The tales of frustrating pitching continue, at least on the ratio side. We also took a step back on offense and lost one of our key contributors to an injury. All of that being said, we were still able to put up a decent week across the board, and while we didn’t gain any ground, we didn’t lose much either.
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Hitting Review
It wasn’t the absolute premium production that we have come to expect from our offense over the past week and a half, but given the missed games due to injury/illness, we’ll certainly take the overall production that we received.
William Contreras finally hit another ball out of the yard, but he hit just .111 (2-for-18) on the week with two runs and two RBI. His elder brother, Willson, had a rare down week as well, hitting .148 (4-for-27) with three runs scored and zeroes across the rest of the board.
We’re never expecting huge production out of the first base position, so it was nice to see Paul Goldschmidt at least sock one dinger this week. The fact that he did so with a nice average (.269) and five runs scored was actually helpful as well.
Xavier Edwards has been a tremendous addition to our squad over the past few weeks, and Week 19 was no different. He hit .391 (9-for-23) with four runs scored, four RBI and three stolen bases. Just monstrous production out of the second base spot.
Ezequiel Tovar had a down week with his batting average (.160), but still socked a dinger and scored four times. We can live with that.
The real reason that our team was anywhere close to our targets on offense this week was Jose Ramirez. Our leader on offense put the team on his back and put up an unbelievable week that saw him hit .391 with five homers, nine runs scored, 11 RBI and two stolen bases. Simply stunning production.
Jarren Duran led the core of outfielders, hitting .407 with a homer, four runs scored, three RBI and a team-leading four stolen bases. Jurickson Profar homered, scored four times and drove in four runs. Randy Arozarena homered and scored a whopping seven runs. David Fry finally ran into one and drove in three runs. Tyler O’Neill was pretty empty overall on the week, then missed the final two games due to illness.
Rowdy Tellez had a rough week as well, contributing just one lousy RBI while hitting .167 on the week. That’s not going to cut it.
Luis Rengifo stole a base and scored three runs – but only totaled 10 at-bats for the week. He missed action in the front half of the week with a wrist injury, returned to the lineup on Friday, was pulled from that game with the same injury and wound up on the injured list. Not ideal.
Jeff McNeil started the front half of the week and hit .400 with three runs scored and three RBI. We’ll take that every time. Jose Iglesias only drew one start over the weekend and didn’t do much with it.
With all of the missed games we finished with just 283 at-bats under the week, which is well under the 300+ that we’re trying to achieve each week. Looking at our weekly targets though, the results were still acceptable. We crushed our target in runs (+12.7) and stolen bases (+2.3), beat our number in homers (+0.2), were right at the average target (-.001) and just barely missed the mark in RBI (-1.5). If that’s what a down week looks like for this offense, we’re going to be just fine.
Looking to the yearly targets, we’re way ahead of the pace still in runs (+56) and stolen bases (+7) and we’re even with the .259 target in batting average. We’re still chasing in home runs, but it’s much more manageable (-10). The deficit in RBI is bad, but it’s better than where it was a few weeks ago (-46).
Pitching Review
Alright, time to turn the page. New week, new outlook on our pitching staff. Things were going to really come together for us this week. Brimming with optimism.
Then we started the week with a mini disaster as Josh Hader came on in a tied game against the Pirates and served up a three-run homer to Michael A. Taylor. Nothing like a pile of ratio damage to start the week.
Things started to get back on track on Tuesday as Corbin Burnes took the hill against the Blue Jays. Our ace stepped up and performed like an ace, allowing two runs on four hits and three walks over his 6 2/3 innings in a much-needed victory. He even punched out seven batters for good measure.
FAAB addition Jonathan Cannon took the hill on Tuesday night against the Royals, looking to pick up where Burnes left off. He was extremely impressive, allowing just one run on one hit and three walks over seven stellar frames – striking out a pair and leaving with a one-run lead. Unfortunately, the bullpen protecting that lead belongs to the White Sox and it took less than an inning to give that up. Love the ratio help, could’ve really used the win.
We also snagged a save as Alexis Diaz worked a scoreless ninth inning to protect a three-run lead against the Cubs. So far, so good.
Our final starter taking the hill on Tuesday was FAAB double Griffin Canning who was taking on the Rockies. After giving up a pair of runs in the opening inning, the right-hander coughed up four more in the second including a three-run homer to Ryan McMahon. Oof. He then did some serious turd polish though, staying in the game to fire four scoreless innings to help ease the ratio hit. He also struck out six batters and somehow managed to leave with a 7-6 lead and in line for a victory. That is until Ezequiel Tovar slugged a solo homer to tie the game in the seventh inning, costing us another victory.
We also found out at Tuesday’s trade deadline that the Mets acquired Paul Blackburn from the Athletics and that he would be taking Tylor Megill’s spot in their rotation. So much for that being a possible impact FAAB addition.
Megill pitched out of the bullpen on Wednesday, allowing a run on four walks+hits over two innings against the Twins with a pair of strikeouts. He was then optioned to Triple-A on Friday. Oof.
Also on Wednesday Hader looked much better against the Pirates, working a scoreless ninth inning to protect a one-run advantage and he earned our second save of the week. Since we no longer have the luxury of a third closer, every save is going to matter going forward.
We would have to wait until Friday to have another starter take the hill, where we had three pitchers going for us. It started off very poorly as Erick Fedde made his Cardinals’ debut at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. He gave up five runs in the first two innings before settling in and gutting out five innings with just those five runs on six walks+hits with four strikeouts. Not great.
Shane Baz then took the mound against the Astros and looked really sharp, giving up only two runs on seven walks+hits over 5 1/3 innings while striking out five. He didn’t earn a win, but we’ll take that effort every time out.
Kutter Crawford then continued his recent trend of giving up the long ball – allowing four home runs (five runs in total) over 5 1/3 innings against the Rangers. He also allowed seven walks+hits while striking out five, just as Baz did. The difference is that the Red Sox’ offense provided ample run support, so despite the poor performance he managed to earn our second win of the week. We’ll take it at this point.
Josh Hader came on and worked a scoreless ninth inning on Friday night to pick up his second (our team’s third) save of the week. Alexis Diaz then took the mound on Saturday night, and though he served up a solo homer, he notched his second save of the week as well.
We had the second turn for each of our two doubles to close out the week on Sunday, hoping that for once we weren’t going to get our ratios destroyed on the final day of the week. Burnes didn’t give his best outing – giving up five runs (four earned) on eight walks+hits over five innings of work with four strikeouts. He still managed to earn a victory though, thanks to ample support from the Orioles’ offense. On a week that we were light on starts, we’ll take three wins.
Canning showed out well in his second start of the week, allowing just two runs on seven walks+hits over five innings against the Mets – striking out eight batters in the process. We definitely need the strikeouts, so we’ll take that. He even left his start with the lead for the second time this week and this time the Angels actually managed to hang on for him, earning our fourth victory of the week. Wahoo!
Looking at the weekly totals, we actually made the target in wins (+0.2) and saves (+0.9) while missing in strikeouts (-8.8) and missing badly in both ERA (-1.963) and WHIP (-0.109).
On the season, the only place we’re ahead of the pace is in saves (+4). We’re chasing a massive number in wins (-15) and strikeouts (-76) and we’re never going to get to where we need to be in the ratio categories.
FAAB Plan
It’s getting tougher and tougher trying to decide which direction to go each week. Now that we’re completely out of the running for the overall prizes and the CLQ looks like a pipe dream as well, we really should narrow our focus entirely to our league standings. That means letting up in areas where we don’t have as much to gain or lose in the standings and really attacking the categories where we can make some noise.
Let’s start out though, as we always do, with looking over our roster and analyzing who could be a potential drop this week. The easiest name to pick out is Tylor Megill, who was bumped from the Mets’ rotation and optioned to Triple-A Syracuse before he ever made a start for us. He can be easily replaced.
The only other live arm on the pitching side that could be cut is Griffin Canning. He has been delivering strikeouts though – which is one of the biggest areas of growth that we currently have available to us in the league standings. He’s also lined up for a strong matchup against the Nationals and Patrick Corbin in his one start next week. In terms of hunting wins from single starters, that’s not terrible either. Perhaps we could get another week of usefulness out of him.
The next place to look for drops on the pitching side is from our stable of stashes. We are currently holding four injured starting pitchers. With only eight weeks left in the regular season, if these guys aren’t going to help us within the next two or three weeks, it’s probably not worth it to hold onto them any longer. Ryan Pepiot should be the first one back. Information on his status has been limited over the past week, but there’s some hope that he could even rejoin the Rays’ rotation before the end of next week. Even if he needs a rehab start, he should return the following week. Seems like a hold to me.
Justin Verlander threw a live bullpen session over the weekend and appears to be on the fast track for a return. He says that he’ll need two minor league rehab starts before he’s ready, so that should put him back in the Astros’ rotation 2-3 weeks from now. We can wait for that.
Clarke Schmidt is the biggest potential impact arm that we’re holding, and he has been cleared to throw his first live bullpen session on Tuesday. He’ll probably repeat the exercise a couple of times before starting a rehab assignment. It still seems reasonable to expect him back before the end of August.
The one that I’m struggling with is Walker Buehler. He’ll make one final rehab start at Triple-A Oklahoma City next week before rejoining the Dodgers. He didn’t look good before the injury though and certainly didn’t look sharp on his minor league rehab assignment. We’ll probably wait and see what he looks like when he returns – as the win equity pitching for the Dodgers is just so high – but my hopes are tempered with that one.
That’s really it on the pitching side. We’re also holding a stash on the hitting side in Matt McLain. McLain has proven to be an impact five-category contributor when healthy and there’s optimism that he could begin a minor league rehab assignment on August 12. He’ll probably need a week’s worth of games or so before he’s ready to return to the Reds, so expecting him back before the end of August seems fair. We’ll continue to hold for now unless he suffers a setback.
That leaves us with Luis Rengifo who landed back on the injured list on Saturday due to renewed soreness in his right wrist. He’s heading for further testing to determine the severity of the injury, but he’s going to miss a couple of weeks at a minimum and likely longer. Rengifo has been terrific for us this season, there’s no doubt, but his biggest assets are stolen bases and batting average – two categories that we’re very strong in at the moment. If we need anything on offense, it’s RBI and that’s not something that he provides. We may be early to the dance here, but I think that cutting Rengifo is the right move.
That gives us two spots that we can upgrade for this week; what else do we have? Jose Iglesias has been hitting for average and stealing the occasional base as well, but not doing much else. He has also lost playing time over the past couple of weeks – starting just two games last week. He looks to be an easy drop as well.
The other places that we could look to upgrade on offense if we need to are Max Kepler and David Fry. Each of them homered this week, and each of them hit in the middle of their respective lineups when they played. In theory, that should continue to lead to RBI chances. I also still like Fry’s versatility. They’re both on the fence if we need a fourth drop, but I don’t think it’s going to come to that this week.
So three drops to play with, what looks interesting on the waiver wire? The one name that jumps off the page is Rays’ left-hander Jeffrey Springs who returned from Tommy John surgery last week. We saw the huge prices that Robbie Ray and Clayton Kershaw pulled in last week, but it sounds like the expectation around the fantasy space is that Springs won’t be as sought after. I think that he could be one of the last impact arms that comes along this season and the fact that he’s lined up to start twice next week should only inflate his price. We only have $164 to play with for the remainder of the season, so we can’t get too crazy, but I’m currently sizing up bids in the $90-$105 range, hoping that it’s enough. Vlad Sedler of FTN Fantasy, who writes the best weekly FAAB guide in the business, has Springs only pegged with a range of $23-$46 after he struggled in his first start back. Hopefully my competitors expect the range to be similar and don’t go crazy on him, leaving us in the mix.
After Springs, it’s more of the same types that we’ve been cycling through for weeks. Bailey Falter is expected to line up for two starts (vs. Padres, at Dodgers), Davis Daniel may get two (at Yankees, vs. Nationals), Robbery Munoz lines up for two (vs. Reds, vs. Padres), but none of those are terribly exciting. Patrick Corbin gets two (vs. Giants, vs. Angels) and in theory he could win one of those games. Ross Stripling draws a strong one-start week against the White Sox, he could be worth a look. Anyone want to risk two starts at Coors Field from Kyle Freeland (vs. Mets, vs. Braves)? That’s where we are at.
On the hitting side, Seth Brown is interesting for a week against right-handers. Orlando Arcia clubbed four home runs this week and he gets a series at Coors next week. Old friend Jake Fraley is lined up for seven games against righties next week. Joey Loperfido, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Miguel Vargas are all mildly interesting as well.
I’m expecting to overpay and get Springs, then probably end up with something like Seth Brown ($3) and Baily Falter ($4). We’ll see.
FAAB Results
Ugh. We really tried to add Jeffrey Springs to the mix, going as high as $103 of our $164 remaining to get the job done. Unfortunately that was $4 too short as he wound up going for a bid of $107.
Mason Miller pulled in the next highest bid at $67 ($41), but we weren’t shopping in the bullpen this week so we weren’t devoting any resources there. Coby Mayo reeled in the third highest bid at $34 ($15), but once again we didn’t have interest there.
We did have a small bid in on IKF to bring him back into the fold, but not even enough for the runner-up bid there ($18 to $5). Same can be said for Orlando Arcia as he went for $15 ($13).
Carter Gill added some speed to his roster, adding Victor Scott II for $9 ($5). Eloy Jimenez pulled in $8 ($2) and A.J. Puk went for a perfect bid of $7 ($7).
I considered Alex Call this week, but at $6 ($1) I wouldn’t have gotten high enough to get there. Also came up short on bringing back Jake Fraley as he went for $5 ($5) and I was at $4 on him.
Our first acquisition of the week was Bailey Falter, who we are hoping draws the two-step that we’re expecting from him. The winning bid there was $4 ($1) with Megill as the drop. We also picked up the Ross Stripling single against the White Sox for $4 ($1) with Rengifo as the drop.
The final acquisition came on the offensive side of the ball, adding Seth Brown for $3 (unopposed) with Iglesias as the drop. We’ll see if this one comes back to bite us. We also had interest in Loperfido, but had Brown ranked higher on the list. Loperfido ended up going to league-leader Griffin Benger for $3 instead. If Loperfido crushes it over the final two months of the season, we’re going to seriously regret that ordering decision.
Looking over the drops from around the league, here’s what might be interesting: Garrett Crochet. I get that he’s only throwing four innings at a time right now and won’t be eligible for wins if he continues to do so. The ratios and strikeouts have still been there though. He could be worth a look.
Looking Ahead
Let’s try to turn the page to another week after spinning our wheels once again in Week 19.
Given the fact that we’re now holding five stashes on our bench, we only have two extra players – one hitter and one pitcher – to play matchups with.
On the hitting side, we have to decide to sit one bat. It may end up coming down to what lineups look like on Monday, but the early lean is to sit Fry for three against the Diamondbacks (Gallen, Rodriguez and Pfaadt). He’ll probably only play two and the matchups aren’t ideal. That all changes if Tyler O’Neill is still under the weather and doesn’t play on Monday though. That also means that we’re hoping for two games each from Max Kepler and Seth Brown who will each face one southpaw.
On the pitching side, the decision is actually a bit trickier. Still need to choose just one arm to sit, but there are several ways that we could go there. Burnes is a lock for his one at the Rays. We’ll use Fedde for one vs. the Rays. We kept Canning to throw his single against the Nationals and Patrick Corbin. That’s three. We’ll roll Cannon’s single against the A’s in Oakland. We picked up Stripling to use against the White Sox. Shane Baz against the Cardinals in St. Louis looks like a decent spot. Bailey Falter – presuming that he gets the double we’re expecting (vs. Padres, at Dodgers), has to be in our lineup as we don’t have any other doubles. That’s seven.
Notice I didn’t mention Kutter Crawford. The Red Sox’ right-hander has been giving up home runs like they’re going out of style and has surrendered five, six and five runs in his last three starts. His one matchup isn’t great – taking on the Royals and Cole Ragans in Kansas City.
If we’re rolling with seven starters and two closers, Crawford is the one that I would sit. That is, presuming we go 7/2. We’re in a great place in saves and need to make up as much ground as humanly possible in wins and strikeouts. We could opt to sit Hader in a six-game week (Diaz gets seven), giving us an extra start. Is that Crawford start any more likely to deliver wins and strikeouts than two or three outings from Hader though? I don’t think so. My early lean is to sit Crawford, but we’ll see how things look on Monday.
Where we Stand
We entered week 19 with 102.5 league points, keeping us squarely in third place. That was 21 points behind Benger at the top and 11 points behind Gill for second place. Our lead on fourth place had shrunk to just seven points. We finished the week with 102.0 league points, so a small step backwards. Our 21 point deficit behind Benger at the top has shrunk to 19 points. We remain 11 points behind Gill for second. We now have an 11 point edge on Dussault for third place.
We entered the week in 118th place overall in the Main Event and in 52nd place in the CLQ standings. We took a small step down to 124th place in the overall and to 70th place in the CLQ standings. We’ll keep including the standings, but neither of these things is going to happen this season.
I don’t know if we can make up the ground that we need to in order to take down Benger at the top of the league. We’re certainly going to try though. First we have to catch Gill in second place, which seems like a much more doable task. The progress needs to start now though. Week 20 is where we start to make our move.
As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my decision making, the emotional roller-coaster, etc. If you’d like more insights into the CLQ or why those other two teams are struggling to keep us going there, let me know. Those that have reached out so far, I can’t tell you how much it’s been appreciated. This has probably been my favorite column to write in the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.