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Saves and Steals: It’s Miller time

Fantasy ripple effects from Albies' injury
Eric Samulski and Scott Pianowski review where fantasy managers should turn in the wake of Ozzie Albies' toe injury, assessing how it impacts Orlando Arcia and Jarred Kelenic and others.

In this week’s Saves and Steals, Mason Miller is rising through the ranks as he mows down the competition in the ninth inning. Through three weeks, Ryan Helsley, Clay Holmes, and Kyle Finnegan hold the lead in baseball with seven saves. Jordan Romano was called upon in the ninth inning on his first day off the injured list. And Kirby Yates is the latest reliever to take control of the ninth inning for their team. In the speed department, Jonatan Clase could make an impact in Seattle, and Wilyer Abreu is running in Boston.

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Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings

Tier 1: At the Top

Edwin Díaz - New York Mets

Díaz worked back-to-back days, converting a pair of saves against the Royals and Pirates to give him four on the season. The fastball velocity is still down a bit, which has lowered the whiff rate on the pitch. But his slider is still among the best out there. The 30-year-old star closer is up to 10 strikeouts, two walks, and one run allowed over seven innings of work.

Tier 2: The Elite

Emmanuel Clase - Cleveland Guardians
Evan Phillips - Los Angeles Dodgers
Raisel Iglesias - Atlanta Braves
Josh Hader - Houston Astros
Ryan Helsley - St. Louis Cardinals
Craig Kimbrel - Baltimore Orioles
Camilo Doval - San Francisco Giants
Pete Fairbanks - Tampa Bay Rays

Clase was charged with back-to-back blown saves this week. He gave up a run on two hits against the Yankees on Sunday, then allowed a hit to bring in an unearned run in the 10th inning against the Red Sox on Tuesday. Still, he’s looked good in the early going. Clase’s swinging-strike rate is up a bit from last season, and he’s yet to walk a batter across eight innings.

Another save this week for Phillips gives him five through three weeks. The 29-year-old right-hander has been one of the best relievers in run prevention since the start of 2022. He’s off to another outstanding start and should top the 24 saves he accumulated in 2023.

Iglesias had a nice run this week, converting three saves to bring his total to four. Facing the Braves down by two runs in the ninth, Hader surrendered four runs and recorded just one out on Monday, followed by a clean inning with three strikeouts on Wednesday in a tie game. He’s recorded just one save for the Astros.

Helsley makes a push up the rankings this week with a pair of saves, tying him for the league lead with seven. He’s pitched clean innings with two strikeouts in his last three appearances. While it’s still early, he’s missing bats at a similar rate to his 2022 breakout campaign.

Kimbrel has been the most impressive reliever in the early going. He’s struck out 14 batters for a league-leading 52 percent strikeout rate with no walks across eight innings, converting four-of-five save chances.

The Giants have given Doval only three save opportunities, as he’s taken the mound just five times this season. He converted all three save chances, including two this week against the Marlins. And Fairbanks sits at three saves after adding one this week.

Tier 3: The Solid Options

Andrés Muñoz - Seattle Mariners
Clay Holmes - New York Yankees
Robert Suarez - San Diego Padres
Mason Miller - Oakland A’s
Adbert Alzolay - Chicago Cubs
Alexis Díaz - Cincinnati Reds
David Bednar - Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Foley - Detroit Tigers
Jordan Romano - Toronto Blue Jays

Muñoz has pitched the eighth inning in four of his six outings. While he’s incredibly skilled, he just isn’t going to be used as a traditional closer. Ryne Stanek has tied Muñoz on the team with two saves. In New York, Holmes added another two saves for seven on the year. He’s yet to allow a run while striking out six batters with one walk across nine innings. Suarez is also pitching well through the first three weeks. He’s allowed one run with eight strikeouts over 8 1/3 innings while taking hold of the closer role and locking down six saves.

Miller is quickly rising up the rankings. The 25-year-old right-hander’s electrifying stuff is a must-watch when on the mound. He picked up three saves this week for four on the year while striking out 17 batters over nine innings. Despite the questionable team context, he’s going to end up among the most valuable relievers with the A’s using him as a traditional closer.

No saves this week for Díaz. He’s been solid after a three-run outing his first time out. He recorded four outs against the Mariners on Wednesday, giving him a 4.91 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and a 9/5 K/BB ratio across 7 1/3 innings with a pair of saves. Meanwhile, Bednar hasn’t been able to get right. He did pick up a save with a clean inning against the Phillies but was hit for three runs in a non-save situation against the Mets on Wednesday. Bednar has converted just two of five save chances. Behind Bednar, Aroldis Chapman had gotten off to a great start, making eight scoreless appearances before giving up three runs to the Mets on Monday. I’d expect Bednar to continue to get the save chances in Pittsburgh, but it’s a situation to keep an eye on.

Two more saves for Foley this week bring him up a tier in the rankings. Despite the occasional usage outside of the ninth inning, he’s getting most of the saves in Detroit. He’s up to five on the season with nine strikeouts and no runs allowed over nine innings.

Romano was activated from the injured list on Tuesday after nursing an elbow injury this spring and was thrown into a save situation right away. He gave up one run against the Yankees but held on for his first save.

Tier 4: There’s Upside Here

Kenley Jansen - Boston Red Sox
Jose Alvarado/Jeff Hoffman - Philadelphia Phillies
Kevin Ginkel - Arizona Diamondbacks
James McArthur - Kansas City Royals
Kirby Yates - Texas Rangers
Michael Kopech - Chicago White Sox

Jansen surrendered runs in both outings this week. He held on for the save on Sunday but was charged with a blown save Tuesday against the Guardians. Despite just the two runs allowed on the season so far, he’s gotten in some trouble with eight walks over 6 2/3 innings.

It’s been a committee in Philadelphia, with Alvarado and Hoffman splitting ninth-inning work. Alvarado picked up his third save on Wednesday with a scoreless inning against the Rockies. He’s still the reliever to roster in Philadelphia, but expect Hoffman to get a share of save opportunities based on matchups.

It was a bit of everything for Ginkel this week. He picked up his third save Saturday against the Cardinals, then blew an opportunity against the Cubs on Monday. Ginkel came back with a clean inning of work on Tuesday and fell in line for the win. While he’s been solid, expect Paul Sewald to resume closing duties when he returns from an oblique injury.

The closer role is officially McArthur’s in Kansas City. He added two more saves this week for four on the season. The 27-year-old right-hander has yet to allow a run while striking out 12 batters and walking one through 9 2/3 innings. As the full-time closer for the Royals, McArthur has the upside to accumulate 25-plus saves and should be added in all formats.

Jose Leclerc was officially removed from ninth-inning duties for the time being. Yates has stepped in with a save and a win this week against the Tigers. After converting his first save on Monday, he recorded four outs on Wednesday, all via strikeout, and earned the win. The 37-year-old veteran has been impressive early on, striking out nine batters with one hit, two walks, and no runs allowed across 7 1/3 innings. Given Leclerc’s volatility over his career, Yates may run with the job for as long as he’s effective, much like Will Smith did last season in Texas. If available, he’s an immediate add for saves.

In both of Kopech’s saves this season, he’s gone out for the eighth and pitched the rest of the game. He was poised to do the same on Wednesday against the Royals but couldn’t convert this time. Kopech took the mound with a one-run lead in the eighth inning and gave up two runs on two hits and a walk with one strikeout, coming away with a blown save and the loss.

Tier 5: Just Getting By

Joel Payamps/Abner Uribe - Milwaukee Brewers
Carlos Estévez - Los Angeles Angels
Kyle Finnegan - Washington Nationals
Griffin Jax/Brock Stewart/Steven Okert - Minnesota Twins

It appeared Uribe was running with the closer role in the early going after picking up three saves. This week, he was used outside of the ninth, entering in the seventh inning against the Orioles on Sunday and taking the loss. He then pitched the fourth and fifth innings against the Padres on Tuesday before picking up a win with a scoreless eighth inning on Wednesday. Joel Payamps stepped in for his second save. And Trevor Megill could return from the 7-day concussion injured list any day and enter the saves mix. Overall, it’s a bit of a mess, but Payamps is worth an add for saves where available.

Estévez had his first lapse in the ninth inning on Tuesday, giving up two runs and blowing the save chance against the Rays. He’s otherwise gotten the job done, converting three saves for the Angels. Robert Stephenson was expected to push him for the role at some point this season, but he’ll miss the year with an elbow injury. And with Jose Soriano joining the starting rotation, Estévez faces little competition and should have a long leash on the closer role.

Finnegan has also done a good enough job to hold his gig, recording seven saves to tie Helsley and Holmes for most in baseball through three weeks. He’s had a nice run of three consecutive clean outings after some shaky appearances early on.

Jax’s last six appearances had come in the eighth inning before Wednesday when he took the mound in the ninth in a tie game and surrendered two runs to take the loss. It’s another situation that probably isn’t worth chasing until Jhoan Duran returns from the injured list. After throwing a 25-pitch bullpen session this week, he’ll be facing live hitters in the coming days and shouldn’t be far off from a rehab assignment.

Tier 6: If You Must

Tanner Scott - Miami Marlins
Tyler Kinley/Justin Lawrence - Colorado Rockies

Injured

Devin Williams - back
Jhoan Duran - oblique
Paul Sewald - oblique

Steals Department

One of the best base stealers in the minor leagues got the call to the majors when the Mariners promoted Jonatan Clase from Triple-A Tacoma on Monday. The 21-year-old outfielder swiped 79 bases across the minors last season with 20 homers, displaying big-time fantasy upside. The question with Clase is his hit tool. He struck out 28 percent of the time in Double-A last season and hit .222 across 489 plate appearances. It was only 53 plate appearances in Triple-A this year, but he had a 22.6 percent strikeout rate before getting the call. If he can hit enough, Clase will make a tremendous impact on the bases. In Boston, Wilyer Abreu is making the most of his opportunities on the bases. Manager Alex Cora stated Monday that he’ll be in the lineup every day against right-handed pitching. While he’s not hitting much so far, he’s done a good job drawing walks and being aggressive on the bases, with four steals in his last five games. The 24-year-old outfielder is widely available and could help supplement some speed in deeper leagues. He also has a bit of power if he can lower his strikeout rate after hitting 24 homers across Triple-A and the majors last season.