A couple of monster days on offense salvaged the week overall, but the struggle on the pitching side – particularly in wins continued once again. We also made a poor lineup decision on that end, and wound up leaving a three-save week on the bench. We’re grinding away though, trying to continue to rise up the standings and make noise with what is becoming a much deeper and better-rounded roster.
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Hitting Review
Overall, it was a productive but very strange week on the offensive side of the ledger. We lost a handful of at-bats during the front half of the week as Jake Fraley (lined up against three RHP) was hit in the hand by a pitch during his first plate appearance and wound up missing the remainder of the period, giving us a full zero.
Aside from that, it was the story of the haves and the have-nots as it was really a handful of guys that carried our squad – and just two days really where we were super productive. We had a seven homer, 16 RBI explosion on Tuesday and then a six-homer day on Saturday to catch most of our production.
Both of our catchers were extremely productive once again, which is always a huge positive. William Contreras blasted a homer and drove in six runs. David Fry was a monster yet again, going 6-for-13 (.462) with a pair of homers, five RBI, five runs scored and a stolen base. He has been an absolute stud in the two weeks that we’ve used him.
Ezequiel Tovar had another strong week, hitting .367 with a pair of homers, six runs scored and four RBI. Jose Ramirez is playing like an MVP candidate and had an unbelievable week – even by his standards. He hit .348 with four homers, 11 RBI, seven runs scored and a stolen base for good measure.
Jarren Duran had a helpful week as well, hitting .280 with a homer, steal, four runs scored and three RBI. That’ll play every time. Luis Rengifo also had a big week for us, hitting .400 (10-for-25) with two long balls, two stolen bases, five runs scored and five RBI.
Paul Goldschmidt even got in on the fun this week, crushing a pair of home runs on Sunday night and stealing a base while driving in five runs on the week.
Those seven guys really accounted for the bulk of our offensive production. Jo Adell did hit a pair of home runs, but those were his only two hits in 25 at-bats on the week. Jurickson Profar scored five runs but didn’t do much else across the board. Jon Singleton belted a home run, but the pickings were very slim elsewhere.
Tyler O’Neill went hitless in 15 at-bats on the week before suffering a knee injury on Saturday and missing Sunday’s game. Josh Rojas, Jorge Polanco, Mark Canha, Max Kepler and Jake Bauers each struggled in their half-week in our lineup.
You’ll also notice that you didn’t see Randy Arozarena on the list above at all, that’s because we wound up benching him for both halves of the week. It didn’t come back to bite us either, as he went just 2-for-15 (.133) with two runs scored.
Overall though, we were able to hit three of our five targets and didn’t miss by much in the other two. We were +5.6 in runs, a massive +5.8 in home runs, +6.4 in RBI, -2.1 in stolen bases and only fell a couple of hits short in batting average.
On the season now, we have built up a surplus of +23 in the runs scored department. We have also pulled even in the home run department after a pair of strong weeks in the category. We still have a sizable deficit in RBI (-19) but it’s at least trending in the right direction. We’re now three stolen bases behind the pace while we’re slowly closing the gap in batting average. The offense really hasn’t been the problem.
Pitching Review
Things were a bit better on the pitching side this week, but those pesky wins continue to frustrate us.
The week did not start out well, as Erick Fedde was lit up by the Blue Jays on Monday afternoon, putting us in a large ratio hole to begin the week. He also recorded only two strikeouts in the miserable outing. Sigh.
Michael Wacha did his job though, allowing just two runs over seven innings against the Tigers to pick up our first win of the week. You would’ve liked to have seen more than three punchouts, but we’ll take it.
We also had one closer take the hill on Monday as Trevor Megill suffered a blown save. He got the first two outs in the ninth, then allowed a single to Nick Gordon. Gordon then swiped second base on an extremely close call and raced around to score on a bloop single by Otto Lopez. Hard to fault him too much for that one.
On Tuesday, things were much improved overall. Megill came in and closed out the Marlins in that one with three strikeouts to boot. Josh Hader worked two scoreless frames against the Angels, punched out four batters and earned our second victory of the week. Things were looking up.
Key FAAB addition Cal Quantrill dominated in his first start of the week against the Athletics in Oakland, allowing just two runs on four walks+hits over six innings while racking up eight strikeouts. He exited with a 4-2 lead and in line for a victory, but Justin Lawrence and the Rockies’ bullpen had other plans. Every time it happens, it’s painful, but when wins are such a critical category for us it’s especially brutal every time a bullpen blows a win for one of our starters.
Then we had to sit through a couple of days with no pitching at all until we had four hurlers take the mound on Friday night.
When Friday rolled around, we were excited to have four starters take the hill. That excitement would wane pretty quickly. If you remember back to the end of last week’s column, we were debating whether or not to bench slumping closer Alexis Diaz to get an extra start in this week, since we’re chasing so much ground in wins. If we were to play Diaz, we would’ve had to sit either big FAAB acquisition Alek Manoah against the lowly Tigers or Kutter Crawford in a tough spot against the Brewers. Ultimately, we wound up sitting Diaz and playing both starters. That was not the right call.
Not only did Diaz record a save on Tuesday to start the week, but both Manoah and Crawford turned in disastrous outings. Manoah gave up six runs (four earned) over 4 2/3 innings against the Tigers with only four strikeouts while Crawford laid his biggest egg of the season with six earned runs across 4 1/3 frames and a 2.08 WHIP to go with four punchouts. Not great. Diaz also punished our decision further with another save on Saturday. Oh, and another on Sunday as well.
Corbin Burnes was better, allowing three runs over six innings in his start with six strikeouts. He even exited with a 4-3 lead, but like Quantrill earlier in the week, the bullpen was unable to hang on for him. That’s two lost wins already for the week.
Thankfully, Justin Verlander finished the night with an absolute gem, allowing only one earned run over six innings against the A’s with a season-high nine strikeouts. He nabbed our third victory of the week and Josh Hader closed it out with a scoreless inning and a pair of punchouts to earn the save.
On Saturday, Fedde followed suit with a brilliant start of his own, shutting out the Orioles on six walks+hits over 6 1/3 innings while striking out six batters. He exited with a 3-0 advantage and in line for a victory, but once again poor work from the bullpen doomed us. Jordan Leasure served up a two-run homer in the eighth inning, then Michael Kopech came on to try to get a five-out save and wound up giving up three more runs in the eighth. That’s three wins lost to bullpen implosions on the week. Perfect.
Wacha took the hill on Sunday against the Rays and carried a perfect game into the sixth inning. He returned for the seventh with a 1-0 lead though and allowed a pair of hits to start the frame before turning the ball over to the bullpen – and both inherited runners ultimately scored. Still good ratios and seven strikeouts, but nothing in the win department.
The final start of the week came from the second half of Quantrill’s double – in a tough spot against the Phillies at Coors Field. He was also up against Phillies’ left-hander Ranger Suarez who had been 9-0 on the season. Naturally, Quantrill went out and dominated, giving up just two runs on five walks+hits over his six innings while punching out five batters – earning our fourth victory of the week. He was worth every penny we spent on him in FAAB.
Overall, looking back to our targets, we still managed to hit our wins target for the week – despite the fact that we had bullpens blow three leads for us throughout the week. We also grazed our target in saves (-0.3) while missing out on a three-save week from Diaz. We came in 9.5 strikeouts ahead of our target there, while hitting our WHIP target but falling well short in ERA.
On the season, we now have a surplus of six strikeouts to work with while we’re chasing seven wins, six saves and a boatload in both ratio categories. We’d be in a much stronger position overall had we used Diaz instead of either Crawford or Manoah. Live and learn.
FAAB Plan
I know that I’ve shared similar sentiments in other weeks, but this week is proving to be incredibly tricky for me once again. It doesn’t help that it’s a holiday weekend and I’m out of town with the extended family, breaking up the normal Sunday routine to hammer out bid lists.
The number one goal should really be to conserve FAAB, as we’re already down to $405 remaining from our initial budget of $1000. Fortunately, there aren’t any major impact additions that we’d like to be bidding on this week, so conserving shouldn’t be too difficult.
We’re always looking to upgrade the squad though, so let’s start out by checking over the roster and seeing who could potentially be drops for us. Cal Quantrill has pitched very well, but he was added solely for his two starts this week and isn’t someone that we would normally utilize for a single-start week. Just to be thorough, we’ll take a look at his upcoming schedule – at the Dodgers, at the Cardinals, at the Twins for each of the next three weeks. The Cardinals’ start isn’t terrible, but it’s not something we’re going to want to hold him for, are we? He’s most likely a drop despite the strong performance.
After that, it gets very difficult. Mark Canha plays most days for the Tigers, but he’s a fringe bat and could stand to be upgraded if the right opportunity presents itself. Have to keep in mind though that he’s up to seven games at first base now and will eventually be 1B/OF eligible. Josh Rojas has cooled considerably over the past few weeks and has now been relegated to the bottom of the Mariners’ lineup now that J.P. Crawford has returned. He could also be upgraded if the right situation arises.
Further complicating matters, Tyler O’Neill suffered a knee injury on Saturday and missed Sunday’s game. We should probably plan to be without him for at least the first half of next week – and we may not want to use him anyways after he went hitless this week.
In addition, Jon Singleton will now have to contend with the return of Jose Abreu on Monday. The Astros will face four right-handers from the Mariners during the first half of the week, so we should get a pretty good sense of how that situation may play out going forward. Do we risk cutting Singleton now before we get confirmation that he’s going to lose at-bats to Abreu?
Also need to consider that Jorge Polanco left Sunday’s game with an aggravation with his hamstring injury and is heading for an MRI on Monday. Polanco was on the fringe of the roster already, if he’s heading to the injured list that’s not a player that we’re going to want to hold. He’s on the block now as well.
So we have an idea, at least somewhat, of who could potentially be a drop for us. Let’s take a look at what we need. As we have seen throughout the season, our biggest deficiency right now is wins on the pitching side. Looking forward to next week, none of the pitchers on our current roster are lined up for two starts. That’s a problem. That means if we roll out all three closers, which we probably should be doing (and got burned for not doing this week), then we’re stuck with only six starts in total. Even in the best of matchups, that would only give us a win expectancy of around two wins for the week – half of our weekly target. That puts us even further behind a growing number that we’re already chasing.
On the flip side though, is adding a risky two-start pitcher really adding much to that win expectancy? It’s debatable. We could always sit a closer again and have seven starts for the week, but that’s still not quite what we’re looking for.
So, what’s available on the wire this week? In terms of those two-start arms, it isn’t much. The best option is probably Taijuan Walker, who is backed by the powerful Phillies’ offense. He’ll take on the Giants (Snell) in San Francisco on Monday and the Cardinals (Lynn) at home on Sunday. He would only be a one-week rental, but is far and away the best of a bad bunch and should draw plenty of interest around the league. We’ll probably go a few dollars higher than we normally would for this type of arm.
After that, the only other option that’s even mildly intriguing to me is Austin Gomber. Kind of the same situation with Quantrill from last week, Gomber has been pitching very well and Coors Field hasn’t been the house of horrors that it has been in recent seasons – at least not yet. He’ll battle the Guardians (Curry) at home on Monday before taking on the Dodgers (Stone) in Los Angeles on Sunday. I get that the matchups aren’t very favorable; this is just a testament to what’s available. Tyler Anderson doubles the following week and will probably be third on the list behind Gomber.
If we dig even deeper, we’d be gambling on Xzavion Curry (at Rockies, vs. Nationals) or Mitch Spence (at Rays, at Braves). Woof. Maybe we’re just better off rolling six starts.
On the offensive side, Jake Meyers is interesting once again. He has been lighting the world on fire for the Astros and has assumed an everyday role in their outfield. Is it sustainable? We’ll see, but it would be nice to ride the hot hand while he’s killing it. I’ll throw out a small-ish bid, but it won’t be near the amount that it takes to get him.
The guys that seem more attainable and are more interesting to me are DJ LeMahieu and Edmundo Sosa. I know they aren’t the sexiest names, but both are multi-position eligible and are going to be in everyday roles at least in the near-term. LeMahieu (1B/3B) is set to return from the injured list on Tuesday and should start at third base on a regular basis while batting leadoff for the Yankees. That has some value, even though he isn’t going to run at all. Edmundo Sosa (3B/SS) has better eligibility with middle/corner and is playing most days for the Phillies while Trea Turner (hamstring) is sidelined. He’s got a bit of power and a bit of speed, though he’s hitting near the bottom of the lineup. To me, he looks like a better version of Josh Rojas.
The other name that has really piqued my interest is Triston Casas. I’d hate to tie up another roster spot with a zero for at least three weeks (we’re already holding Willson Contreras and O’Neill is up in the air), but he looks like he could provide a major impact when he does return. Casas is eligible to return from the injured list on June 21 and has ramped up activities over the past few days with the intention of returning on the day that he’s eligible. We’re suffering through Paul Goldschmidt’s meager production at first base and have been searching for a viable corner infielder all season. Casas is only available in 17 percent of Main Event leagues, so it’s tough to gauge what type of bid range it’ll require to snag him. I’ll put in a serious bid with the hope that it’s enough.
After that, there’s not much that I’m even putting on my conditional bid lists. Bryan Ramos returned to the White Sox lineup this week and could slip through cheaply. Maybe Jacob Hurtubise, who has settled in as the Reds’ new leadoff hitter. Gets decent matchups this week and goes to Coors Field as part of a seven-game week next week. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa for a small bid as well perhaps?
We could wind up spending a few dollars and adding an impact player. We could wind up with no one. Let’s see how it plays out.
FAAB Review
Honestly, I’m not even sure how I’m feeling about the haul for this week. We wound up making four additions and four drops, but I’m not sure whether or not the team has really improved or not in the long run. I guess we’ll wait and see.
The top bid of the week went to Jake Meyers on a rare splurge from Phil Dussault at $85. We were the runner-up bid at $38, but obviously weren’t close to securing his services.
The next biggest bid was another player that we were interested in, Triston Casas. We only went to $18, which wasn’t even enough to put us as the runner-up, as he went for $48 ($20).
A bit further down the list, we find our first win of the week, and in a painful realization given our budgetary constraints, it’s an overpay to get Taijuan Walker for $18 ($3). At least it gives us an extra start for next week to continue fighting the battle in wins. Quantrill was the drop on that one.
We also added Edmundo Sosa to the mix for $13 ($12). We talked about his dual eligibility at corner and middle, which should really come in handy over the next couple of weeks at least. He has also been swinging a hot bat and possesses a nice blend of power and speed. We could do a lot worse. Polanco was the drop on this one.
We came up short as the runner-up bids on DJ LeMahieu $14 ($12), Tyler Anderson $18 ($6) and Jacob Hurtubise $12 ($6).
We thought there was a chance that we could sneak Bryan Ramos through pretty cheaply, but still went a couple of extra dollars that we didn’t need to – getting him for $6 unopposed. Canha was the drop on that one, which may end up being only a lateral move, but we’ll see.
The final addition was Isiah Kiner-Falefa for $3 ($1) with Rojas as the drop. He’s another guy that has awesome eligibility with second base, third base and outfield, he’s been playing regularly for the Blue Jays and swinging a hot bat as well. Maybe we’ll stumble into something useful here.
As far as interesting drops from around the league, here’s what jumped out to me at first glance. We see a bunch of our retreads thrown back out there again: Joey Meneses, Javier Baez and Jarred Kelenic. Xander Bogaerts is a big name, but he’s also slated to miss at least a couple of months. Kodai Senga could be interesting if there’s ever a chance that he’s actually going to pitch. Not really a whole lot else out there. It’s possible if Polanco doesn’t wind up on the injured list that both he and Canha will be the top two options available to bid on next week.
Looking Ahead
Well, let’s see what we have to work with this week. Starting on the pitching side this time. We’re not going to make the same mistake and sit the third closer again, even though Diaz will probably go back to being a pumpkin and won’t record a save during the upcoming week. That’s three spots.
Burnes always plays, so he’s four. We picked up Walker to use his double, so that’s five. That leaves us four spots left from our remaining stable of arms. Here’s the options:
Verlander at the Mariners
Crawford at the Orioles
Fedde at the Brewers
Pepiot home against the Athletics
Manoah at the White Sox
Wacha home against the Padres
As crazy as it sounds given how good he has been this season, the toughest matchup of that group is probably Crawford at the Orioles. Given his struggles this past week, he’s probably a sit. That means we need to sit one more from that group. Wacha and Fedde were both great this past week in double starts, but they’re the two worst matchups from the remaining group. As of now, the slight lean is toward sitting Wacha, but we’ll see how we’re feeling on Monday.
On the hitting side of the ledger, there are plenty of options to sort through. Let’s get the automatics out of the way.
Both catchers are in as we don’t have any alternatives there. Tovar, Ramirez, Duran and Rengifo are automatics. That gets us to six. That leaves us eight spots still to fill.
Profar has been great, aside from this past week, and he gets three left-handers from the Marlins, he’s probably in. Kepler gets four games against the Royals with only one southpaw, so he’s probably in there as well.
Jon Singleton gets four games against Mariners’ right-handers. We’ll see what the lineup looks like on Monday and how the playing time shakes out with Jose Abreu back in the mix. Arozarena gets three weak right-handers from the Athletics. If that’s not enough to get him going, nothing will be. He’s got to get another shot. After Sunday night’s two-homer barrage, Goldschmidt probably deserves to start.
We’re assuming that O’Neill will miss at least another couple of games, so he’s out. Adell gets three against the Yankees with two left-handers (Cortes, Gil, Rodon). Fraley gets three against the Cardinals with one southpaw, so he’ll only start two. Bauers plays four against the Cubs, but two of them are against left-handers. He’ll start two and could be used off the bench in the others. Bryan Ramos should play three against Jays’ right-handers. Edmundo Sosa gets two left-handers in three games with the Giants. Kiner-Falefa gets three weak rights from the White Sox.
It’s really going to depend on lineups. My early lean is to sit Bauers, Singleton, O’Neill and Fraley, but that could really go a variety of different ways.
Where we Stand
Heading into the week, we were sitting at 102.5 points in our league, 10 points ahead of third place in the league and 11.5 behind the leader. We finished the week at 107.5 league points, so a nice jump of five points. We’re still 10 points behind the leader while our edge on the third place squad has been extended to 12.5 points.
We were also in 118th place out of 855 teams in the overall competition. We have gained at least a little ground in the overall standings, moving inside the top-100 up to 73rd place overall. Just need to keep grinding and plugging away there.
As for the CLQ standings, we also made up some ground – climbing from 45th place back up to 15th. If the season ended today, we would have a seat at the auction table next March. Let’s go!
Now is the time to start stacking together strong weeks and continue the upward trajectory up the standings. That’s going to be a serious challenge with only seven starts on the pitching side, let’s just hope that we can snag at least three wins and the ratios hold up.
It’s been an incredibly fun journey so far, let’s just hope that it continues and that we have something amazing to look back on at the end of the year when all is said and done.
As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my poor decision making – anything. Those that have reached out so far, it has been very appreciated. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.