The frustration continued in Week 15. A pair of key injuries, and a trip to the paternity list, made things very difficult for the offense while the patented Sunday blowups that we’ve started to expect sunk the pitching ratios once again. Fortunately, a Herculean effort from Kutter Crawford on Sunday night salvaged the week and keeps our hopes high heading into the final week before the All-Star break.
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Hitting Review
The week started out on a bit of a sour note on Monday. There were only three games on the schedule for the first half of the week – including one afternoon game – so after checking and making sure that Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner were in the Jays’ lineup, I didn’t think I had much else to do there. I found out just before the first pitch that IKF was scratched from the lineup with a knee issue. Wonderful. He landed on the injured list the following day, forcing us to take a zero from our MI spot for the week, even though we had Miguel Rojas on the bench who could have subbed in.
The following day, the Jays placed Turner on the paternity list, causing him to miss the final three games of the first half of the week. Terrific.
On Wednesday, Luis Rengifo left his game against the Athletics with a wrist injury. He was held out of the team’s lineup on Thursday, but there was hope after X-rays came back negative for any fractures. That hope was dashed on Friday when he too landed on the 10-day injured list with inflammation in his right wrist.
Both Rengifo and IKF carry supreme positional eligibility. They’re both eligible at 2B/SS/3B/OF, which basically allows us coverage for an injury at any position, as we can move those two guys around as needed to cover anywhere. Missing one of them limits our flexibility. Losing both in the same week absolutely kills it. We only had one reserve MI (Rojas) to sub in for IKF for the weekend, meaning that we were forced to eat another zero with Rengifo in there at 2B for the second half of the week.
Combine those two full periods of zeros with the three games we missed from Turner’s paternity leave, and you can understand why our at-bat total came in a bit light this week. We had another issue heading into Friday as Turner had not returned from his leave yet, and there was no certainty that he was going to be back for Saturday’s game either. Our alternative to playing Turner was Rowdy Tellez – who was scheduled to face two southpaws over the weekend, which meant that we’d probably only get one start from him.
That dice roll actually worked out for us, as Tellez crushed it in his one start – crushing a pair of home runs (including a grand slam and driving in five). In fact, Tellez was one of our top overall performers on the week, hitting .412 (7-for-17) with three homers, six RBI and five runs scored. Not bad for a $1 FAAB addition from last week.
We finally got back to receiving elite production from the catcher position this week, as Willson Contreras led the charge for our entire offense. The elder Contreras hit .320 (8-for-25) with three homers, eight RBI, four runs scored and a stolen base. Yowza. Baby brother didn’t disappoint either, hitting .375 with a solo homer and four runs scored.
Paul Goldschmidt didn’t leave the yard – or even drive in a single run during the week – but he did manage to score four times and swipe a pair of bases, so at least he found a way to contribute. Rengifo stole a base and drove in a run in his eight at-bats on the week before landing on the injured list.
Ezequiel Tovar has been fantastic for us for most of the season, so I don’t want to rag on him too badly, but this was perhaps the worst single week that I’ve seen from any player ever. Set up for a seven-game week against weak pitching – all at Coors Field – Tovar delivered a complete zero. He went 0-for-24 with 11 strikeouts. He had no runs scored, no RBI, no stolen bases, just a massive drain on our batting average.
Jose Ramirez had a rare down week, hitting just .160 (4-for-25) with no homers or RBI. He still scored three runs and stole a base at least. Randy Arozarena stole a base and hit for a decent average (.261), but the counting stats were extremely limited.
Max Kepler worked his way into the lineup over the weekend and hit a sizzling .545 (6-for-11) with a couple of runs scored and two RBI. We’ll certainly take that. David Fry played in that spot in the first half of the week and contributed a run and an RBI, though he went hitless in six at-bats.
Tyler O’Neill had a solid week, hitting .333 (7-for-21) with five runs scored, two RBI and a pair of stolen bases. Jurickson Profar continues to defy all expectations, hitting .333 (7-for-21) with three homers, four RBI, five runs scored and a stolen base.
Jarren Duran only had four hits on the week (.138) but still managed to homer and steal a base. Trent Grisham got some work in over the weekend, scoring a pair of runs and collecting an RBI. We’re thankful for his contribution.
It’s actually pretty impressive that despite all of the injuries and zeroes that we had to take on offense this week that we were still able to grind out 288 at-bats.
Looking at our weekly targets, we came up just short in both runs (-0.2) and home runs (-0.4) while missing badly yet again in RBI (-11.3). We crushed our stolen base target (+3.3) and came up just shy in batting average (-0.005).
Checking our season-long targets, we’re still dealing with a massive cushion in runs scored (+31) and we now have a surplus in stolen bases as well (+4). We’re lagging behind in the power department with homers (-13) and especially RBI (-51) coming up on the short side. We’re close, but just behind the pace overall in batting average (-0.004).
That tells me that we need to look in certain spots to add power in favor of speed. That’s one of the reasons that I think Jake Fraley should be expendable from this roster. More on that below.
Pitching Review
Once again we started the week hopeful and with plenty of optimism with 11 starts on tap – hoping that we could at least squeak out four victories and stop the slide in the category.
We didn’t have any starters going on Monday’s three-game slate, but we managed to add a save to the ledger on Monday as Josh Hader served up a solo homer in the ninth inning against the Blue Jays, but escaped the inning with the lead intact.
On Tuesday night we had both of our FAAB doubles (Valente Bellozo and Michael Mercado) taking the hill, as well as Kutter Crawford who was conveniently squaring off against Bellozo which increased our win equity in that game. We were supposed to have a fourth double starter, but the White Sox shifted their rotation around which moved Erick Fedde back from Tuesday to Wednesday and cost him his two-start week.
Bellozo wasn’t great, giving up five runs with a 1.60 WHIP over five innings against the Red Sox, but he did chip in eight strikeouts. His giving up five runs also helped the cause for Crawford, who allowed just one run on three walks+hits in his six frames, adding seven strikeouts and our first victory of the week.
Mercado followed with a gem of his own in his first MLB start, allowing just one run with a 0.80 WHIP and four strikeouts over five innings to pick up a victory as well. It’s always nice to surpass last week’s win total on the first day of the new week.
We tacked on another couple of saves on Tuesday as Alexis Diaz worked a scoreless ninth inning to protect a one-run lead against the Yankees and Trevor Megill closed out the Rockies at Coors Field.
On Wednesday Fedde finally took the hill, and it turned out to be worth the wait. He surrendered just one run on six walks+hits over six innings against the Guardians, snagging our third victory of the week. Would’ve liked more than three strikeouts, but we’ll absolutely take it.
We also found out on Wednesday that we lost another start on the week as the Marlins optioned Bellozo to Triple-A Jacksonville after his loss to the Red Sox on Tuesday. Disappointing, but it’s part of the game, especially when trusting sketchy doubles.
Diaz came on and closed out the Yankees again on Wednesday, giving us our fourth save of the week already.
Our final single start on the week took the hill on Thursday as Corbin Burnes battled the Mariners. He pitched well – allowing two runs with a 0.83 WHIP and six strikeouts over his six innings – but was denied a victory.
We picked up our fifth save of the week though on Thursday as Josh Hader worked a scoreless ninth inning to shut down the Blue Jays. Our time of using three closers is seemingly coming to an end soon, so it’s nice to pile up in the category while we still can.
Hader then locked down our sixth save of the week on Friday night, though it wasn’t the smoothest of outings. He came on with a five-run lead with the bases loaded and two outs in the ninth inning and served up a grand slam to Carlos Correa before retiring the next batter to end it.
Unfortunately, our strong ratio week was once again spoiled by an absolute disaster of an outing on Sunday. This time, it was Mercado inflicting the pain. He gave up five runs on eight walks+hits in just 1 2/3 innings of work against the Braves. That’s just not something that can be easily erased and is the price that we’re paying in our quest to make up ground in wins. I can’t express enough how unbelievably frustrating it is to have it all come crashing down on Sunday yet again.
Our relievers contributed to the pain on Sunday as well, as Diaz allowed three baserunners in his inning of work (plus three unearned runs) while Hader served up a walk-off homer to the only batter that he faced (Christian Vazquez of all people).
Then on Sunday night, instead of joining the blow-up brigade, Crawford went out and absolutely shoved in a matchup against the Yankees in New York. The right-hander fired seven innings of scoreless baseball, allowing just four hits and no walks while striking out four. He needed just 68 pitches to get through those seven innings, but the Red Sox entrusted the final two innings to their bullpen and they did their job to get Crawford the victory. It didn’t erase the ratio damage from earlier in the day completely, but man was it a huge much-needed performance.
Overall on the week we came up woefully short in strikeouts (-12.4). We missed both of our ratio targets (thanks Mercado), but thanks to Crawford’s surge at the end they didn’t miss by much. We hit our target in wins (+0.1) but didn’t make up any ground there. We also crushed our target in saves (+2.8).
Looking at our season-long targets, the only spot that we have a cushion is in saves, and it’s minimal (+1). We’re now a whopping 15 wins behind the pace on the season and have built up a decent deficit in strikeouts as well (-32). The strikeouts I’m not worried about, we can make those up. The wins continue to elude me. We still have significant work to do on our ratios to get back in the game, but both of them actually improved this week, so it’s a small step in the right direction.
FAAB Plan
I hate approaching FAAB each week through the lens of frustration, but that’s where we’re at again on Sunday after Mercado’s debacle tanked our ratios and gave back all of the standings gains that we had carved out all week yet again. Sigh.
Looking over the roster at easy drop candidates, it’s clear that Bellozo is an easy drop. Mercado draws a single against the Athletics next week and he’ll probably have a decent shot at a win there (if he sticks around to make the start), but we can’t trust him after Sunday’s miserable outing.
On the hitting side we absolutely have to pick up a middle infielder that we can play next week, since both of our super utility options (Rengifo and Kiner-Falefa) are trapped on the injured list. Only adding one MI means we have to roll Rojas out for the week as well with no cover at the position, so perhaps we should consider a second?
Grisham was nice coverage for this past week, but he’s more of a luxury item than anything else and is considered expendable. The other potential drop that I’m looking at is Jake Fraley. He’s currently away from the Reds on the family emergency medical list and I’m getting sick of waiting around for him to finally perform. He’s a tough play most periods as he sits against all left-handed pitching and somehow through 213 plate appearances on the season he has just one homer and 12 RBI. The 12 stolen bases are nice and he’s hitting for a solid average, but I think we need the spot for other things.
We still need wins, in the absolute worst way, so adding a two-start option via FAAB makes a lot of sense. The problem once again, is that the options out there aren’t great. We’re looking at Martin Perez (at Brewers, at White Sox), Andre Pallante (vs. Royals, vs. Cubs), Cal Quantrill (at Reds, at Mets) and Kenta Maeda (vs. Guardians, vs. Dodgers) as somehow the best of an unsettling bunch.
We could simply forgo picking up a two-start option for next week and roll out the seven healthy starting pitchers that we have (after dropping Bellozo and Pallante). It’s an option, but that would leave us with just eight starts next week and likely put us further behind in the wins category.
The other thing that I’m considering on the pitching front is potentially stashing some of the injured arms that are working their way back. Clarke Schmidt, Eduardo Rodriguez, Walker Buehler and Alex Cobb all fit the bill. Given our limited FAAB budget, this could be a way to potentially add some impact arms to our pitching staff.
Looking at the middle infield options, the clear standout is Brooks Lee, the Twins’ top prospect who is filling in for the injured Royce Lewis. He has hit the ground running this week and looks like he would be a tremendous addition to our offense. The problem is that he’ll likely go for a much higher price than we can justify. We’ll have a decent bid in, but it likely won’t be enough. Behind him, we’re looking at the likes of Xavier Edwards, Lenyn Sosa, Jose Iglesias, Brandon Drury, Chris Taylor, Enmanuel Valdez, Miguel Vargas, Geraldo Perdomo and Jeff McNeil. Not exactly Murderer’s Row.
The top overall target on the week is Nationals’ outfielder James Wood who has already flashed his power and speed in his first week with the big-league club and has already established himself as the third hitter in the Nationals’ lineup. Once again, he should go for 200+ which prices us out, but I’ll make a serious bid there in the hopes that the rest of the league is somehow sleeping on him.
Behind Wood, the top target is Parker Meadows who rejoined the Tigers this week after spending two months fixing his swing at Triple-A Toledo. He has already homered and swiped a base in the three games that he’s been back with the team and looks like he could be an impact addition in the second half. We’ll make a strong bid there as well. At least that was the plan before Meadows left Sunday’s game in the eighth inning with a right hamstring injury. The bid will now be tempered down.
After Meadows, it’s more of the regular weekly retreads that we have seen on the list throughout the season. Wenceel Perez, Anthony Rendon, Trevor Larnach, Ty France and some of those middle infield options from above will all be mixed in on our bid lists.
There’s also some thought that a few of the MI options could be an upgrade to what Rojas is providing, so there could be an additional bid list where we try to grab another one of those options while dropping Rojas. There hasn’t been much word on IKF since he went on the IL, but it’s possible he’ll return at some point during the second half of next week, which would be a big help.
Alright, last minute look over at the bids before the deadline, here’s my projection on what we end up with: Anthony Rendon ($4), Xavier Edwards ($3), Walker Buehler ($3), Clarke Schmidt ($3), Chris Taylor ($3). Five players for a total of $16 with Bellozo, Mercado, Rojas, Fraley and Grisham as the drops. Those results would give us a couple of MI options that we need for next week, a former elite infielder due back on Monday who is going to bat leadoff and a couple of SP stashes to potentially bolster our rotation in the second half instead of the constant streaming garbage that we’ve been dealing with. If it winds up looking something similar to this, I’ll take it.
FAAB Review
Alright, moment of truth. As anticipated, James Wood pulled in the highest bid of the week at $399 ($315). We had a serious bid in (in the $140 range) but obviously couldn’t bid more than we had. I’m pleased to see that it wasn’t one of the teams above me in the standings that secured his services.
After Wood, the next highest bid was Brooks Lee at $65 ($28). We were very close to – or may have actually been – the runner-up bid on this one. Same as the Wood bid above though, I went as high as I could conceivably go on this type of player and am just thankful he didn’t go to a team above me in the standings.
Gabriel Moreno pulled in a bid of $53 ($24) which makes sense as catchers of that caliber aren’t usually available. Given our situation with two elite catchers (and Fry to boot) we aren’t looking at the catcher position at all.
Ty France was the fourth highest bid of the week at $24 ($2). He was down on our list of conditionals, but we were never getting that high. Connor Joe went for $20 ($1) and wasn’t someone we were considering this week. The same can be said for Juan Yepez at $19 ($8), Jo Adell at $17 ($9) and Jack Suwinski at $16 ($13).
We did have interest in Wenceel Perez, and thought there was a chance he would slip through, but he ended up going for $12 ($8) instead. We weren’t in on the bidding for Yerry Rodriguez ($11 unopposed) or DJ Herz ($9 to $7). We had some interest in Miguel Vargas ($8 to $1) and Martin Perez ($8 to $3) but didn’t get high enough for either.
Several others off the board before it finally gets to us: Adam Duvall ($7 to $4), Jeff McNeil ($7 to $1), Kyle Freeland ($6 unopposed), Matt McLain ($6 unopposed), Brandon Drury ($6 to $3), Alex Cobb ($6 to $3), Alek Thomas ($4 to $3), Andre Pallante ($4 to $3), Trevor Larnach ($4 to $2) and Jason Adam ($4 unopposed).
Finally, 24 players deep into the list, we land our first win on Anthony Rendon at $4 (unopposed). It’s a player that we predicted we would win and one who could be a sneaky addition for three weeks before he inevitably ends up back on the injured list. Grisham was the drop on that one.
We also added Xavier Edwards ($3 to $1), Walker Buehler ($3 to $1), Chris Taylor ($3 to $1) and Clarke Schmidt ($3 to $1), giving us the full sweep on the five players above that we thought we would end up with. Wow. It’s nice to know that I at least had a good read on the market this week. Fraley, Bellozo, Rojas and Mercado were the drops on those four.
Glancing around the league at interesting potential drops, here’s what looks to be of potential interest to me: Tyler Soderstrom, Tyrone Taylor, Kerry Carpenter and Jake McCarthy.
Looking Ahead
Alright, we’re going to start on the pitching side this week as there are no decisions to make. With us grabbing a couple of stashes (Buehler and Schmidt) to see what happens over the next week and then the All-Star break, we only have nine healthy arms that we can throw this week (assuming that Verlander isn’t ready to return).
That means we’re trotting out all three closers again along with Pepiot as our lone double starter (vs. Yankees, vs. Guardians). They’ll go with singles from Burnes (vs. Cubs), Crawford (vs. Royals), Fedde (vs. Twins), Shane Baz (vs. Yankees) and James Paxton (at Tigers). Not ideal to have just seven starts, and have many of them be tough matchups, but that’s the corner that we have painted ourselves into for this week. Let’s just find a way to secure three wins and not blow up our ratios too badly.
On the hitting side, we do have more decisions to make, though the injuries to Rengifo and IKF still put a damper on our overall flexibility. Each Contreras brother plays three games the first half of the week and we could choose to sit one for Fry who plays four (probably actually plays three), but we aren’t going to do that.
Our options at second base and middle infield are boxed in as new additions Xavier Edwards and Chris Taylor will be thrown right into the fire. Tovar coming off of a catastrophic 0-for-24 week has to play as well, though it can’t get any worse.
Ramirez, O’Neill, Arozarena and Duran are locked in. Tellez was an absolute beast for us last week and he gets four RHP to start against this week, so he has to be in.
Goldschmidt hasn’t been as good, and he only gets three games the first half of the week. We could play Fry’s four or three from Justin Turner (at Giants) in his place if we chose to.
Profar has been amazing the entire season, but he only gets two games in the first half of the week (vs. Mariners, Gilbert and Miller). It may make sense to sit him if we can get three or four games from another option.
Kepler gets three games against the White Sox (all RHP), so he’s probably in. Rendon (if he’s actually activated on Monday) gets four games (three vs. TEX, one vs SEA, all RHP). He could be worth a look.
Really what it comes down to, is we have to sit two players out of Goldschmidt, Profar, Rendon, Turner and Fry. We may just let Monday’s lineups dictate how we approach this one.
Where we Stand
Well, we started the week off with 97 league points, putting up 22.5 points behind Griffin Benger at the top and 15 points behind Carter Gill for second place in the league. We had a 10 point cushion on fourth place. We finished the week making some progress, climbing back up to 101.5 league points. That puts us 15.5 behind Benger at the top and only 9 back of Gill for second place. We’re 11.5 ahead of fourth place at the moment.
We started the week in 117th place out of 855 in the overall standings and at 24th place in the CLQ standings. We finish the week with a small drop down to 121st place in the overall. That’s far enough out of the picture that it’s probably time to start focusing exclusively on our league at this point in the season.
The CLQ has gone back to being nothing more than a pipe dream at this point. We had an absolutely brutal week on the OC leg of it, with blowups from Tanner Bibee, Sonny Gray and Cade Povich completely tanking our ratios and dropping us all the way down to 38th place in the standings. We’re going to keep grinding and fighting it out, but the good feelings of qualifying there have left the building for now.
As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my decision making, the emotional roller-coaster, etc. If you’d like more insights into the CLQ or why those other two teams are struggling to keep us going there, let me know. Those that have reached out so far, I can’t tell you how much it’s been appreciated. This has probably been my favorite column to write in the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.