The Houston Texans, with a rookie QB, rookie head coach, and a rookie No. 2 wide receiver who is 5-foot-8 and was picked on Day 3 of the NFL draft will make the playoffs. Almost 40-year-old Joe Flacco, currently on his couch, will sign with the Browns in the middle of the season, and, as the fourth starting QB for Cleveland this season, will become a top four fantasy QB on a PPG basis over the fantasy playoffs, leading many managers to fantasy championships. A fifth-round rookie wide receiver named Puka Nacua will be a top four fantasy wide receiver and set the NFL record for receiving yards by a rookie. Consensus top three fantasy QB Patrick Mahomes will stay healthy all year, but still be outscored this year by QBs not currently being drafted, including Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, and Jared Goff. Plus, Mahomes will score just six more fantasy points than Baker Mayfield. No running back will have more rushing touchdowns this year than 31-year-old Raheem Mostert, with 18.
If I had written the above paragraph exactly one year ago today, you’d have stopped reading immediately, cursed me out on social media and started an angry Reddit thread. And yet, crazy as that paragraph would have been to read last year, every single thing written there ended up coming true.
I usually do this as a list for my Ten Lists of Ten column, but this year I ran out of lists, so I thought I would do it here. It’s my “bold predictions” piece. Back in the day, I used to call it “You Heard Me!” As in, I say.
The idea here isn’t to try and nail outrageous, low-probability predictions. To be considered “bold predictions” they have to, by nature, be unlikely to happen. This allows me to highlight some players I have strong feelings about this year, one way or the other. Like, I say Jake Ferguson finishes as a top three fantasy tight end this year. You heard me! My thinking? The Cowboys’ lack of target competition after CeeDee Lamb should make Ferguson the No. 2 option on what should, once again, be one of the pass-heaviest teams in the NFL. Ferguson not only earns targets, but he earns high-value ones. He led all tight ends last year in red zone targets and was tied for second in end zone targets. With more targets between the 20’s (Michael Gallup and Tony Pollard vacate 124 targets from last year) and some TD luck, Ferguson has a shot to get there.
So, like that. Maybe I nail the Ferguson call, maybe I don’t, but I feel very strongly that, assuming health, he has a very big season and well outperforms his ADP. With that, here are 10 other bold predictions for the upcoming 2024 season.
1. I say Kyler Murray finishes as the No. 1 QB in fantasy. You heard me!
My thinking: Come on, he’s my “Ride or Die” for a reason. Part of the basis with “Ride or Die” every year is highlighting players who are very good, but just aren’t thought of that way. Three years ago, after a three-touchdown season, no one thought Austin Ekeler would score touchdowns or get goal line work. I named him my “Ride or Die” and he scored 20 that year, including 12 rushing. Two years ago, no one thought Jalen Hurts could be a franchise QB and Philly fans were angry the Eagles hadn’t drafted a QB. He finished as QB1 and was very seriously in the MVP conversation. Last year, I said Amon-Ra St. Brown was an elite, top five WR in the NFL, but no one thinks of him like that – he was routinely going outside the top 12 in drafts. He finished as WR3. So, Kyler to me is an elite NFL and fantasy QB, but no one thinks of him like that. He gets injured, he plays too many video games, blah blah blah. A top five fantasy QB on a PPG basis ever since he came into the NFL, Murray is now fully healthy, surrounded by the best group of talent he’s ever had, and he quietly had 30% of Arizona’s goal line carries last year, despite missing about half the year. He’s got the talent, weapons and scheme. Now, he just needs to put it all together. I say this is the year he does.
2. I say Brian Robinson Jr. scores 15 touchdowns. You heard me!
Shout to my friend Paul Charchian, founder of Guillotine Leagues, for asking this question:
Three years ago, Damien Harris had 15 touchdowns.
Two years ago, Jamaal Williams had 17 touchdowns.
Last year, Raheem Mostert had 18 touchdowns.
Who’s the random running back this year that scores 15 touchdowns?
My thinking: The Commanders should have a better offense under Jayden Daniels, leading them to being in scoring position more often and, given Daniels frame, they won’t want him handing a ton of goal line work. Enter Robinson Jr., who is a very good and tough running back around the goal line. Under Kliff Kingsbury (Washington’s new OC), the high-flying Cardinals were top eight in red zone rush rate, and both James Conner and Kenyan Drake (Kenyan Drake!) had seasons where they were top two in goal-to-go carries under Kliff.
3. I say Kenneth Walker III catches over 50 balls this year en route to being a top five fantasy running back. You heard me!
My thinking: It’s a bet on a much more aggressive passing offense under new Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb this year. Walker already has big play ability (over the last two years only Christian McCaffrey has more runs of 20+ yards), but he’s never been used as a pass catcher consistently (29 receptions last year). I believe he’s a much more talented pass catcher than he gets credit for, and under Grubb the Seahawks will try to exploit that, getting the ball in space to a dynamic game-breaking talent like Walker.
4. I say Malik Nabers outscores Marvin Harrison Jr. and finishes as a top 10 fantasy wide receiver. You heard me!
My thinking: While I love MHJ as part of my “Ride or Die’s” offense, the Cardinals (and Murray) will also use Trey McBride, Greg Dortch (more on him later), Murray’s legs, and more to score points. Meanwhile, Nabers is all the Giants have. A phenomenal talent who led the SEC in receptions each of the last two years, he will get a massive target share on a team that will need to throw, and throw often this year.
5. Will Levis takes a big step forward, becoming a borderline top 12 fantasy QB. You heard me!
My thinking: A much-improved offensive line will give Levis time to throw to a new set of weapons in Tennessee under a new head coach (Brian Callahan) who was top five in pass rate the last five seasons as the OC in Cincy.
6. Jaleel McLaughlin outscores his AFC West (and being drafted much, much higher) counterpart, Zamir White. You heard me!
My thinking: McLaughlin, who is a fast pass-catcher, will likely have an expanded role in what should be a better Broncos offense with uncertain competition around him. Meanwhile, White won’t be used in the passing game, will split early down work with Alexander Mattison, and be on a Raiders team that will not be in scoring position all that often.
7. Tyrone Tracy overtakes Devin Singletary and Bucky Irving overtakes Rachaad White to become their teams’ lead RBs over the second half of the year. You heard me!
My thinking: I just think the rookies are more talented than the guys ahead of them and eventually talent wins out.
8. Diontae Johnson finishes as a top 12 WR. You heard me!
My thinking: Johnson has had four straight years with a target share of at least 22%, and now he’s in Carolina under new head coach Dave Canales, who was previously the Bucs OC. Last year, we not only saw what Canales did for Baker Mayfield, but we saw what he did for Mike Evans (Tampa Bay was second in wide receiver target share in 2023 under Canales). Now, Johnson will be the focal point of a Panthers’ passing offense led by a much-improved Bryce Young. If Johnson gets a little touchdown luck, watch out.
9. Greg Dortch, aka The Human Dortch, finishes as a top 30 fantasy wide receiver. You heard me!
My thinking: Dortch is going to be the main slot guy for an Arizona offense that you know I am high on. He’s had 10 games where he’s gotten a snap rate above 70%. In those games, he averaged 14.6 PPG. For comparison, last year Chris Olave averaged 14.5 PPG. Touchdowns might be hard to come by, but Dortch will have a full-time role and be a very solid PPR contributor.
10. Jayden Daniels leads the Washington Commanders to the NFC East title. You Heard Me!
My thinking: Come on, let me have this one. It’s so rare I’ve actually had legit hope going into a season. Plus, I did the Ferguson prediction in the write-up so there’s 10 legit ones. But hey, the Cowboys have contract issues and Mike McCarthy is a lame duck coach, Philly is under a lot of pressure and are we sure their success was Nick Sirianni based and not Shane Steichen/Jonathon Gannon? I’m just saying. Every year there’s a new champ in the NFC East. You never know. Real talk though, Jayden Daniels is gonna have a monster year, win Offensive Player of the Year and be a fantasy superstar.
Okay, let’s get to it. A few quick housekeeping notes:
Fantasy Football Pregame debuts this Sunday morning from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET, airing live on Peacock and the NFL on NBC YouTube page. We answer more questions than any other pregame show, so be sure to use the #FFPregame or comment on the YouTube stream (the best way to get your question answered).
And even with drafts done, the FantasyLife+ package from FantasyLife.com has start/sit tools, league sync that tells you the best trades or waiver moves to make, a waiver tool that includes how much to bid for those in leagues with FAAB, exclusive projections, utilization data, customized weekly ranks for your scoring system, DFS projections for player performance and ownership, pick ‘em builders, betting tools for the NFL and college football, plus a bunch more.
And if that wasn’t enough, my RotoPass.com bundle package includes FantasyLife+ Tier 1, a six-month subscription to Peacock and five other great premium sites.
Even if you don’t want to pay anything, check out FantasyLife.com and sign up for my free newsletter that comes out every single day.
A reminder this column is not a start/sit column, but rather about players I expect to exceed or fall short of the projections this week. Thanks, as always, to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. Here we go.
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 1
C.J. Stroud at Indianapolis
Look, I know the Texans signed Davis Mills to a new contract on Wednesday, but I don’t care what anyone says: C.J. Stroud is still the Texans quarterback you want. I don’t even care about the opinion of Matthew Berry. That guy put C.J. Stroud on his preseason Hate List, but the fact is that Stroud’s Week 1 matchup is just too good to hate. Stroud deserves some Week 1 love against a Colts team he scored 20-plus fantasy points against in both of his games facing them as a rookie. He averaged 324 passing yards in those games and threw four total touchdowns against a Colts defense that allowed the seventh-highest completion rate on deep passes in 2023. The Texans also have a top five implied team total in Week 1. Look for Stroud to get off to a great start to the season in Week 1 … prompting everyone to tell me I was stupid for putting him on my preseason Hate List, which is about season-long value and not any one individual week. Can’t wait. Stroud is QB5 for me this week.
RELATED: Matthew Berry’s positional rankings for Week 1
Jordan Love vs. Philadelphia (in Brazil)
During the 2023 season, Philadelphia allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Eagles also allowed passing touchdowns at the third-highest rate and were tied for the fifth-most receptions allowed on deep passes, which is worth noting because Jordan Love had the second-most deep attempts in 2023. Will the Eagles be better against the pass this season? Maybe. We don’t know. What we DO know is that Darius Slay is now 33 years old, James Bradberry is on IR and two rookies – Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean – will be getting heavy use right out of the gate. It’s hard to see this as anything other than a good Week 1 matchup for Love. The kind of matchup that gets you on the Love List. Or as they call it in Brazil, the “Amor Lista.” By the way, don’t forget this game is being played exclusively on Peacock (“pavoa” in Portuguese) on Friday night. On “Sexta-feira” night. Really. That’s what “Friday” is in Portuguese. I am also adding Portuguese to the Love List. It’s just an objectively more fun language. Sorry, English.
Jayden Daniels at Tampa Bay
I get the hesitation around playing a rookie quarterback in fantasy in his NFL debut, but Daniels has a very positive matchup for his first real NFL game. Last season, the Buccaneers struggled mightily against the deep ball, ranking bottom five in receptions and yards. Tampa Bay also allowed six rushing scores to quarterbacks in 2023, tied for second most. Meanwhile, new Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who was previously head coach of the Cardinals, helped Kyler Murray put up 20-plus fantasy point performances in three of Murray’s first six NFL games as a rookie. I’m truly not worried about Daniels this week. What I AM worried about? How I will react to witnessing competent quarterback play every week on my favorite team. Will I pass out? Combust? Might my head explode? I guess we’ll soon find out. (If I’m not here to write the column for Week 2, it means I combusted and/or my head exploded. Wish me luck!)
Others receiving votes: Speaking of things that make my head explode, but for bad reasons: my Commanders defense. Last season, Washington allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, most passing touchdowns, and were ranked dead-last in defense. All of which is to say that unless new head coach Dan Quinn has already completely fixed the defense (He hasn’t. Trust me. Our secondary is, ahem, a work in progress), Baker Mayfield has a great Week 1 matchup. … Most people are back in offices these days, but Jared Goff has really thrived in the work-from-home environment. Over the past two seasons, Goff has averaged 21.0 PPG at home. He debuts at home on Sunday against a Rams defense that a season ago allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. … Also with a homecoming of sorts in Week 1 is Matthew Stafford, who is returning to Detroit where he played the first 12 years of his career. Last season, the Lions ranked bottom six in both passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed, and then in the postseason they saw Stafford throw for 367 yards on them. By the way, the 51-point game total in Rams vs. Lions is the highest on the Week 1 slate.
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 1
Brock Purdy vs. New York Jets
The Jets defense allowed a league-low 12.1 PPG to quarterbacks in 2023. They also were second in pass defense (168.3 yards per game) and allowed the third-lowest passer rating. Yes, if you were a quarterback in 2023, playing against the Jets (or even for the Jets) it was pretty much a complete disaster. Considering Brock Purdy struggled this preseason, and that Brandon Aiyuk (and Trent Williams!) have only just started practicing, I don’t feel comfortable banking on any part of the 49ers passing game in Week 1. Purdy is outside my top 15 at the position.
Dak Prescott at Cleveland
Last season the Browns had the second-highest pressure rate (42.5%) to go along with having allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating. Dak Prescott was also far less productive on the road compared to at home last year – 16.0 PPG vs. 24.8 PPG. Plus, CeeDee Lamb missed most of the preseason due to a contract dispute and might not be in full game shape. With all that factoring in … I’m going to guess that Dak is not going to get a record contract offer from the Cowboys immediately after this game ends. He’s on my Week 1 Hate List.
Running Backs I Love in Week 1
James Cook vs. Arizona
Last season the Arizona Cardinals were a running back’s best friend, having allowed the most fantasy points and rushing yards to them. They also allowed the most rushes of 10-plus yards. It was simply a beautiful friendship between running backs and the Cardinals defense. Maybe the only better relationship we saw develop last season was between James Cook and Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady. After Brady took over the offense in Week 11, Cook was RB11 in PPG from then on. Over that same stretch, Cook also averaged 19.6 touches and had a 12% target share. The Bills are almost a touchdown favorite at home in this one, so yeah, I think Brady, Cook and Arizona’s run defense are all going to get along famously in Week 1. Cook is a top seven back for me this week.
Kenneth Walker III vs. Denver
The 2023 Broncos gave up a league-high 5.2 YPC last season and allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs. (Fun fact: Colorado and Arizona share a border, but it is an invisible line because it honors the run defenses of the Broncos and Cardinals. True story!) That Denver run defense should see a heavy dose of Walker in Week 1. And get this: In Walker’s 20 career games with 15-plus touches, he’s averaging 16.6 fantasy points and 97.5 scrimmage yards per game. There’s also been buzz all preseason about Walker being used more in the passing game this year and you can see by my bold prediction that I’m all in. Running, receiving … give me all of it with Walker this week against the Broncos.
Joe Mixon at Indianapolis
The Texans obviously have high hopes for Joe Mixon. After all, they signed him to a three-year, $27 million deal. But for Mixon to achieve a Love List mention before he even plays a single official snap in a Texans uniform? They probably didn’t even DREAM of that. What a day for the franchise. I can hear the celebrations in the front office from here. I think. Could be my stomach rumbling. Anyway, while the Texans prepare to induct Mixon into their Ring of Honor for this Love List recognition (and I prepare for a snack to quiet my stomach), let me tell you specifically why I’m so high on him this week. Mixon is facing a Colts defense that allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs last season, including 16 rushing touchdowns — which was tied for third-most allowed in the NFL. Meanwhile, Mixon led all backs in goal line carries in 2023 and has six consecutive seasons averaging at least 18 touches per game. He’s a top 12 RB in Week 1.
Others receiving votes: Jacksonville allowed 24 rushes of 15-plus yards last season, tied for seventh-most in the league. No doubt, the Jags want to improve on that mark this year. I also have no doubt that they are going to still give up several long rushes on Sunday. That’s because they’re facing De’Von Achane, who really only does long rushes. It’s kinda his thing. By the way, in the nine games in which Achane had 20-plus snaps last season, he had a double-digit target share in six of them. I mention that because Jacksonville also allowed the most receptions to running backs last season. … A healthy Aaron Jones, which is both a rare and beautiful thing to behold, will get a Giants team in Week 1 that allowed the third-most rushing yards to running backs in 2023. Including the playoffs, Jones averaged 19.9 PPG over his final games last season, so there’s every reason to be optimistic heading into Sunday. … Chicago gave up the most receiving yards to running backs in 2023. In Week 1 of 2024, the Bears face a back who had the eighth-highest target share (14.6%) at the position last season in Tyjae Spears. … Denver’s Jaleel McLaughlin took 16% of his rushes for 10-plus yards last season, which is a big reason why he was eighth in fantasy points per touch. McLaughlin should have a bigger role in 2024 and he’ll open the season against a Seattle defense that allowed the fourth-most rushes of 10-plus yards last season.
Get FantasyLife+ featuring Rotoworld and award-winning Fantasy, Betting and DFS tools to dominate all season. Use promo code ROTO10 at checkout to save 10%! Click here to get started.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 1
Rhamondre Stevenson at Cincinnati
The Patriots have the lowest implied team total in Week 1. (The Patriots may have the lowest implied team totals in Weeks 2-17, as well, but let’s be positive and not lock that in stone just yet. Also, it’s not fair to include their bye in Week 7 when they’ll score zero points without even trying. Yay!) In addition to lacking skill position players, the Patriots are also lacking a quality offensive line. Not ideal. PFF has the Patriots’ line ranked 28th entering the season. That means there likely won’t be a ton of holes for Rhamondre Stevenson to run through. Last season, the Bengals defense ranked top 10 in fewest receptions and receiving yards allowed to backs, so accumulating fantasy points through the air will be hard, too. I have Stevenson outside my top 25 backs in Week 1.
D’Andre Swift vs. Tennessee
D’Andre Swift is RB1 on Chicago’s depth chart, but the Bears gave 110-plus touches to both Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson last season for a reason. They like them. Maybe not as much as they like Swift at the moment, but all three will get work … and I simply don’t love the prospect of the lead back in a three-way timeshare facing a defense that last season allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Titans were also top five in fewest receptions and receiving yards allowed to backs in 2023. Maybe Swift falls into the end zone, but until we see how this backfield plays out, Swift is merely a shaky FLEX play this week.
Jerome Ford vs. Dallas
Jerome Ford managers surely see Nick Chubb starting the season on IR as good news. But I have some bad news for Jerome Ford managers: you’re still managing Jerome Ford. In 75% of Ford’s starts last season, he scored less than 15 fantasy points. And after Chubb’s injury, Ford still saw only 27% of Cleveland’s red zone rushes. Yes, Jerome Ford is Nick Chubb insurance. But he’s the kind of insurance that refuses all your claims and has a $10,000 deductible. Ford is a Hate for me in Week 1, especially against a Dallas defense coming off a season in which they allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to backs.
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 1
Mike Evans vs. Washington
Washington allowed the most yards to wide receivers last season and the second-most fantasy points to the position. Even worse, Washington allowed a league-high 20 touchdowns on deep passes. That was seven more than any other team. Seven! Washington’s pass defense was basically the equivalent of pitching to Aaron Judge on a Little League field and hoping he’d kindly agree to bunt. You know what? I’m honestly not sure if that analogy even holds … so in that way I guess it’s like Washington’s porous pass defense. Anyway, a defense that is atrocious against the deep ball is not one I’m betting on against one of the NFL’s best deep receivers in Mike Evans. Last season, Evans ranked top three in both deep targets and end zone targets.
Cooper Kupp at Detroit
During the games in which Cooper Kupp was healthy last season, he had a 27% target share. He was also top five among wide receivers in end zone targets per game. Kupp and Puka Nacua are very much a “Yes and” situation in that Rams offense. It’s not one or the other. A healthy Kupp is still going to put up numbers, and he has a very good chance to put up big numbers in Week 1 against a Detroit team that allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers last season. The Lions also allowed the fifth-most yards per reception to the slot, which is where Kupp does most of his work. He’s an easy top 15 WR in Week 1.
Malik Nabers vs. Minnesota
The Vikings’ defense struggled at the beginning of last season, and for the year, receivers who saw seven-plus targets against Minnesota averaged 18.3 PPG. However, none of that would have mattered much for the Vikings if they played the Giants last year, whose receivers were … Phil McConkey and David Tyree? I forget. Either way, the Giants went out and got themselves an actually talented receiver in the draft in Malik Nabers. In his lone preseason game, Nabers saw a 33% target share and posted 89% route participation. The Giants drafted him to use him, and he’ll get to play in his NFL debut against a defense that was used and abused by a lot of receivers a season ago.
Others receiving votes: Even if Ja’Marr Chase plays, the fact that he hasn’t been practicing means Tee Higgins is the Bengals’ WR1 in Week 1 or, at worst, their WR1A. Higgins had a 20% target share in his healthy games last season and has averaged at least 8.5 yards per target in each of his past three seasons. (Also if Chase is out, or even if he plays, fantasy managers in deeper leagues should look at Andrei Iosivas, who has won Tyler Boyd’s old job and is in for an increased workload). … Tampa Bay allowed the fourth-most yards to wide receivers last season and gave up the third-most touchdowns on deep passes. I like this matchup in Week 1 for Terry McLaurin (now with a real quarterback!), who last season averaged 16.5 PPG during the eight games in which he had a target share above 23%. And, considering the rest of Washington’s options at receiver, McLaurin’s target share might be … do percentages go higher than 100? … The Dolphins gave up the fourth-highest catch rate to the slot last season, while Jaguars slot receiver Christian Kirk has six-plus targets in 82% of his healthy games since he signed with Jacksonville in 2022, averaging 15.7 PPG in those contests. … In 2023, Jayden Reed ranked seventh in slot targets. He opens his 2024 season against an Eagles defense that allowed the most receptions and yards to the slot a season ago. The Eagles will also be utilizing two rookies as nickel corners. … Buffalo’s defense ranked bottom five last season in receptions and catch rate allowed to the slot. So, give me some Greg Dortch against the Bills in Week 1. As mentioned above, Dortch has averaged 14.6 PPG in his 10 career games with a snap rate above 70%. … Last season, Pat Freiermuth saw 42% of Pittsburgh’s end zone targets, which led all tight ends. Considering that Pittsburgh used the offseason to make its receiving corps worse, Freiermuth’s role should only increase – especially when you consider that Arthur Smith’s Falcons last season led the league in TE target share. That same Falcons team that Freiermuth faces this week was bad against tight ends, ranking bottom six in fantasy points, receptions and yards allowed to the position. … Last season the Panthers allowed a league-high 25 rushing scores, while Taysom Hill handled 31% of the Saints’ red zone rushes and 26% of their goal-line rushes. … Cincinnati allowed the most receptions to tight ends last season and the second-most yards to the position. That leads to a positive matchup for New England’s Hunter Henry, whose 38% target share in 2023 on team end zone targets was second only to Freiermuth at the position. ... You are going to be shocked (and then reluctantly head to the waiver wire) when you see how much Zach Ertz gets used in this Washington offense.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 1
Brandon Aiyuk vs. New York Jets
Brandon Aiyuk missed all of camp and the preseason due to a contract dispute. So it’s hard to know what kind of shape he’s in or if he’s back in rhythm with Brock Purdy and the rest of the offense just yet. And really, even if he IS in great shape and in perfect rhythm, I’m not sure it will matter much against this Jets defense. Last season the Jets faced a lot of in-shape receivers and in-sync offenses and still allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and the fewest receptions and yards on deep passes. Only five WRs had receiving touchdowns against the Jets last season. Look for Aiyuk to have a weak one in Week 1. You Heard Me! No apologies in 2024. You get the jokes you get.
DeAndre Hopkins at Chicago
DeAndre Hopkins, D’Andre Swift, Brock Pur’D … I guess my Week 1 Hate List has a definite theme. But part of the reason I’m down on Hopkins this week is because of the D he’s facing. Last season, Chicago allowed the ninth-fewest yards to wide receivers and Hopkins could see coverage from Pro Bowl cornerback Jaylon Johnson. That is … assuming Hopkins plays. Hopkins missed all of the preseason recovering from a knee injury, so I’m definitely keeping him out of lineups in Week 1.
Jerry Jeudy vs. Dallas
Jerry Jeudy didn’t play in any preseason games and he missed parts of camp with a knee injury, so it’s hard to feel confident in his connection with Deshaun Watson. He also has a tough matchup against a Dallas team that a season ago allowed the fifth-fewest receptions to wide receivers. And then there’s the fact that this game has the third-lowest game total on the Week 1 slate. Not a lot to like here. I’m avoiding Jerry Jeudy like it’s jury duty. (I told you. YOU GET THE JOKES YOU GET!)
Dallas Goedert vs. Green Bay
Things are not trending in a positive direction for Dallas Goedert managers. Last season, Goedert’s 42 receiving yards per game were his fewest since 2019. Then the Eagles went out and acquired Jahan Dotson – their best WR3 in ages – who is likely to take some of Goedert’s target share away. Oh, and Goedert missed time in camp with an injury to his oblique. I don’t mean to be obtuse, but that all seems … bad? As does the fact that in Week 1, Goedert faces a Green Bay defense that a season ago allowed the fifth-lowest catch rate to tight ends. Goedert is outside my top 12 TEs in Week 1.
