For the better part of two decades, we debated prospective winners of the Ballon d’Or in very simple and increasingly annoying fashion.
It was Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo, more often the former than the latter, and the Internet yelled at itself about how one only did it in Spain or the other one didn’t make his teammates better or whose commercials, abs, or Internet yellers were better, blah blah blah.
Now, with Ronaldo and Messi in the relative wilderness and a pro-Europe bias slighting the Copa America in comparison to the EURO, we can truly have a debate about who’s the best player in football for 2024.
[ BALLON D’OR: Men’s shortlist revealed | Women’s shortlist ]
Spoiler alert: I don’t think the debate is exceptionally difficult this year and I’ll detail the rationale for my winner below. But I also have to acknowledge that this could be a year that the voters look beyond, “Who won the major club competition and a major national team tournament?”
For the record, Dani Carvajal would win under that rationale after winning EURO with Spain, and the Champions League and La Liga with Real Madrid. He scored in the UCL final versus Dortmund, too. Nacho Fernandez and Joselu are probably bummed not to get nods. We jest, Dani. You’ll understand as a big fan of play-acting!
Anyway, if Carvajal wins the Ballon d’Or they should retire the whole thing. Very good player. Had a great year. A right back winning would be fun. It would all be great banter, but wow.
There are a few other great stories who deserve to be honored on the shortlist but are likely out of the discussion for winning it. Ademola Lookman crossed many borders in his club journey before driving Atalanta to the Europa League title and Nigeria to the AFCON final. Artem Dovbyk was tremendous in Girona’s eyebrow-raising run to a Champions League spot. Granit Xhaka left Arsenal and then barely lost while being Xabi Alonso’s iron man as Bayer Leverkusen ended Bayern’s deathgrip on the Bundesliga.
Who should win the 2024 Ballon d’Or? Clearing the field
Let’s narrow it down to a dozen or so candidates. First, are there players whose statistics or pure dominance are enough to push them over the field despite not winning a trophy? Artem Dovbyk, Cole Palmer, Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, Mats Hummels, Harry Kane, Martin Odegaard, and Declan Rice would be included here. Could an argument be made for a couple of the English players on the list, as EURO finalist status might make Kane’s ridiculous Bundesliga goal haul and UCL semifinal run or Rice’s incredible Arsenal season more attractive? Seems unlikely.
Vitinha, Granit Xhaka, Florian Wirtz, Hakan Calhanoglu, Ruben Dias, Erling Haaland, and Phil Foden boast domestic titles. Foden was Premier League Player of the Year and went to the EURO final, and voters will likely also remember that Man City dominated Real Madrid in the UCL quarters and were hard-luck losers. Haaland’s start to this season will also be living large with voters, so he, too, could push ahead.
Alex Grimaldo was a driving force for Bayer Leverkusen’s nearly-perfect season and also won EURO with Spain, but was behind Marc Cucurella and only played twice in the tournament.
Let’s pull Foden, Rice, and Kane forward from that bunch.
Who should win the 2024 Ballon d’Or? Voters have favored European winners
We’re left with six UEFA Champions League winners, including one who also won La Liga and EURO in Spanish right back Dani Carvajal. The rest? Fede Valverde, Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham, Toni Kroos, and Antonio Rudiger.
Kane and Rice are here despite a lack of club and country silverware, though both played in the EURO final, while Lamine Yamal has a EURO title and Athletic Bilbao’s Nico Williams a EURO and Copa del Rey.
Haaland deserves to be here for sheer dominance, and Mbappe makes the cut in a similar manner.
Then we have the intriguing cases of EURO/Premier League winner Rodri and Copa America/Serie A winner Lautaro Martinez.
So.... who wins?
Harry Kane (England and Bayern Munich)
Antonio Rudiger (Germany and Real Madrid)
Nico Williams (Spain and Athletic Bilbao)
Lamine Yamal (Spain and Barcelona)
Erling Haaland (Norway and Manchester City)
Toni Kroos (Germany and Real Madrid)
Declan Rice (England and Arsenal)
Kylian Mbappe (France and PSG/Real Madrid)
Dani Carvajal (Spain and Real Madrid)
Jude Bellingham (England and Real Madrid)
Phil Foden (England and Manchester City)
Lautaro Martinez (Argentina and Inter Milan)
Federico Valverde (Uruguay and Real Madrid)
Vinicius Jr (Brazil and Real Madrid)
Rodri (Spain and Manchester City)
Ballon d’Or final three: And the (predicted) winner is....
There is no question to me that Vini Jr and Rodri both make the final three. The third spot is so much more difficult to choose because voters can be swayed by goals (Haaland, Mbappe, Kane) and silverware (Carvajal, Lautaro). There’s also the career achievement pulls for players like Kroos or Rudiger. The fact that Kroos has never been final three is embarrassing, and perhaps should push him ahead of my sentimental choice and his club midfield mate: Uruguay’s Federico Valverde.
Kroos, Lautaro Martinez, Haaland, or Kane could end up in the last three, but what about Foden or Bellingham? Bellingham’s EURO dramatics in front of goal could stand taller in the memory than his actual performances, while his actual performances were sensational on a near-weekly basis with Real Madrid. Foden’s Premier League season helped City withstand injuries to Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland, and he helped England to the EURO final as well. But could there be two City players in the final three, because there’s one more about to get his flowers and it’s not debatable.
The case for Vinicius Junior is strong. He was ridiculously good in the Champions League — instrumental in every knockout round tie before capping the scoring in the 2-0 final — and is flying again for Real this early La Liga season. Brazil’s disappointing Copa America could hurt him when it comes to the final decision.
I think if you asked, “Who was the best footballer in the world this year?” though, the answer is very clear. Regardless of position or statistics, Rodri is the key component of the most-complete club and best-performing country in the world. The thankless stuff he does at Man City may often be quiet, but his eight goals and nine assists in last season’s Premier League was eye-popping for a “holding” midfielder. And, of course, he played nearly every minute of Spain’s EURO run before a halftime injury in the final.
Positionally we’ve seen players like him overlooked in the past. And we’ve seen players with peerless seasons lose before, but Rodri not winning could be a bigger slight than N’Golo Kante losing out to Luka Modric in 2018 or Robert Lewandowski to Messi after the pandemic.