This week was another huge punch to the gut. Things went so well through the week’s first five or six days and then everything came crashing down with the pitching on Sunday. We were having such a solid week across the board – despite being light on wins again – but Sunday’s disasters completely took the wind out of my sails once again.
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Hitting Review
It’s hard to really complain about the offense this week, even though we came up a bit light in speed. We got to 313 at-bats on the week and did so while hitting most of our targets and crushing a few of them.
We still didn’t get much from the catcher position, which is a trend that I’m not loving. It’s nice to have Willson Contreras back in the fold, but aside from three runs scored from him and his younger brother, they didn’t provide much juice this week.
Paul Goldschmidt homered and stole a base, but didn’t contribute much aside from that. He did have much better swings overall though – even though the results didn’t show it. I think he’s going to have a big Week 15.
Luis Rengifo is an absolute stud. There’s not much else I can say about the guy. He had 27 at-bats on the week and hit a blistering .407 with a pair of homers, eight runs scored, four RBI and a stolen base. What an absolute monster.
Speaking of monsters, what a week for Jose Ramirez once again. Our team leader hit .345 with seven runs scored, four homers, nine RBI and a stolen base. Given all of the landmines that were available in the first two rounds of the draft, we struck gold with our first hitter selected.
Ezequiel Tovar sat the first half of the week for us since he only had two games on the docket and didn’t do a whole lot over the weekend. He’s been terrific all year though, so he gets a pass. He also has a full week at Coors Field on tap for Week 15.
Jurickson Profar homered and drove in seven runs, which is just the type of production that we’ve come to expect from him this season. He remains a fixture in our lineup. Tyler O’Neill homered and scored three runs, but only got 15 at-bats total on the week and hit .133. Randy Arozarena had a decent average and swatted a solo homer but didn’t do much else. Jo Adell was useless in the half-week that we used him, then finally homered in his final at-bat on Sunday on our bench.
Jarren Duran continues to excel, and though he didn’t utilize his wheels this week, he did sock a pair of solo homers and score four runs. Max Kepler had a pretty empty weekend in our lineup with a decent average and a couple runs scored.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa hit .417 over 24 at-bats on the week and scored a team-leading 10 runs. He also chipped in a homer and two RBI. He has been moved up to the second spot in the Jays’ lineup and has been thriving there. Justin Turner had another solid week at our CI spot, hitting .333 with three runs scored and four RBI. We’ll take that every time.
David Fry wound up playing the entire week at utility for us, and though he hit .300 it was extremely empty with just one RBI and nothing else. Given that our biggest deficit on offense is in RBI though, and Fry hits fifth in a strong lineup when he plays, he’ll continue to find opportunities.
So taking a look at our targets for the week, we crushed it in runs scored once again coming in at +12. That now gives us an insane cushion of +34 on the season in the category. To put that into perspective, that ranks 16th out of 855 teams in the competition.
We hit our target in home runs once again at +1.6, though we’re still 12 homers behind the number overall on the season. Just need to keep chipping away there. We just missed our RBI goal, coming in at -1. On the season the deficit there is -35 and should still be our focus on offense.
After crushing our stolen base goals the past few weeks, we came in way short at -4.7 this week. That leaves us with a cushion of just +1 in the category going forward.
What was really nice this week was to see the .278 average over a full complement of at-bats. We’re still behind the target number overall, but it’s in our sights now.
Pitching Review
Eventually variance has to swing the other way in terms of wins, right? Unfortunately, this wasn’t the week for it.
We went into the week with three pitchers lined up to start twice, and we rolled out an extra starter instead of Josh Hader which gave us a total of 10 starts for the week. Running at the low end of expectations you’d expect three wins given that workload.
Two of those three doubles took the hill on Monday night. James Paxton delivered his third straight strong start for us, hurling five shutout innings with a 1.20 WHIP and six strikeouts. The problem is that the Dodgers’ vaunted offense couldn’t scratch out a single run of support for him in their first six innings. Eventually they scored in the seventh and went on to win 3-0, but that was too late to earn Paxton a well-deserved victory.
Luis Medina wasn’t as good in his first start of the week, giving up three earned runs on six walks+hits in just three innings of work. He did contribute four strikeouts, but that didn’t save the disastrous outing.
We also notched our first save of the week on Monday night as Trevor Megill worked another scoreless frame. That guy has been absolute money for us since the moment we picked him up for $14 in FAAB.
Our last double, Kyle Hendricks, took the mound on Tuesday night. He delivered another strong start, giving up just two runs on six walks+hits over seven innings against the Giants, chipping in four strikeouts for good measure. It wasn’t enough to earn a victory though.
Heading into Wednesday with zero wins on the week wasn’t ideal, but we had three starters set to take the hill and I tried to remain upbeat and optimistic. Ryan Pepiot pitched in the first game of the day and pitched a whale of a ballgame. He allowed just one run on three walks+hits over 5 1/3 innings while racking up eight strikeouts. He entered the sixth inning with a 1-0 lead, then exited after issuing a one-out walk. Three batters later, there was a run charged to his ledger and the Rays’ lead – and Pepiot’s shot at a win – were gone.
Not to worry though, as the universe tried to right itself. Megill took the mound for the Brewers in the ninth inning on Wednesday afternoon, working a scoreless top half of the inning. The Brewers then put runners at the corners with only one out in the home half of the frame, needing just to push that run across for Megill to vulture a win. Unfortunately, neither William Contreras or Willy Adames could get the job done. The Brewers walked it off the following inning instead.
Kutter Crawford started out his night well, with a pair of strikeouts over 1 1/3 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays. There was optimism too with Yariel Rodriguez on the hill for the Jays that the Red Sox’ offense would score some runs and give him a nice shot at a win. Then the rains came and washed that game out, costing us innings, strikeouts and a shot at a victory. Fun times.
Erick Fedde had a tough task having to take on the Dodgers on Wednesday night, and it was all downhill after a leadoff homer from Shohei Ohtani. He never had a shot at a win in that one as the White Sox didn’t score for him, but he salvaged his night somewhat – giving up four runs on just six walks+hits over six innings with five punchouts.
Finally on Thursday night, we got off the schneid. Staff ace Corbin Burnes came to the rescue, allowing just one run with a 1.29 WHIP over seven innings while striking out five in a victory over the Rangers.
It took until Friday night to generate another save opportunity, but once again it was Megill coming through with flying colors, working a perfect ninth inning to preserve a two-run advantage there. He has now tallied 17 saves on the year.
Through Friday we had really done some heavy lifting despite the lack of wins, with an ERA in the low 2.00’s and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Just needed to land some wins out of our three starts on Sunday.
Or not. Instead, we decided to blow up all of the progress that we had made in our ratios over the last few weeks. Kyle Hendricks was an absolute disaster in his second start of the week. He cruised through the first three innings unscathed, then served up seven runs to the Brewers in the fourth inning.
If that wasn’t bad enough though, we finally got the bad version of James Paxton. It took four starts for it to come out, but woof. He gave up nine runs on 12 hits and a pair of walks over four innings against the Giants to completely torpedo both of our ratios and cost us seven league points in one day. Yikes.
Medina was actually good in the second half of his double, allowing just one run on seven walks+hits over six innings with five strikeouts, but he too was denied a victory.
Overall, you add it all up and it looks like red across the board. We missed all five of our pitching targets on the week – most of them badly – and are red in everything on the season as well.
The strikeout target we finished at -5.3 for the week and are now 18 behind the number on the season. That’s not an easy feat when we have been streaming as many double starts as we can find. You’d think that would help the cause in wins also, but it’s an absolute nightmare at this point. We were -2.9 on the week again and are now 15 wins behind the number on the season. Six and seven win weeks aren’t even going to help us climb out of this mess anymore.
Megill picked up two saves on the week, but we got zero from Diaz and left one from Hader on the bench to finish -1.3 on the week. Again, we have rolled out three closers for most of the season and are still -2 in saves overall on the year. Not ideal.
We had made tremendous strides in both ratio categories this week before Sunday’s disastrous outings. It’s going to take a long time to get them back to where they were.
FAAB Plan
FAAB this week presents somewhat of an interesting challenge for me. While I’m always cognizant of what’s going on and update things throughout the week, most of the work that I normally do on FAAB is reserved for Sunday afternoon/evening leading up to the deadline at 10PM. The problem with that this week, is that the wife and I are taking our two oldest sons to their first concert on Sunday night. The show starts at 7 PM and is really going to impede my ability to stay on top of any last minute information and tinker with bids as the deadline approaches.
Let’s try to start where we always do though, looking at potential drops. Regardless of how he performs in Sunday’s start, Luis Medina looks like an easy drop for us on the pitching side. Kyle Hendricks isn’t as clear-cut. If he pitches well in his second start on Sunday, he could wind up being a hold – at least for a couple of weeks. If we’re inserting Hader back into the lineup next week, then we only need to pick up one pitcher to start next week – assuming that we’re fine rolling out everyone else that we currently have.
On the hitting side, it’s fair to say that a mistake has been made on Tyler Black. I got excited last week when he started four straight games after being called up by the Brewers, but he hasn’t started another game since for the Brewers and didn’t take a single at-bat this week until he pinch-hit in the ninth inning on Saturday. The problem is that the Brewers get four games at Coors Field to begin next week, with three of those coming against weak RHP. He’s probably a drop, unless we get some sort of word from Pat Murphy on how he intends to use Black next week.
There are also a couple of outfielders on the bench that I’m considering trying to upgrade. Jo Adell is mired in a major slump at the moment and can’t really be used right now. He still has that dazzling blend of power and speed, but the batting average is becoming a real concern and he’s not providing anything at the moment. The other is Jake Fraley. He only plays against RHP (most of the time) and despite the fact that he hits in the middle of the Reds’ lineup when he does play he somehow only has one homer and nine RBI on the season. That’s pitiful. He has stolen 11 bases and hit for a nice average, which helps, but is it enough? Both of them are on the fringe for me depending on what’s available as a potential upgrade.
As far as what’s out there, there’s nothing too exciting this week. If we’re looking for potential two-steps on the pitching side we’d be fishing in a pool that contains Hayden Wesneski (vs. Phillies, at Angels), Carlos Carrasco (vs. White Sox, vs. Giants), Michael Mercado (at Cubs, at Braves) and Vallente Bellozo (vs. Red Sox, vs. White Sox). Those are the most appealing options of the bunch. I actually kind of like Carrasco, have always had a soft spot for him, and in terms of wins he’s probably the most likely of the bunch to get one.
As far as single starts or potential stashes go, Davis Daniel joined the Angels’ rotation and threw a gem against the lowly Tigers. He gets the Athletics this week and then potentially two starts the following week. Old friend Colin Rea continues to pitch well. He gets the Rockies at Coors next week and then lines up for a nice double (vs. Pirates and vs. Nationals) in the final period of the first half). David Festa is intriguing, he gets the Tigers this week and would double the following week, but he probably falls outside of our budget. If we’re looking at stashes, it’s Clarke Schmidt or Eduardo Rodriguez.
On the hitting side, Noelvi Marte is the clear prize available, but isn’t someone that we have enough FAAB to fight for. Andrew McCutchen has been barreling up the ball with regularity, but continues to get ignored for fantasy purposes. He could make for a nice addition. Same with his teammate, Rowdy Tellez, who has been killing it for the past month or so. Leody Taveras could add some speed, Luis Matos is back with the Giants and crushed a pair of homers this week, Jeff McNeil’s bat has started to show signs of life again. If we’re looking at stashes on offense, maybe Jordan Walker or Parker Meadows make some sense.
Still trying to get a sense of how many drops we’re going to have, probably won’t have it settled until just before the deadline while maneuvering things around on my phone in the seats at Little Caesars Arena.
FAAB Review
Alright, we’re back from the AJR concert and have finally cooled down about the season-destroying blowups from Hendricks and Paxton on Sunday afternoon. Let’s take a look at the FAAB winners and see what (if anything) we were able to accomplish.
As expected, we couldn’t get anywhere close on Noelvi Marte and it turns out that the rich get richer as the top team in the league snagged him for $128 ($121). That stings.
David Festa was the next name up at $33 ($28). He’s another player we had interest in, but nowhere close on price. Same can be said for Leody Taveras at $24 ($15).
We had conditionals in on Hector Neris despite the fact that we didn’t really need saves, but $16 ($12) is a lower price than I expected him to go for.
The next three players I didn’t really have much interest in this week, so I don’t feel like I missed much on Richie Palacios ($15 to $3), Jhonkensy Noel ($13 to $11) or Kody Clemens ($11 to $2).
Davis Daniel was relatively high up on my pitching wishlist, but I couldn’t get to $11 ($8). Albert Suarez was further down the pitching bid lists, but still not in play for us at $11 ($5). Edward Cabrera ($11 unopposed) was not on my radar at all.
Daniel Schneemann is a player I’ve looked at a few times the last couple of weeks but couldn’t pull the trigger on; he went elsewhere for $10 ($7). Andrew McCutchen is a player that I had serious interest in this week, and it hurts to be the runner-up on that one ($7 to $4).
We went up to $6 on Hayden Wesneski and missed out by a dollar to a pair of $7 bids. We also had serious interest in Colin Rea and were the runners-up there ($7 to $3). Same for Luis Matos at $7 ($4). Save your FAAB early in the season people, as you can see the effects we’re experiencing these past few weeks.
The most brutal blow came as we watched our top pitching target, Carlos Carrasco, go to Phil Dussault for $7 ($6). That one seriously stings. We’re honestly so far down the list now I have no idea what we’re going to get, but know that it’ll probably be unopposed and an overpay on our end. Wonderful.
Well, I was wrong on the unopposed part at least, as we snag our first player, Michael Mercado for $6 ($1). Medina was the drop on that one. It’s frustrating though, as had we gotten Carrasco or Wesneski, we also would have landed Mercado but at a much lower price on another bid list.
We lost out on Gavin Sheets with another runner-up bid at $5 ($3). We added a second terribly sketchy double in Valente Bellozo for $3 ($1) with Hendricks as the drop. Our top hitting add winds up being Trent Grisham for $2 unopposed with Tyler Black as the drop.
Additionally, we picked up Rowdy Tellez for $1 while kicking Jo Adell to the curb. Had things gone our way on either of the close bids on Wesneski or Carrasco, then we also would have landed a third pitcher (still Mercado and Bellozo but both at lower prices) with Paxton as the drop. Instead, we now may have to roll him out against the Brewers next week. We’ll see.
Potential interesting drops from around the league? Cal Quantrill, Ty France, Dylan Moore, Jorge Mateo, Brandon Drury. Nothing super exciting.
A disappointing and frustrating end to a disappointing and frustrating week.
Looking Ahead
Let’s keep it on the pitching side here since that seems to be the bane of my existence.
Starts are king and we need them to fight the uphill battle in wins. We’re so far behind in the category there’s not much else we can do at this point. Last week we had 10 starts and came away with one victory when the expectations were for at least three.
With the two FAAB doubles that we picked up (Mercado and Bellozo), we have four doubles lined up for this week as Crawford and Fedde also share that honor. Corbin Burnes starts every week for us and is an automatic. That’s usually the case for Ryan Pepiot as well, and a matchup against the Royals in Kansas City isn’t going to scare us away.
That means the final spot decision comes down to using Paxton against at home against Bryse Wilson and the Brewers, or to simply play all three closers. Four times this season Paxton has given up four earned runs or more, including Sunday’s abomination. All four of those starts were on the road. After each of his first three disasters, he was excellent his next time out, allowing a total of one run over 14 2/3 innings combined. If the Dodgers trust him enough to throw him out there, then he’s still a decent bet to earn a win at home.
That means we sit a closer. Hader and Megill each get seven-game weeks while Diaz gets six. Three of those are against the Tigers over the weekend though and surely he’ll get a save or two there. I could really go either way on this one. We could also opt to sit Bellozo and play Diaz and Paxton, but that would bring us back down to nine starts on the week, plus Bellozo takes on Kutter Crawford in Monday’s start which adds some win equity for us.
I’m really torn on that one. We’ll see.
To the offense, both Contreras brothers, Goldschmidt, Rengifo, Tovar, Ramirez, IKF and Turner are set in the infield – though Rengifo or IKF could move to the outfield if we wanted to play other infield options. O’Neill, Duran, Arozarena and Profar are set in the outfield, presuming they’re all in their respective lineups on Tuesday.
That leaves one outfield spot and one utility spot. Given the flexibility of Rengifo and IKF, that means any two of the following options:
Kepler (three vs. Tigers, one LHP, so likely plays two)
Fry (three vs. White Sox, all RHP, probably plays two)
Tellez (three vs. Cardinals, all RHP, likely plays three)
Miguel Rojas (three vs. D’Backs, two RHP, probably plays three)
Fraley (three at Yankees, two RHP, probably plays two)
Grisham (three vs. Reds, one LHP, likely plays two)
If we’re focused exclusively on who will play the most, it’s probably Tellez and Rojas. If we’re looking at recent productivity, it’s probably still Tellez for one of those spots. Needing RBI, Fry could win out for that second spot. A lot will depend on how lineups shake out on Tuesday.
Where we Stand
Last week we climbed up to 101.5 points in the league standings. That left us in third place, four points behind Gill in second and 20.5 behind Benger at the top. Prior to Sunday’s debacle, we had been hovering between 103 and 106 league points on the week and were positioned to make a serious run. Instead, we limped to the finish line for Week 14 at 97 league points. That puts us 22.5 behind Benger at the top, 15 behind Gill for second and 10 ahead of fourth place.
We also finished last week in 95th place out of 855 teams in the overall standings and in 20th place in the CLQ standings. Prior to the Sunday debacle, we had been up to 73rd in the overall standings and 16th in the CLQ. Instead, we finished the week at 117th place in the overall and 24th in the CLQ.
I know that we have had bad days and bad weeks like this in the past and clawed our way back. I know that it’s possible to do it again. I had just been having such good feelings throughout this week and had so much optimism that we could score a win or two from Sunday’s starts and really have our season start to take off. Instead, we’re right back to the grind with the overall and the top spot in our league looking like a pipe dream once more.
As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my decision making, the emotional roller-coaster, etc. If you’d like more insights into the CLQ or why those other two teams are struggling to keep us going there, let me know. Those that have reached out so far, I can’t tell you how much it’s been appreciated. This has probably been my favorite column to write in the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.