Twenty years.
Can you believe it’s been twenty years?
It was 2004 and I had been a columnist right here at Rotoworld since 1999. As a hobby.
A little something I did for fun. A part-time gig. A side hustle, if you will. I had a real job (as a Hollywood screenwriter no less), a wife, a dog. And once or twice a week, depending on the sport and time of season, I’d write “Love/Hate” or some other column.
I lived in Los Angeles and all I’d do is write something and email it in. That was it. There was no office to go to, no team meetings I had to attend, no podcast I had to record with someone else at Rotoworld.
It was fun, it was low stress, it didn’t take all that much time.
But in 2004, I was having lunch with a friend who was a very successful entrepreneur. And he didn’t understand why I was continuing to just keep grinding, week in and week out, for like $25 a column. “Stop working for the man,” he said “and go be the man.”
I wasn’t worried about what they were paying me, I explained. I had a real job that paid me enough to live and this was just something I did for fun. It was a passion play for me, that’s all. I did it because I loved fantasy sports and I got enjoyment out of it. For the last five years I hadn’t thought beyond that at all.
But the more we talked, the more exciting he made it seem. You’ve developed an audience of some level, he said and did I think they would follow me? I had no idea, I said.
Editor’s Note: The Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide is now available exclusively through a new partnership with Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life. Buy a FantasyLife+ subscription and get the Rotoworld Draft Guides, along with award-winning Fantasy, Betting & DFS tools. Use ROTO20 at checkout to save 20%!
This was before the days of social media. I only had very rudimentary numbers of how many people read my column every week and I had a good gig as one of the leads of Rotoworld. Leaving to start my own thing was really risky and did I really want to give my nice current role up?
I explained to my friend that I knew absolutely nothing about, well, anything. I didn’t know about how you could raise money from investors, I had no experience managing people, I had literally zero knowledge in how to drive traffic on the internet, how to set up a payment processor, what legal paperwork you needed to have to set up your own company on and on and on.
My friend said don’t worry about it – I’ll teach you everything.
I went home to my wife and talked to her about it. The truth is that I was getting disillusioned with show business and I really did get a ton of joy out of creating fantasy content. It would be fun, I thought, if I was able to make it my full-time job.
There weren’t really any full-time jobs in fantasy at that point, so the only way I could do it is if I went out on my own.
It was scary as hell. I was super nervous, but I made the leap. I left Rotoworld and bought the URL “TalentedMrRoto.com” … which by the way is a terrible URL. When I was talking about it on the radio … are there two “r’s” or one, it’s long, on and on … It was the first mistake I made but certainly not the last.
My friend never ended up helping me, by the way. He was very busy – I think I got one brief phone call after that lunch – but I had already made the leap into the deep end so there was nothing to do, but start swimming and hope I found my way out.
I made so many mistakes, man. To this day I make them. But, painful as they may be in the moment, if there’s one good thing about mistakes it’s this: They are truly learning moments. I’ve made some big mistakes, but I haven’t made the same one twice.
Don’t worry, this isn’t going to be a rose-colored stroll down memory lane. But you do anything for that long you’re allowed a little reflection.
As we head into the 2024 season, my 20th of trying to make a living purely from fantasy sports and sports betting content, my 20th of being an entrepreneur, my 20th anniversary of going out “on my own” I’ve learned some lessons.
Lessons that I think are useful for entrepreneurship, for life, and honestly just being a fantasy manager.
1. Trust yourself above all others.
I can’t tell you how many times I would get advice about something in business and my gut would be like “this doesn’t feel right” but I’d be like, well, “this person knows more than me so… okay.” And it turned out I should have trusted my gut. At the end of the day, it’s your company, family or fantasy team. You have to live with it and no one thinks about it or knows it like you. Trust yourself above all others.
2. Take your time, ask every question, be thorough when you hire people.
This is true whether you are running a business or just hiring a babysitter. We all “hire” people. But once you hire someone, let them do the job you hired them to do. Micromanaging not only impairs their ability to do the job, but it takes focus away from the job you’re supposed to be doing. Hire good people and then get out of their way.
That said...
3. If you made a mistake in hiring, admit the mistake quickly and move on.
Too many times I stuck with someone wrong for the job (or fantasy player that wasn’t getting it done) for way too long. The longer they are there, the more damage they will cause and you are ultimately doing them a favor as well. No one wants to be in a position they aren’t right for. It’s best to pull the plug early and move on. Too many times in my career I kept people around much longer than I should because I “felt bad” or tried to talk myself into that it wasn’t as bad as I thought or that the person would improve. It never worked out that way.
4. Be loyal.
There have certainly been times over the years that people I have been loyal to have then turned around and stabbed me in the back, but for the most part, when someone knows you truly have their back no matter what, you get the same in return.
5. I’m a big believer in you’re only as good as your word.
When you say you’ll do something, do it. If I shake your hand and tell you something is done, it’s done. That attitude has served me well and it’s appreciated.
6. Be nice, but not too nice. Be supportive, kind and help where you can. Treat people well.
This includes those you work for, those who work for you, and everyone that you come in contact with. The old saying you draw more flies with honey than vinegar is true. I try to start every meeting and call with the same phrase. “How can I help?” The most valuable resource you have is other people. And if they feel like you’re nice and loyal, that will go a long way towards them returning those feelings towards you. That said, don’t be so nice that you get taken advantage of or walked all over. When you need to, stick up for yourself because often no one else will. And by being nice, when you DO have to raise an issue, it will carry more weight.
7. Always take the meeting.
Even if it doesn’t seem to make sense on the surface, I always take the meeting. I can’t tell you how many meetings or calls I’ve had over the years that didn’t seem to make sense at the time, but I developed a relationship and it came into play later. Sometimes much later and sometimes in ways that were unexpected, but you just never know. I always learn something from meeting someone new which is the biggest key. When you get an opportunity to talk to someone, do what Ted Lasso says. “Be curious, not judgmental.”
8. Pay it forward.
There are a lot of people that went out of their way when I was starting out in this industry to help me out and there’s nothing I wouldn’t do for any of them. I’ve had a truly great 20-year run (so far!) and there’s lots that I am proud of. But maybe there’s nothing I’m prouder of than the people I have helped in their career the way they have helped me. A writer named Joe Mason recently wrote about the “Matthew Berry coaching tree” and I was blown away with the article. Not for an ego reason, but because I’m so excited by so many people that have established themselves and I know they too will pay it forward.
9. Don’t worry about anyone else.
I was talking with one of my friends recently, a really good fantasy writer. He was upset because he had, in fact, been ripped off. Someone had taken his deeply-researched article and turned it into a popular twitter thread without giving him any credit. I told him he was right to be upset. But, even though it doesn’t seem like it, it IS a form of flattery. It took me a long time to get comfortable with this and not let it bother me, but I told him I’ve seen so many “Manifesto’s” and “100 Facts” knock-offs, people trying to write opens like me, do podcast jokes like me, all sorts of companies starting newsletters and doing a lot of things we’ve been doing at Fantasy Life, on and on. While frustrating, I said to him, what are you? A one-hit wonder? Let others be followers, I told him. You keep leading the way. Worry less about what other people are doing and focus only on what you can control – your work. Keep pushing forward. If you only had one good idea, you weren’t going to make it very far anyways.
10. Keep climbing that mountain.
I’ve written before about my late, great Uncle Lester Gold. Lester was, by any metric, incredibly successful. Dropping out of school at age 10 to help support his family, he was the epitome of a self-made man, selling junk on the streets of Denver until he opened his first used car dealership at age 18. Many more dealerships followed after that, along with land development, oil fields and much more. Married to the same woman from age 18 until he passed away in his 80s, Lester was as successful a person in both life and business as anyone I have ever met. I bring him up here because every time I saw him and asked him how he was doing, he had the exact same answer:
“Still climbing that mountain, Matthew. Still climbing that mountain.”
He was never satisfied. Whether it’s your life, your health, your knowledge, your relationships, even your business … you can always improve. His attitude was that you’re never done. No matter how high you get, you keep climbing that mountain.
I love that. Continue to keep innovating and pushing forward.
It’s interesting. When I was faced with the decision whether or not to leave ESPN, there were a lot of factors to consider. ESPN had offered me a new three-year contract, a nice raise and no additional duties. All I had to do was give up Fantasy Life. And I talked about it with my wife. I loved working at ESPN. They treated me well. I had a great job and many friends there. But I didn’t want to give up Fantasy Life. And, I felt, there would be no challenge. I had done the same job there, more or less, for 15 years. I felt if I returned there it was me just saying I was gonna ride off into the sunset.
But continuing to try and build Fantasy Life would be a challenge. Hard work, for sure. But a challenge. And I wanted to keep climbing that mountain. So I left.
Then NBC came along and said, come on over here, we’ll support that. In case you missed it, we announced this week a formal partnership between Rotoworld and Fantasy Life, including the Rotoworld Draft Guide being a part of FantasyLife+. And it’s been incredible.
To me, that’s the secret of surviving 20 years and to having another 20. Keep climbing that mountain. My newest obsession are Guillotine Leagues, which is such an insanely fun way to play fantasy football. Seriously. I liked it so much I bought the company.
Very simply, in a Guillotine League you draft a team like normal. You start a team, like normal. The switch here, however, is you don’t play head to head. You just start your lineup against the rest of the league. At the end of the week, the team with the lowest score in the league is chopped. Forever. Season over. Done. And then you keep repeating that until only one team remains.
Here’s the other kicker. All the players on the team that gets chopped go back in the free agent pool. So yeah, it’s like Week 6 and Jalen Hurts and Breece Hall are on the waiver wire. Insanity. You get $1000 FAAB that needs to last throughout the season and because you’re not playing head to head, you can have uneven numbers in the league. You can also start a league whenever you want as long as you have one more league member than weeks left in the season. Four weeks left in the season, start a five person league. Anyways, that’s the newest thing I’m working on. I often get credit for helping to bring fantasy football to the mainstream, now I want to do it again with Guillotine Leagues. By the way, it’s 100% free to play, so do it as a fun side league to all your other leagues. Trust me – once you try it, you’ll be hooked. Seriously like I said – I loved it so much, I literally bought the company.
The Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide is now available exclusively through a new partnership with Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life. Buy a FantasyLife+ subscription and get the Rotoworld Draft Guides, along with award-winning Fantasy, Betting & DFS tools. Use BERRY20 at checkout to save 20%!
The last thing I have learned over 20 years is that you truly never, ever know. Every year there are surprises, landmines, unexpected opportunities, and pitfalls to avoid. In life, in business, and fantasy football. It’s your attitude in how you approach everything that will make all the difference.
So, as you head into the 2024 fantasy football season, keep climbing that mountain. No matter what comes your way.
Which brings us, meandering very slowly, into the player section of our column. As always, this is NOT a sleeper and bust column. Rather, it’s a market inefficiency column. “Loves” are players I think will exceed their ADP, “Hates” are players I believe are being drafted too high. And as always there are a lot more “Loves” than “Hates” because the players that aren’t great already have a low draft position in many cases that tells you what folks think of their chances.
Some housekeeping:
Be sure to tune into Fantasy Football Happy Hour, with Connor Rogers, Jay Croucher, Lawrence Jackson and myself. It’s available every day wherever you get your podcasts, on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel, on demand on Peacock and live at 3 p.m. ET on SiriusXM Channel 85. Starting Sundays during the season, we will also be doing Fantasy Football Pregame from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET on Peacock and the NFL on NBC YouTube channel. And of course, I’m looking forward to another great year as a cast member of Football Night in America, leading into the game of the week on Sunday Night Football.
Thanks as always to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. Let’s get to it:
Quarterbacks I Love in 2024
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
(My rank: QB5 – Yahoo ADP: QB8)
“RIDE. OR. DIE!”
Currently going as QB 10 on ESPN and QB 8 on Yahoo, Kyler has been a top 5 QB in PPG since (checks notes) ... since HE ENTERED THE NFL IN 2019! Averaging over 20 PPG for his career, Murray has quietly been a top 10 fantasy QB in PPG for four straight seasons. Oh, and that includes last season when he returned from a torn ACL and supposedly was going to have his trademark mobility limited. Yet, Murray still put up 17-plus fantasy points in six of his eight games last season and continued his career-long streak of averaging at least 30 rushing yards per game. Get this: Last season he also had 30% of his team’s carries at the goal line – a career-high. Now he enters this year with one of the most complete WR prospects out of college in recent history in Marvin Harrison Jr., an emerging elite tight end in Trey McBride and a defense that, well, should keep Murray having to throw and run a lot in negative game script this year. Don’t believe me that Murray is set up for his best season yet? Just this week, friend of the #FFHappyHour podcast Rich Gannon said Murray is “leaps and bounds” ahead of where he was this time last year both physically and mentally. Again, he was top 10 last year on a brutal team with a significant lack of offensive weapons. Maybe most impressive of all? No one has been talking about Kyler Murray and video games … and this is the summer in which College Football 25 came out! I mean, I have some friends who haven’t left their house in five weeks! Kyler Murray is clearly locked in. And he’s locked in on my preseason Love List, as well.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
(My rank: QB6 – Yahoo ADP: QB6)
Anthony Richardson is the 2024 poster child for small sample size. A-Rich’s rookie season came to a premature end in 2023 when he didn’t see the field after October 8 due to injury. But what a small sample it was! He averaged 25.3 fantasy points in his two full games, scoring over 20 points in each one. As a rookie. That’s ... what’s the saying? Very good! He also had 10-plus rushes in each of those games and handled 35% of his team’s rush attempts, along with 38% of the Colts’ red zone and goal-line carries. But don’t think he was just a running quarterback who dinked and dunked when passing the ball. Richardson threw 23.8% of his passes 15-plus yards downfield, which would have ranked top 3 over the full season. So yes, small sample size but sometimes you just know a guy has IT and I am ALL IN on a healthy Richardson this season in fantasy. In fact, I can’t think of anyone being more optimistic about Richardson’s abilities than me. What’s that? Richardson just said he could beat LeBron in a dunk contest? Okay, outside of Anthony Richardson, no one is more optimistic about Anthony Richardson’s abilities than me. He’s my QB6 this year and QB1 in fantasy is within the range of outcomes.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
(My Rank: QB9 – Yahoo ADP QB10)
Last month Jordan Love signed a 4-year, $220 million contract with a record $75 million signing bonus. This month he lands on his first-ever preseason Love List. I’ll leave it Jordan to say which is more life changing. But I think we know. Because it seems clear that Jordan Love finds fantasy production important. Last season he put up eight games with 20 or more fantasy points. Only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts had more. Love also posted 11 games with two or more touchdown passes (tied for the most), helped in no small way by the fact that he had the second-most red zone pass attempts in the league and the second-most deep pass attempts. Surrounded by a deep and talented group of pass catchers, Love is also a dual threat as his legs chipped in with 2.9 PPG as a rusher. In an efficient offense — last season Green Bay was top 12 in yards, points and touchdowns — there’s every reason to believe Jordan Love takes another leap in his second full season as a starter.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
(My Rank: QB10 – Yahoo ADP QB13)
If you think I talked myself into Washington players of questionable abilities in years past, just wait until you see how excited I get about a Washington quarterback whose abilities are questioned by no one. But look, I’m a professional, I know not to get overexcited, so I promise I won’t get really obnoxious about Jayden Daniels quarterbacking my favorite team until after his 9th or 10th Super Bowl championship. Deal? Deal. Anyway … after a season in which Daniels won the Heisman and became the first FBS player in history with 350-plus passing yards and 200-plus rush yards in a single game, the rookie now lands in Washington where Kliff Kingsbury will be his coordinator. Don’t forget: when Kingsbury coached Kyler Murray from 2019-2022, Murray was QB5 in PPG. Already showing command of Kliff’s offense in the preseason (literally one of his first ever plays on the field was to check out of a screen and causally toss a 42-yard dime to Dyami Brown), Daniels will chuck it deep and run often. Currently going as QB 13 on Yahoo, he enters the NFL having rushed for 2,019 yards and 21 touchdowns in his two seasons as LSU’s starter. Meanwhile, last season, the four NFL quarterbacks who rushed for “just” 400 or more yards combined to average 19.9 PPG. Look, I’m not manipulating facts or massaging data here … these are just legitimately positive things to share about a Washington quarterback. THIS IS WHAT LIFE IS SUPPOSED TO BE! (Note: I sang that previous sentence from the highest mountain top. The highest mountain top in Connecticut.) Future Hall of Famer Jayden Daniels is on the Love List for 2024 and the Love List of my heart forever.
Others receiving votes: There aren’t many people whose fantasy is Brock Purdy. But he is a fine quarterback to settle down with. In his 21 career starts, Purdy has averaged 18.4 PPG and his eight games with 20-plus fantasy points last season were tied with Jordan Love for third-most. Purdy also led all quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt and completion percentage on deep passes. … Last season, Trevor Lawrence had the fourth-most pass attempts per game and the sixth-most deep pass attempts. The additions of deep threats Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. should really see his efficiency increase. And don’t forget that Lawrence’s mobility helps give him a higher floor. He now has back-to-back seasons with four-plus rushing scores and is averaging 3.5 PPG from rushing alone over that stretch. … Kirk Cousins was in the midst of a career year last season before his Achilles heel became his Achilles heel. Cousins was tied for first in touchdown passes, was second in passing yards and third in passer rating. And while Cousins is entering a new offense, it’s not THAT new. Atlanta offensive coordinator Zac Robinson worked with Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell on the Rams. As you know, I generally don’t like pocket passers in fantasy, but he’s going outside the top 20 on Yahoo. Come on. … Over the past two seasons, Jared Goff averages 18.4 PPG when playing indoors (versus just 13.3 PPG outdoors). Why do I tell you this? Because it seems the NFL scheduler has Goff on his dynasty team. Detroit will only play three outdoor games this whole season. … Last season, Matthew Stafford was top 6 in passing yards per game, had the fourth-most pass attempts in the red zone and was QB9 in PPG over his final seven games. There’s every reason to think he’ll have another strong season after the Rams added to his line and his receiving weapons in the offseason. … There’s nothing mayonnaise about Will Levis’ willingness to chuck the ball down the field. Last season he led all qualified quarterbacks in aDOT and deep ball rate, and 22% of his passes traveled 20-plus air yards (no other quarterback was above 15%). With Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd added to the fold in Tennessee, not to mention DeAndre Hopkins back and a new aggressive play caller in Brian Callahan, Levis has even more weapons to come down with the deep ball.
Quarterbacks I Hate in 2024
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
(My Rank: QB7 – Yahoo ADP QB5)
When I get to my Hates for the first time every year, I feel the need to reiterate that I don’t actually hate any of these players. Definitely not personally, and almost never as players either. They are ALL eminently talented. “Hate” – in this context – just means I don’t love their fantasy value based on where they are being drafted. And I could NEVER hate C.J. Stroud personally. I mean, think about it: he plays football … I play fantasy football. He’s 22 … I’ve been 22. His first and middle name is Coleridge Bernard … I’ve been to college, my name is Berry and I have a yard. We’re basically the same person, he and I! So with that settled, let’s focus on fantasy value, okay? I think Stroud is a fantastic real life QB who, in his second year, will have a very good season, especially with the addition of Stefon Diggs. Here’s the issue. He’s going as a top 5 fantasy QB on Yahoo. This is too high for me considering he doesn’t run much (just like his doppelganger Matty B!). Get this: Over the past two seasons, every quarterback to finish top 5 in PPG had at least 240 rush yards. Last season, Stroud ran for just 167 yards. And since 2020, only two quarterbacks have finished top 5 in PPG at the position with fewer than 240 rushing yards. Those two quarterbacks were Tom Brady in 2021 (5,316 passing yards, 43 TD) and Aaron Rodgers in 2020 (4,299 yards, 48 TD). Hey, if Stroud can put up those kinds of numbers through the air this season, I’m more than happy to be wrong about his top 5 bona fides. But, considering the Texans ranked 14th in pass rate last season and 17th in red zone pass rate, and have a good defense which will limit shootouts … just how confident can you be that Stroud post in the range of 4,500 passing yards and 45 touchdowns? It’s hard to see it. And I would know. I’m basically C.J. Stroud.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
(My Rank: QB17 – Yahoo ADP QB12)
Call me Brian Flores because I hate me some Tua Tagovailoa. Well, that’s not entirely true. I liked Tua when he got up on the stage and played Wagon Wheel with Darius Rucker. I liked Tua when I met him in person – he was very nice. And I like Tua in the heat. Over the last two seasons – from September through November – Tua has averaged 18.4 PPG. But in December? In the heat of the fantasy playoffs? He averages just 14.1 PPG over that same span. And that’s the issue. Last season, that slump was even more prolonged as Tua was just QB23 in PPG over the final 11 weeks of the season after a blistering start. There were consistency issues in 2023, too, with Tua putting up less than 15 fantasy points in more than half of his games. And then there’s the fact that almost all of his fantasy points (98% last year) are reliant on his arm, as Tua averaged just 4.4 rushing yards per game. (Notice a trend here? I don’t dig QBs that aren’t dual threats). Currently going as QB 12 on Yahoo, look, you can certainly do worse than Tua as your fantasy quarterback. But you can also do a lot better.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
(My Rank: QB19 – Yahoo ADP QB19)
Michael Jordan averaged a fairly pedestrian 17.7 PPG during his three college seasons at North Carolina. I mention that because, back in the olden days, people used to say that the only person who could stop Michael Jordan was Dean Smith, UNC’s coach at the time. Now, I’m honestly not comparing Justin Herbert to Michael Jordan. (Please don’t kill me on the internets!) But Jim Harbaugh? He’s a pretty good Dean Smith comp. Because as much as Harbaugh wins, he absolutely stifles offensive production from his marquee player. During Harbaugh’s tenure in San Francisco, the 49ers ranked second in rush rate and THIRTY-FIRST in pass attempts. His offense was much the same at Michigan. And now Herbert’s offensive coordinator is Greg Roman, who, in eight of his 10 seasons as an offensive coordinator, has seen his offenses rank 27th or lower in pass offense. So yeah, things are fairly bleak in the Justin Herbert fantasy department. And I didn’t even mention yet that the Chargers enter the season down 66% of their receptions and 63% of their receiving yards from last season with the losses of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett. Then there’s the fact that Herbert is coming off a plantar fascia injury, which is likely to hurt his rushing upside. It feels crazy to have a passer as talented as Herbert barely in the top 20 at the position … but not when that crazy-talented passer is in a talent-depleted Jim Harbaugh offense.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
(My Rank: 145 Overall (QB20) – Yahoo ADP 131.8)
Cleveland residents don’t like it when people make jokes about the river catching on fire. And for good reason! It’s been 55 years since the Cuyahoga famously caught fire. A far more relevant reference to a Cleveland fire is how the Deshaun Watson contract is essentially the same as setting $230 million aflame. In two seasons in Cleveland, Watson has played just 11 games, averaging a measly 15.8 PPG. He is 36th in yards per attempt (6.5) since joining Cleveland and 35th in off-target rate (13.8%). He has zero 300 passing yard games with the Browns and has put up less than 240 yards in 83% of his contests. He also has one touchdown pass or less in 67% of his games with the Browns. And then there’s the fact that since the 2020 season, Watson has not played more than six games in a season due to either suspension or injury. Hey, by all means, draft Watson if you want to. But it feels like you might be setting your fantasy team on fire before the season even starts.
Running Backs I Love in 2024
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
(My Rank: RB7 – Yahoo ADP RB7)
Last season, Baltimore’s four-headed running back monster of Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell and the ghost of Melvin Gordon combined for 1,696 rushing yards, 20 rushing touchdowns and 4.7 YPC. Those are impressive numbers. But what is Derrick Henry if not essentially four running backs duct taped together, barreling down the field yet somehow bigger, stronger and faster than all of them combined? Of course, those stats aren’t going to immediately transfer over to Henry’s side of the ledger. Hill and Mitchell remain on the roster. But the Ravens didn’t sign DERRICK HENRY for a timeshare. This is the guy who has led the NFL in rush attempts in four of the past five seasons and in 2023 put up nine games with 18-plus fantasy points. Only Christian McCaffrey had more among RBs. Henry has six straight seasons with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards and 10-plus touchdowns, including 68 rushing scores in his last 72 games played. And he did that on a team that, among other struggles, has ranked bottom three in the NFL in yards per carry before contact each of the last two years. Now he gets a Ravens offensive line that has LED the NFL in yards per carry before contact each of the last two years. That same Ravens offense has seen their running backs combine to average a league-high 4.8 YPC since Lamar Jackson became the starter in 2019. I’m duct taping the fantasy monster that is Derrick Henry to as many teams as I can this year. And the best part is that he only takes up one roster spot, not four.
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
(My Rank: RB8 – Yahoo ADP RB9)
Throughout the off-season, Pacheco was on the short list for this year’s “Ride or Die.” Easy to see why and not just because he runs like he hates the ground. Isiah Pacheco was one of just 11 backs last season with 200-plus rushes and 40 receptions. He was top 10 in percentage of team rush attempts and saw 68% of Kansas City’s red zone rushes (tied for fifth-most in the league). But here’s the biggest reason I’m so in on Pacheco this season. Including the playoffs, he averaged 19.9 PPG in the seven games in which Jerick McKinnon was not in uniform. Plus, his usage in those games totally backs up that production as he averaged 21.4 touches to go along with a 73% snap rate and an 11.7% target share. The reason that’s so important is because Jerick McKinnon remains unsigned and a KC reunion appears unlikely. As the 2023 season progressed, it became increasingly clear that the Chiefs were fully confident in the talented, hard-running Pacheco as their lead back on ALL THREE DOWNS. And as the 2024 offseason progressed, it became even MORE clear. As things stand now, the backs behind Pacheco on KC’s depth chart are Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Deneric Prince, rookie Carson Steele and Keontay Ingram. Remember that goat Pacheco carried through the crowd at Kansas City’s Super Bowl parade back in February? You could make the case that goat is the second-best back in Kansas City right now. I mean, at least the goat has some positive tape.
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
(My Rank: RB11 – Yahoo ADP RB11)
Last season, De’Von Achane led all running backs in fantasy points per touch. In his eight games with 10-plus touches, he averaged 22.9 PPG. A league-high 21% of his rushes went for 10-plus yards and he was third among backs in avoided tackle rate. In his nine games with 20-plus snaps he averaged 2.6 red zone touches and had a double-digit target share in six of those contests. And he set the NFL record for highest YPC (7.8) by a back in a season with a minimum of 100 touches. I have no flowery language here in my Achane write up. No (attempted) jokes. I’m just trying to be as efficient with my words as De’Von Achane is with the ball. Get this guy on your fantasy teams.
Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
(My Rank: RB12 – Yahoo ADP RB13)
With all the attention C.J. Stroud got last season in his rookie campaign – and deservedly so – the general perception is that the Texans run a pass-heavy offense. But that is not the case. Last season Houston was top 12 in running back carries and, from Week 9 on, Devin Singletary averaged 19 touches per game. Now the Texans have a back who is undeniably more talented than Devin Singletary in Joe Mixon. Mixon comes to Houston off a season in which he was one of just five backs who had 250 carries and 50 receptions. He led all backs in goal-line rushes and put up eight games with 15-plus fantasy points and five games with 20-plus. Will he be efficient? No. But he will once again get volume on one of the best offenses in football. Remember, Mixon has averaged at least 18 touches per game in six straight seasons. He’s not a pick that will make anyone in your draft go “oooh” but he is cheap boring volume that will be very productive at ADP. With only Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbowale behind him on the depth chart, I love getting Mixon’s RB2 production in the fourth round or later.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
(My Rank: RB13 – Yahoo ADP RB15)
James Cook broke out in a big way last season. His 33 rushes of 10-plus yards was second to only Christian McCaffrey and he led all backs (minimum of 50 targets) with 8.2 yards per target. But Cook really took off when Joe Brady took over as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator in Week 11. From then through the end of the season, Cook was RB11 in PPG. Over that same stretch, Cook averaged 19.6 touches and had a 12% target share. And, after Brady’s ascension to OC, the Bills ranked second in RB carries per game. Brady believes in Cook and Cook produced. And to be honest, I’m just excited to be able to hear the words “Brady” and “Cook” positively again and not have to immediately think of the TB12 diet. Healthy food? At every meal? No, thank you.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
(My Rank: RB18 – Yahoo ADP RB20)
Every year we try to move past James Conner in search of the next thing … and every year James Conner manages to maintain his fantasy relevance. In fact, last season Conner didn’t just manage to stay relevant, he put up his first NFL season with 1,000 rushing yards. He was also fourth among all running backs in scrimmage yards per game (92.7). And not only does Conner have staying power in fantasy, he has literal power running the ball. Last season he was second in yards after contact per attempt (3.9). He was also second in highest avoided tackle rate (28.8%). In all three of his seasons in Arizona, he has finished as a top 15 back in PPG and over that same timespan, he is one of just four backs in the league with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards and eight-plus touchdowns in every season. James Conner isn’t going anywhere. So you may as well let him do his thing from the RB2 position on your fantasy team.
Others receiving votes: If there’s been one theme of Saints training camp, it’s head coach Dennis Allen griping about Kendre Miller’s injuries. If Dennis Allen had a Hate List? Miller would be at the very top. And who knows, considering Jamaal Williams averaged 2.9 YPC last season, Williams might be on there, too. But Alvin Kamara? He would not be. Last season Kamara led all backs in target share and receptions per game. He also averaged 19.6 touches per game. And yeah, with Miller and Williams behind him? I don’t see his usage going down anytime soon. … The Steelers love having two people at the same position. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. George Pickens and Some Guy Probably. But of those duos, I like Harris and Warren the best. The Falcons had 500+ RB touches in each of the past two seasons under Arthur Smith and his offenses have ranked top 3 in rush attempts in three of the last four seasons. So Harris and Warren are going to get a ton of usage. The Steelers have also tried to bolster their line and Harris is coming off of arguably his best season as a pro, while Warren was seventh in fantasy points per touch among backs in 2023. (I’m not worried about Warren’s injury, by the way). … During Kliff Kingsbury’s tenure as Arizona head coach, the Cardinals ranked top 8 in red zone rush rate. Kenyan Drake led the league in goal-to-go carries in 2020, while James Conner was second in 2021. That’s good news for Kingsbury’s new lead back, Brian Robinson, who put up 17.7 PPG last season in his seven games with at least 14 touches. I LOVE B Rob this year as I expect Austin Ekeler to have more of the “Chase Edmonds in Arizona under Kliff” type role in this offense while Robinson is the Conner-esque hammer. ... Back in December, Tony Pollard told reporters he didn’t feel fully recovered from the fractured fibular he suffered in the 2022-23 playoffs until after Dallas’ Week 7 bye. The numbers bear that out. Before the bye, Pollard had the second-lowest avoided tackle rate. After the bye, he had the third-highest. He should be in line for a bounce-back season in Tennessee. … The Titans actually have two fantasy relevant backs this season in Pollard and Tyjae Spears. Last season Spears averaged 14.8 PPG in his four games with 11-plus touches. He also posted a double-digit target share in 14 of his 17 games. … The Carolina Panthers made Jonathon Brooks the first running back selected in the draft and new head coach Dave Canales said that Brooks’ versatility was the biggest thing that stood out. Considering that Tampa Bay ranked top 10 in running back receiving yards under Canales, and that Brooks was a weapon out of the backfield at Texas, there’s a lot to be excited about here. … Joe Mixon’s departure opens up 309 touches in the Cincinnati backfield and Chase Brown has been getting most of the first team work for the Bengals in camp. … Look, as a Commanders fan, I want to be down on the Cowboys as much as anyone. But if you punt on early RB and are looking for cheap volume, Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle should form a productive combo this season. Dallas averaged 26.6 RB touches in 2023 and Pollard vacates 307 touches. Meanwhile, during Elliott’s brief Cowboys exile in New England, he was RB9 in PPG from Weeks 14 through 18. And Dowdle had 12-plus fantasy points last season in three of his four games with double-digit touches. … Kyren Williams has missed 12 games over the past two seasons. That’s a big reason the Rams drafted Blake Corum, who led the FBS in 2023 with 27 rushing scores. … Reports out of Jets camp have Braelon Allen as the clear frontrunner for the RB2 job behind Breece Hall. That means Allen provides insurance and, at just 20 years of age, is a great dynasty stash. … I mean, based on how Daniel Jones has looked, you have to like every Giants running back, right? The Giants can’t allow Jones to throw the ball, like, ever? Can they? Anyway, only Devin Singletary currently stands ahead of Tyrone Tracy on the depth chart and the two guys behind Tracy have just a combined 27 career touches. … In between bouts of yelling at Russell Wilson last season, Sean Payton gave three Denver backs 100-plus touches. Jaleel McLaughlin was the most efficient and explosive of the group and should have an even bigger role in 2024.
Running Backs I Hate in 2024
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(My Rank: 52 Overall (RB15) – Yahoo ADP: 38.3)
If volume is king in fantasy, efficiency is the prince. Players like Christian McCaffrey have volume AND efficiency and therefore become fantasy royalty. Players like Rachaad White have volume and NO efficiency … and end up on the Hate List. (The palace dungeon of fantasy, if you will.) While White’s 336 touches last season were second only to McCaffrey’s 339, his 3.6 YPC ranked 36th out of 44 qualified backs. His 2.5 YAC/attempt was 42nd out of 49 backs with 100 or more carries. He also had the seventh-lowest success rate among qualified backs. It’s all a big reason why the Bucs had the fewest rushing yards in the NFL last season. With offensive coordinator Dave Canales (“We’re running no matter what!”) moving onto Carolina and positive camp reports about Bucky Irving, I have concerns about White getting the same volume as last year. And the only pro White argument right now is massive volume. So despite his RB4 overall finish last season, I have White as only my RB15 heading into 2024.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
(My Rank: 78 Overall (RB22) – Yahoo ADP: 64.0)
Over the past two seasons, 45% of Rhamondre Stevenson’s fantasy points have come as a receiver. That’s great! What’s not great is that the Patriots went out and signed pass-catching RB Antonio Gibson in the off-season. What’s also not great is that PFF has the Patriots offensive line ranked 28th heading into 2024. Additionally not great? Stevenson is coming off a season in which he had career lows in YPC, yards per target and catch rate. A further not great thing? Only 6% of Stevenson’s rushes last season gained 10-plus yards, fifth-lowest among backs with 150 carries. All these not greats? They lead to a Hate.
D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
(My Rank: 84 Overall (RB24) – Yahoo ADP: 74.9)
Among qualified backs last season, D’Andre Swift was 42nd in fantasy points per touch. His 2.4 YAC/rush was fifth-lowest among backs with 100-plus rushes. He also got just 34% of team red zone carries, which was 33rd among qualified backs. And he posted a career-low target share. Now he joins a crowded backfield (Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson) on a team that saw three different backs get 110-plus touches in 2023. The upside here, Bears fans? Ummm … a very unproductive Swift would mean more reason for Caleb Williams to throw the ball and that should be fun? Sure, let’s go with that.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
(My Rank: 91 Overall (RB27) – Yahoo ADP: 70.6)
White was 53rd among qualified backs in fantasy points per touch last season. He also has a career target share of just 2%, totaling only 15 receptions in 31 career games. But all that is in the past. I’m more concerned about the present and future. Because throughout the preseason, Alexander Mattison has taken some snaps with the starting unit and has played over White on passing downs. So White could potentially be an early-down committee back on a below average offense … not exactly the type of profile that leads to fantasy points. He’s still likely to open the season as the lead back … but he’s just as likely to close the season on your fantasy bench.
Pass Catchers I Love in 2024
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
(My Rank: 4 Overall – Yahoo ADP: 7.2)
Before you scream obvious name at me or on your message board of choice, understand that this is entirely about the first round. Currently going outside the top seven picks on both Yahoo and ESPN, I have JJ as a top four player overall. And in the first round, where every pick is so crucial, that’s a massive difference. I don’t get it. The only argument against Jefferson is Sam Darnold. That’s it. My argument: Sam Darnold may not be great but he’s at least as good as Nick Mullens. Get this: In Justin Jefferson’s four full games without Kirk Cousins last season, where Mullens played for almost all of the final four games, Jefferson STILL averaged 22.1 PPG. In Jefferson’s eight healthy games in 2023, he averaged 127 yards per game on a 31% target share. For his career, he averages 98.3 receiving yards per game – the highest in NFL history – and has averaged more than 105 receiving yards in each of the past two seasons. Justin Jefferson is special. In fact, he’s so good he could put up numbers with a JUGS machine at quarterback. I’m all-in on Justin Jefferson this season as a top 5 overall pick and you should be, too.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
(My Rank: WR10 – Yahoo ADP WR13)
Drake London may not be on Justin Jefferson’s level. But that won’t stop Kirk Cousins from trying to put him there. In five of Cousins’ six seasons in Minnesota, he supported a top 10 wide receiver. And London – who has a 26% target share for his career and has 32% of Atlanta’s red zone targets over the past two seasons (sixth among WRs) – is clearly Atlanta’s WR1. Then there’s the Zac Robinson factor. Atlanta’s new offensive coordinator was on the Rams’ staff from 2019-2023 and, over that stretch, the Rams ranked No. 2 in WR target share and fourth in WR fantasy points. (Shout out to my little Cooper Kupp!) London came very close to being this year’s Fantasy “Ride or Die” and while I went another way, he’s in for a monster year.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
(My Rank: 19 Overall (WR12) – Yahoo ADP: 27.1)
O-LAV-VEY or … O-LOVE, EH? You can make an argument for either if you’re, you know, five thousand words in and no longer particularly picky about what you call a “joke.” One thing that isn’t a joke is the continued ascension of young Chris. Two years ago as a rookie, Chris Olave finished WR26 in fantasy. Last season he came in at WR19. If he continues that trajectory, he should land right around my projection of WR12 in 2024. And there’s every reason to think that he takes another jump this season. Olave has a target share above 25% in each of his NFL seasons, averages 16.1 PPG in his 19 career games with seven-plus targets and last season was top 5 in deep targets and top 10 in slot targets. The underlying usage and efficiency numbers are both there. Plus, now Olave will be utilized in a Klint Kubiak offense that should bring some of San Francisco’s pre-snap motion to New Orleans. Olave’s right on that low-end WR1, high-end WR2 line for me.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
(My Rank: 29 Overall (WR18) – Yahoo ADP: 34.9)
Cooper Kupp launched a coffee company this offseason. That’s right. That means I can pour Cooper Kupp’s coffee into my little Cooper Kupp. It’s very exciting. But the excitement doesn’t end there. Because Kupp is healthy again and should resume his general awesomeness. In Kupp’s 11 healthy games last season, he had a 27% target share. He also had the same number of targets as Puka Nacua in those games … the takeaway being that Nacua’s presence obviously hurts Kupp some, but Kupp is still heavily involved in the Rams offense. A Rams offense that, by the way, led the league in WR target share last season. Kupp also received 37% of the Rams’ red zone targets in his healthy games and was tied for fourth among all WRs in red zone targets per game (1.5). In the 11 healthy games in which Nacua and Kupp both played, Nacua averaged 15.5 targets while Kupp averaged 14.8. And yet Kupp is going two to three rounds later and camp reports are that Kupp, not Nacua, has been WR1 for the Rams so far. So yeah, just like the Cooper Kupp coffee I sip from my Cooper Kupp each morning, he can still energize your fantasy team.
Malik Nabers, New York Giants
(My Rank: WR19 – Yahoo ADP WR26)
Immediately the favorite for most fantasy teams named after him among rookies this year (Won’t you be my Nabers? Don’t covet your Nabers ___, etc. etc.), but he should also be a favorite draft pick of managers. Look, the Giants didn’t have a single player see 80-plus targets last season. So it’s no surprise that New York went out and used the No. 6 overall pick to install the supremely talented Nabers as their WR1. I believe he is QB proof and whatever inefficiency there may be from his QB will be masked by insane volume. Since 2018, all five WRs drafted in the top 10 saw 100-plus targets in their rookie season … and three of them finished as top 24 wide receivers in total points (Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and Garrett Wilson). Look for Nabers to join that list this year. I mean, look for Nabers to become Nabers with them. (Sorry.)
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
(My Rank: WR25 – Yahoo ADP WR34)
There’s a lot to love about Rashee Rice as a football player. Last season, over his final six games, he was WR8 in PPG at 18.5. He also saw a 27.3% target share over that stretch and reeled in 7.2 catches per game. His 77% catch rate led all WRs with 50-plus targets. And he was top 10 among WRs in fantasy points per target and yards per route run. On the downside of his rookie season? His rookie offseason. An offseason that may lead to a suspension. There’s also a decent chance any disciplinary action happens next year. But as long as you factor the possibility that you might need to weather a few Rice-less weeks at some point this season, his production will do a lot for your team when he’s on the field.
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
(My Rank: TE3 – Yahoo ADP TE3)
Fading Trey McBride after his breakout 2023 is a popular practice right now in fantasy circles. And I’m all for it. Because that means more Trey McBride shares for me. As good as McBride was last season, he was even better when Kyler Murray was in the lineup. And, as you may have heard, Kyler Murray is healthy. Check this out, here is where McBride ranked among TEs after Murray returned in Week 10:
· TE3 in PPG (14.9)
· 1st in target share (25.2%)
· 2nd in receptions per game (6.6)
· 4th in receiving yards per game (67.3)
And that’s not from a small sample size. That’s eight games worth of data. Don’t overthink things, especially not when you have a chance to land a top-tier tight end. Trey McBride is real and he is spectacular.
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
(My Rank: TE8 – Yahoo ADP TE9)
Jake Ferguson was one of just seven tight ends to get 100-plus targets last season and one of just two Cowboys to hit that number, along with CeeDee Lamb. With Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup vacating 124 targets, Ferguson’s usage may even tick UP in 2024. The Cowboys simply love the guy. He led all tight ends in red zone targets and was tied for second in end zone looks. He was also top three at the position in routes run. Not convinced? Then how about this: Before every game, Ferguson drinks pickle juice, orange Gatorade and beet juice. Okay, that probably actually hurts my case. Should have just stuck with the stats. Anyway, Ferguson is a top 10 TE for me that could easily wind up top 5 with increased volume and some TD luck.
Others receiving votes: Tank Dell had a 21.5% target share in his healthy games last season and that swelled to 28.5% in the final four weeks before his injury. And for good reason. Dell simply produces. He averaged 23.4 PPG in his six games with seven-plus targets and his 14.3 aDOT last season was top 5 among all wide receivers. Even though I don’t believe C.J. Stroud is worth his current ADP, he’s still a helluva QB and all three Houston WRs will eat this year. So give me Stroud’s BFF who is going the cheapest of the three … Over his two seasons in Jacksonville, Christian Kirk is WR27 in PPG (13.5) and has averaged 65-plus receiving yards per game in both years. Love his high floor. … Dave Canales implied in July that the Panthers are going to center their offense around Diontae Johnson. Look, I don’t care how bad you think the Panthers are, I will gladly nab someone an NFL team plans to center its offense around in the middle rounds. Don’t forget: the Panthers ranked top 10 in wide receiver target share last season, while Canales’ Tampa Bay unit was all the way up at No. 2. … Xavier Worthy ran a Combine-record 4.21 40. I mean, that’s basically Noah Lyles-type speed. And Patrick Mahomes has proven he can do well with speed. (See: Hill, Tyreek.) By the way, Andy Reid got a WR21 (in PPG) season out of Hill as a rookie and a WR35 season out of DeSean Jackson as a rookie. Put it this way: passing on a receiver with Noah Lyles’ speed would be the fantasy equivalent of dancing like RayGun. … DeAndre Hopkins may no longer be a top 10 WR, but he’s still plenty productive. Believe it or not, last season Hopkins posted a career-high aDOT (14.1). He also had 45% of Tennessee’s end zone targets and 36% of their red zone targets. As a fantasy analyst, those are all thirst trap stats for me. DeAndre knows what I mean. … Jameson Williams has been having a lights-out training camp for the Lions and his role had already grown to a snap rate of 70%-plus in two of Detroit’s three playoff games. Josh Reynolds’ departure also vacates 64 targets and a 71% snap rate in the offense. The breakout season the Lions have been patiently waiting for could be here. … Get this: Josh Palmer is the ONLY wide receiver on the Chargers roster with at least 40 career receptions from Justin Herbert. So yeah, maybe not quite the familiarity of Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison, but it’s something. Palmer, by the way, has averaged 14.4 PPG in his 16 career games with seven-plus targets. … In 2020, Curtis Samuel had his career-best season (and finished as WR27 in PPG) while a member of the Panthers. His offensive coordinator that season? Joe Brady. His offensive coordinator this season in Buffalo? Joe Brady! Yay! Now, he needs to get healthy. By the way, last season Samuel was top 10 in slot targets, and now he’s joining a Bills team that ranked fourth in slot targets in 2023. … I like the upside of Greg Dortch this season paired with a healthy Kyler Murray. In Dortch’s 10 career games with a snap rate above 70%, he averages 14.6 PPG and has a 20.7% target share. I guess my point is: In 2024, you can do worse than making your fantasy team name Olympic Dortch. Or The Human Dortch. (You can also do way better. Way, way better.) … Last season the Rams used 11 personnel (i.e. 3 WRs) on a league-high 95% of their plays. That means the Rams’ WR3 DeMarcus Robinson (and keep an eye on rookie Jordan Whittington!) has some week-to-week fantasy viability. But he’ll be especially useful if Nacua or Kupp (no!) miss any time. … I wish my Commanders had Christian McCaffrey, but I will happily take my consolation prize of Luke McCaffrey. During Kliff Kingsbury’s Arizona tenure, the Cardinals ranked second in slot targets and McCaffrey’s specialty is working out of the slot. Also, Jahan Dotson has had a tough camp. … The Steelers not having much in the way of a WR2 is bad for the Steelers, but very good for Pat Freiermuth managers. Freiermuth had 42% of Pittsburgh’s end zone targets last season, tops among all tight ends. Arthur Smith offenses have finished top 5 in TE target share in four of his five seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator. … Noah Fant has had a snap rate above 70% just twice in his career, 2020 and 2021. He was TE13 in PPG over that timeframe. With Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly out of the picture in Seattle, Fant’s playing time – and production – should spike again. … If Taysom Hill is TE eligible in your leagues, read this. If he’s not, skip ahead to the next write up, okay? Go. SCRAM! GET LOST! Okay, it’s just us now. Last season, in Hill’s eight games with 10-plus touches, he averaged 14.5 PPG and his seven games with double-digit points ranked top 10 at the position. He also posted career highs in targets (40), receptions (33) and receiving yards (291). And the running ability is obviously always there. Okay, everyone else can come back now and continue reading. … When Mark Andrews was injured from Weeks 12-18 last season, Isaiah Likely was TE5 in PPG (13.9), saw 25% of Baltimore’s red zone targets and caught five touchdowns. And word out of Ravens camp is that Likely will see the field a lot more this season, regardless of Andrews’ health. And obviously, if anything happened to Andrews you’ll wish you had Likely stashed on your bench. … Speaking of a tight end with injury concerns: Zach Ertz. Since 2014, his target share has never been below 18%. He is now reunited in Washington with Kliff Kingsbury and remember when the two were together in Arizona from 2021-2022, Ertz was the TE6 in PPG. And hey, if(/when?) Ertz does get injured, Washington didn’t spend a second-round pick on Ben Sinnott for nothing. The rookie would quickly step into Ertz’s job.
Pass Catchers I Hate in 2024
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
(My Rank: WR32 – Yahoo ADP WR28)
There’s a lot to Hate about George Pickens’ fantasy prospects heading into 2024. Last season, a full THIRTY PERCENT of his fantasy points came in just two games. He had less than 50 receiving yards in 53% of his games and single-digit fantasy points in 59% of his games. Then there’s the Arthur Smith factor. Don’t forget: Drake London never finished as a top 40 WR in PPG under Smith. So yeah, it’s bad. Quite bad. And this is without mentioning the possible looming acquisition of Brandon Aiyuk, which would push Pickens down to Pittsburgh’s WR2. I already have him way down at WR32.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
(My Rank: WR42 – Yahoo ADP WR42)
Christian Watson’s catch rate last season was just 53%, sixth-lowest among players with 50-plus targets. That means that if you toss a football at Christian Watson, it’s essentially a coin toss that he comes down with it. Not ideal. Last season, Watson put up less than seven fantasy points in 44% of his games and, for his career, he has less than 12 fantasy points in 70% of his games. Oh, and he’s also injury prone, having missed 11 games over the past two seasons. The Packers are going to have a wide receiver by committee this year and barring injury to one of them it’s going to be hard to count on any of them for consistent fantasy production. So in case you didn’t figure it out, Christian Watson is on my Hate List. You know, if the large HATE heading a half-scroll up didn’t tip you off to this big reveal.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
(My Rank: WR48 – Yahoo ADP WR41)
Jordan Addison is a huge negative regression candidate in 2024. He scored 10 touchdowns last season on just 15 red zone targets. He also averaged a measly 6.8 PPG in his nine games without a score, averaging just 34 receiving yards per game in those contests. Addison – unlike Justin Jefferson – also fell way off without Kirk Cousins. In the nine games without Cousins, Addison was WR43 in PPG (10.5). But at least he was scoring some fantasy points over that time. He won’t be scoring any fantasy points if he gets suspended for his July DUI arrest.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
(My Rank: WR50 – Yahoo ADP WR45)
In Courtland Sutton’s six NFL seasons, only once has he averaged more than 11.9 PPG … and that was a relatively pedestrian 13.9 PPG output back in 2020. Last season he put up career lows in aDOT and deep targets, and he posted only four games with more than 70 receiving yards. But look, I really don’t like being negative. Honest. So here’s a positive: Last season Sutton scored 10 touchdowns … and still finished way down at WR38 in PPG. That’s very hard to do! I’m honestly impressed.
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
(My Rank: TE12 – Yahoo ADP TE12)
Brock Bowers couldn’t have landed in a worse spot. Bad offense, a bad offense that doesn’t throw the ball much (Vegas ranked 22nd in pass rate after Antonio Pierce took over the job), a transitional quarterback, a fellow young tight end in Michael Mayer to compete with for playing time, and a superstar receiver in Davante Adams who is sure to get the bulk of the targets. Despite all the talent, Brock Bowers is a Hate for me. But hey, it’s Vegas. At least it’s a dry Hate.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
(My Rank: TE14 – Yahoo ADP TE13)
Dalton Schultz is a nice player, but he still has just one season in his entire career with 90-plus targets (2021). How much upside do you really think he has in a balanced Houston offense in which he’ll be the fourth option in the passing game behind Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell? And heck, depending on the week, behind Joe Mixon, too? Schultz’s snap rate last season (73%) was also the lowest of his career. Sorry, I’m not faultin’ Dalton, but he’s a Hate. (Hey, 7,000 words into this thing. You get the jokes and forced wordplay that you get. No refunds.)
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
(My Rank: TE16 – Yahoo ADP TE15)
Cole Kmet has three straight seasons with a target share of at least 17%. But with Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift now in the fold, it’s hard to see that continuing - especially now with Kmet splitting time with Gerald Everett all preseason. Allen’s presence in the slot may hurt Kmet most of all, as 49% of Kmet’s targets last season came in the slot. Actually, maybe it’s the presence of new Chicago OC Shane Waldron that will hurt Kmet the most. Under Waldron last season, the Seahawks ranked 25th in TE target share. So, in conclusion, Cole Kmet’s 2024 will be stymied by Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Gerald Everett and Shane Waldron. Gotta love a full-team effort.
