. And ONLY that opinion.
The challenge these days is NOT finding information, it’s trying to wade through it all to decide what to believe and what to ignore. We live in an era of information overload. Take dumb ol’ me for example. Here at NBC Sports/Rotoworld/Peacock I do a daily, hour long show (“Fantasy Football Happy Hour”) that is available on YouTube, wherever you get your podcasts and airs on Peacock (starting August 14) Monday through Friday throughout the season. During the season, I also have a Sunday morning show (“Fantasy Football Pregame”) from 11 a.m. ET to 1 p.m. ET on Peacock and YouTube. I’m on Football Night in America before every single Sunday Night Football game on NBC Sports and Peacock. I’m constantly posting on my social media handles, where I am @MatthewBerryTMR on Twitter/X, Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok. I also own FantasyLife.com, which sends out a free fantasy football newsletter every day, and has partnered with Rotoworld this year to offer FantasyLife+ featuring the Rotoworld Draft Guide. FantasyLife+ features our next generation Draft Champion tool that will sync with your league settings, customize rankings, cheat sheets, tiers and projections for your league format, assign personal and opponent draft traits like Zero RB, Punt TE, etc. It gives live grades after every pick, has player pick predictions and probabilities a player will last till your next pick, draft assistant and will rate your draft. It also has a League Sync tool, Start/Sit tool, Trade Rater, Keeper tool for those in keeper/dynasty leagues, Waiver tool, Proprietary Projections, Utilization Splits, and a ton of other tools that will help you with DFS, Pick ‘ems, Best Ball and sports betting (game models, trends tools, projections, etc). Seriously, check it out and see why we’ve won “Best Product” each of the last two years at the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association awards.
The Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide is now available exclusively through a new partnership with Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life. Buy a FantasyLife+ subscription and get the Rotoworld Draft Guides, along with award-winning Fantasy, Betting & DFS tools. Use ROTO10 at checkout to save 10%!
I also own RotoPass.com a bundle site that includes FantasyLife+, a subscription to Peacock and access to many other great premium sites for one low price. It’s only the best value on the internet.
Blatant plugs aside… that’s just me, right? There are tons of other men and women just like me doing really strong work both at NBCSports.com, FantasyLife.com and elsewhere. Many other media companies, fantasy sports sites and shows where we are all talking and writing and arguing and tweeting and performing and blah blah blah. All of us trying to manipulate you into thinking how we do, starting with this column.
It’s frankly… a LOT.
So your job? Watch the games, do the research, figure out which analysts you trust and whose thinking aligns with yours. Question everyone and everything you hear, many times over, take it all in, and then make your own call.
Because honestly, that’s all any of us are really doing. Taking a small piece of a big picture and making a call.
Everything that follows is a 100% completely accurate fact. Some of them are about players, some of them are about tendencies and not a damn bit of it tells the whole story.
These are 100 facts you need to know before you draft in 2024. What you do with them is up to you.
1. Last year, Kyler Murray came back in Week 10 to a 1-8 Arizona Cardinals team.
2. From Week 10 to 18 last year, the Cardinals best wide receiver, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown played only three full games.
3. From Week 10 to 18 last year, Kyler Murray scored at least 17 points in six of eight games and finished as a top 10 QB on a points per game basis for the fourth-straight season.
4. In fact, since Kyler Murray entered the NFL, on a points per game basis, he is the fifth-best QB in fantasy football.
5. Since Kyler Murray entered the NFL, he’s averaged 241 passing yards per game.
6. Since Kyler Murray entered the NFL, he’s averaged 38 rushing yards per game.
7. Over a 17-game season, those averages would total 4,097 passing yards and 646 rushing yards.
8. Per FantasyLife.com’s Dwain McFarland, since 2011, QBs who have at least 3,800 passing yards and 550 rushing yards average 23.5 points per game and finish as a top two QB.
8A. Kyler Murray, who added Marvin Harrison Jr. this offseason, is currently going as QB8 on Yahoo/Sleeper and as QB10 on ESPN.
9. Over the last two years, when playing indoors, Lions QB Jared Goff averages 18.3 points per game.
10. For comparison, last year’s QB5, Jordan Love, averaged 18.8 points per game.
11. This year, the Lions will play only three outdoor games.
11A. Jared Goff is currently going as QB16 on ESPN.
12. Last year, there were five different QBs that rushed for at least 400 yards.
13. Those five averaged 19.9 fantasy points per game, which last year would have been QB5.
14. In his rookie year, Kyler Murray rushed 93 times for 544 yards, the third-most rush attempts by a QB in the NFL that season.
15. He was coached by Kliff Kingsbury.
16. In his two seasons as the starter at LSU, new Commanders QB Jayden Daniels rushed for 2,019 yards and 21 touchdowns.
17. This year, Daniels will be coached by Kliff Kingsbury.
17A Daniels is currently going as QB14 on Yahoo and QB 15 on Sleeper.
18. Over the last two seasons, Justin Herbert ranks 22nd in TD rate.
19. Last year, Justin Herbert had career lows in pass attempts, passing yards and completion percentage.
20. This offseason, the Chargers lost 66% of their receptions and 63% of their receiving yards from 2023 when Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett left the team.
21. This offseason the Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh as head coach and Greg Roman as offensive coordinator.
22. In eight of Roman’s 10 seasons as an offensive coordinator, his offenses have ranked 27th or lower in passing offense.
23. During Jim Harbaugh’s tenure as a head coach in San Francisco, the 49ers ranked second in rush rate.
24. And 31st in pass attempts.
25. Last season, Trevor Lawrence had the sixth-most deep pass attempts.
26. Last season, Trevor Lawrence ranked top 10 in average depth of target.
27. This offseason, the Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Brian Thomas Jr., who led the FBS with 17 receiving touchdowns in 2023, nine of which came on plays of 30+ yards.
27A The Jaguars also added free agent WR Gabe Davis.
28. Since he entered the NFL, Davis leads all players in average depth of target and is second in yards per reception.
28A Lawrence is being drafted as QB19 on Yahoo.
29. Last season, no quarterback had a higher average depth of target than … Will Levis.
30. Over 22% of his passes traveled 20+ air yards.
31. No other QB was above 15%.
31A This offseason, the Titans signed WR Calvin Ridley.
32. Last season, Ridley ranked top five in deep targets.
33. Last season, among WRs that saw at least 30 targets, both DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks ranked top 18 in average depth of target.
33A. The Titans also signed RB Tony Pollard, WR Tyler Boyd, C Lloyd Cushenberry and drafted OT J.C. Latham with the No. 7 overall pick.
33B. The Titans hired Brian Callahan to be their new head coach.
34. During his five seasons as the Bengals offensive coordinator, Cincinnati ranked fifth in pass rate.
34A. Will Levis is being drafted as QB24 on Yahoo.
35. Last season among RBs, only Christian McCaffrey had more games with at least 18 fantasy points than … Derrick Henry.
36. In his last 72 games, Derrick Henry has 68 rushing touchdowns.
37. The last season that Henry did NOT have at least 1,000 total yards AND 10 rushing touchdowns was 2017.
38. The last two seasons, the Titans have ranked bottom three in the NFL in yards per carry BEFORE contact.
39. This offseason, Derrick Henry joined the Baltimore Ravens.
40. Over the last two seasons, the Ravens led the NFL in yards per carry BEFORE contact.
41. Since Lamar Jackson became the starting QB in Baltimore in 2019, Ravens RBs are averaging an NFL high 4.8 yards per carry.
42. Last season, Ravens running backs Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell and Melvin Gordon combined for 20 rushing touchdowns and 1,696 rushing yards.
43. If those Ravens running backs were one player, that RB would have scored 289.6 fantasy points on rushing alone.
43A. Last season, 289.6 points would be the second-best RB in standard and .5 PPR scoring, and a half point out of second in full PPR.
43B. Derrick Henry is going as RB8 on ESPN and RB10 on Sleeper.
44. Last season, there were only four RBs that had a higher percentage of his team’s red zone rushes than … Isiah Pacheco.
45. Pacheco was also top 10 in the NFL in percentage of his team’s total rush attempts.
46. Per Next Gen Stats, Pacheco was top 10 in the NFL last year in rush yards over expected per attempt.
47. As FantasyLife.com’s Ian Hartitz notes, he has also caught 91.5% of his 82 career targets.
48. Last season, including the playoffs, there were seven games that Isiah Pacheco played without Jerrick McKinnon.
49. In those games, Pacheco averaged 21.4 touches, an 11.7% target share and … 19.9 points per game.
50. Last season, 19.9 points per game would have been RB3 in PPR.
50A. Jerick McKinnon is currently a free agent.
50B. Pacheco is currently being drafted as RB12 on Sleeper.
51. Last season, the Detroit Lions were sixth in the NFL in red zone rush rate.
52. Last season, only three players had more carries inside the 5-yard line than… David Montgomery.
53. In Week 7 last year, David Montgomery missed the game for the Lions.
54. Jahmyr Gibbs got 20 touches that week for 126 total yards, a touchdown and 27.6 points in PPR scoring.
55. From Week 7 on last season, Jahmyr Gibbs was the fourth-best RB in fantasy.
56. David Montgomery returned in Week 10.
57. From Week 10 on last season, Jahmyr Gibbs was the fifth best RB in fantasy.
58. From Week 10 on last season, David Montgomery was RB13 in fantasy.
55A. Jahmyr Gibbs is currently being drafted as RB6 on Yahoo.
55B. And David Montgomery is currently being drafted as RB21 on ESPN.
59. Last season, Alvin Kamara averaged 19.6 touches per game.
60. He led all RBs in target share and receptions per game.
61. His teammate, Kendre Miller, who missed nine games last season, left the first practice of camp with a hamstring injury, after which Saints Head Coach Dennis Allen was quoted as saying “It’s hard to make the team when you’re in the training room all the time.”
62. Last season among qualified RBs, no running back averaged fewer fantasy points per touch than Kamara’s other teammate … Jamaal Williams.
62A. Last season, Alvin Kamara finished as RB3 in points per game.
62B. This year, Alvin Kamara is going as RB18 on Yahoo.
63. From Weeks 1-6, Tony Pollard had an avoided tackle rate of 7.3%, second-lowest among RBs.
64. Last December, Tony Pollard told reporters that he didn’t start feeling fully recovered from his broken leg the previous year until after the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye.
65. From Weeks 8-18 last season, Tony Pollard had an avoided tackle rate of 25%, third-highest among RBs.
66. This offseason, Pollard’s new team, the Tennessee Titans, acquired C Lloyd Cushenberry, drafted OT J.C. Latham No. 7 overall, hired legendary offensive line coach Bill Callahan and signed Pollard to a $21.75 million contract.
66A. Pollard is currently being drafted as RB29 on Yahoo and ESPN.
67. During Kliff Kingsbury’s tenure as the head coach of the Cardinals, Arizona ranked top eight in the NFL in red zone rush rate.
68. Under Kliff Kingsbury, in 2020, Kenyan Drake tied for the NFL lead in goal-line carries.
68A. You heard me. KENYAN. DRAKE.
69. Under Kliff Kingsbury, in 2021, James Conner was second in the NFL in goal-line carries.
70. Last year, per FantasyLife.com’s red zone stats Brian Robinson was top 10 in the NFL in terms of highest percentage of his team’s rush attempts inside an opponent’s 5-yard line.
70A. Brian Robinson is currently being drafted outside the top 30 RBs on Yahoo.
71. Justin Jefferson’s career average of 98.3 receiving yards per game is the highest in NFL history.
72. Justin Jefferson has now averaged over 105 yards per game in back-to-back seasons.
73. Last season, Justin Jefferson played four full games without Kirk Cousins.
74. In those games, he saw a 31% target share and averaged 22.1 PPG.
75. With the departure of K.J. Osborn and others, there are over 130 targets vacated from last year’s Vikings team.
76. T.J. Hockenson, expected to miss the first half of the year as he recovers from an ACL tear, averaged 8.5 targets per game last year.
76A. Justin Jefferson is not currently being drafted inside the top six picks on either Yahoo or ESPN.
77. Last season, Amari Cooper had a career-high 1,250 receiving yards and finished as WR17 in PPG.
78. Last season, in Week 16 against Houston, with current Indianapolis Colt Joe Flacco as his QB, Amari Cooper had 11 catches, 265 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with 51.5 fantasy points.
79. That one game accounted for over 21% of Cooper’s yards and over 22% of his fantasy points in 2023.
80. Without that game, on a per game basis, Cooper averaged 12.5 fantasy points, which would have been WR32 last season.
80A. Amari Cooper is currently being drafted as WR23 on Yahoo.
81. Last season, Tank Dell had six games with at least 7 targets.
82. In those games, he averaged 23.4 PPG.
83. Last season, CeeDee Lamb was WR1 in fantasy (23.7 ppg) and Tyreek Hill was WR2 (23.5 ppg).
84. On an episode of The Edge with Micah Parsons this offseason, Texans QB C.J. Stroud was asked to build his perfect offense using current NFL players. As his starting wide receivers, Stroud chose Davante Adams, Ja’Marr Chase and … Tank Dell.
84A. Tank Dell is currently being drafted outside the top 25 WR on all major platforms.
85. Last season, there were 11 full regular season games where Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua played together.
86. In those 11 games, both players had a 27% target share.
87. In those 11 games, Nacua averaged 15.5 PPG. Kupp averaged 14.8.
87A. Currently, Puka Nacua is being drafted 2-3 rounds ahead of Cooper Kupp on all major platforms.
88. More Rams. Last season, Los Angeles used 11 personnel (3 WR’s) on an NFL-high 95% of their plays.
89. Week 13 last season was the first week DeMarcus Robinson saw more than two targets.
90. From Week 13 to Week 17 last season, DeMarcus Robinson saw a 20% target share, played on 86% of snaps, saw at least one end zone target in each game and averaged 15.4 PPG.
91. From Weeks 13 to 17 last season, DeMarcus Robinson was the 12th best WR in fantasy.
92. DeMarcus Robinson isn’t being drafted on any major platform this year other Underdog, where he is going as WR76.
93. Between Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett, there are 320 vacated targets from last season on the Los Angeles Chargers.
94. Heading into 2024, Josh Palmer is the only WR on the Chargers’ roster who has caught at least 40 passes from Justin Herbert … in his career.
95. In 16 career games with at least seven targets, Josh Palmer averages 14.4 PPG.
95A. Last year’s WR19, Chris Olave, averaged 14.5 PPG.
95B. Josh Palmer is not being drafted inside the top 60 WRs on either Yahoo or ESPN.
96. Last season, no tight end had more red zone targets than … Jake Ferguson.
97. Among tight ends, he was top five in the NFL in routes run, slot targets, and play-action targets.
98. The departures of Michael Gallup and Tony Pollard vacate 124 targets from last season.
99. In Ferguson’s 11 games last season with at least 6 targets, he averaged 12.2 PPG.
100. Last season’s TE6, George Kittle, averaged 12.7 PPG.
100A. Jake Ferguson is currently being drafted as TE10 or later on both ESPN and Sleeper.
